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Neil Evans' Tips For Forbes (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track improving to around Soft 5 and rail true so should play fairly even

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

We start a big Cup day card on an improving track with the maiden sprinters at set weights. This should be fought out by the debutants headed by 4YO mare 9. Foxy Kim (Foxwedge x Kimash by Jeune) who has trialled smartly for the Joseph-Jones stable at Canberra, and is bred to ultimately get over much further.

Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 4YO mare 6. Bally Brook (Hinchinbrook x Ballykisheen by Galileo) who has trialled well for the Wanda Ings stable, and experienced rider goes on. Jerilderie 4YO 3. Money In Mud showed sharp improvement getting back on firmer footing last start, and leading country rider has been booked; while include Wagga mare 10. Night Terror who is still searching for that break-through win after 25 starts, but has been freshened up for this shorter trip after running on strongly in her last few.

How to play it: Foxy Kim to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Keen here on progressive Dubbo 5YO 7. Tank Attack from the Mark Jones stable who has been charging home into a place for much of this prep, and carries an edge in race fitness on most of these. Drawn to get plenty of cover, and looks well treated at the weights.

Dangers: The debut run of Bathurst colt 5. Red Beryl back in summer was sound, and the form from that race has been solid. Trialled okay, and will be running on. Canberra 4YO 8. Bonhomie has been up for a while and mixing form, but drops to his lightest career weight, and is drawn to get a soft run just off the speed.

How to play it: Tank Attack to win and quinella 5 and 7. Odds and Evens: Odds.

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Still with the maidens, but up to the mile in a wide open affair. Like the way improving 4YO 3. Godfrey Park from the Brett Thompson yard at Gulgong has attacked the line late in his last couple. Can peak now with the blinkers going on, and stable apprentice takes 3kg off.

Dangers: Hawkesbury 5YO 2. Bartandthequeen can peak third-up after working home okay in two runs at home, and trainer has tinkered with the gear. Gosford mare 10. Queen Lear will relish the step up in trip after doing her best work late in last two; while include improving Albury mare 11. Signal Hill who strikes peak fitness after four runs back from a spell.

How to play it: Godfrey Park to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Plenty of chances again in this one. On sheer ability 5YO Cowra mare 5. Brunela has them covered, but she doesn't always produce. Her two runs back from a lengthy spell have been okay, and the step up in distance, and senior rider jumping on, are two significant pluses.

Dangers: Canberra 4YO 4. Fever Tree was a dominant maiden winner at home three runs back, and not far off a handy one at Goulburn last start. Should find a nice trailing position, but taking on some better ones here. Narromine mare 6. Wild Rocket flew home for a dominant maiden win at Dubbo easily beating Godfrey Park who goes around 35 minutes prior so an instant form reference will be there, although her low draw is a concern for one who likes to settle a fair way back. Wagga 6YO 1. Would Be King produced his best run in a CL2 at Narromine after a narrow maiden win four runs back, but would need to improve further drawn off the track.

How to play it: Brunela each way and trifecta 4,5,6/1,4,5,6/1,4,5,6. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Doubt there are many better gallopers in country NSW with a single win to their name than Dubbo 5YO 4. Spilia. Incredibly took 18 starts to break his maiden sweeping home in dominant fashion at home before charging late again to narrowly miss in a stronger race at Warren when heavily backed. Has unlocked the "engine" since moving up from Victoria a couple of months back, and only concern is getting a clear run from the 400m settling back off the inside draw.

Dangers: Progressive Albury 3YO 5. Previso is the clear danger after flooding home to win his maiden second-up at Dubbo beating the handy Tank Attack who goes around earlier. Mudgee 4YO 1. Harley Fat Boy has plenty of finishing ability as well landing his maiden three runs back before rocketing home at Dubbo to beat all but the winner last start. Tough task, though, drawn right off the track on this much smaller circuit. Improving Dubbo 4YO 3. Arriverderci was specked in the market when finishing on late behind Harley Fat Boy at Dubbo, and will appreciate a little more ground.

How to play it: Spilia to win and quinella 4 and 5. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 2 HCP (1100m):

Smart 3YO filly 4. Superbellaa makes the trip out from Rosehill shooting for her third win from only five starts for the Less Curtis yard. Boxed on well in a smart 2YO metro field in heavy going six weeks back before easily accounting for a good CL3 field at Wellington after stalking the speed. The one to beat over this trip.

Dangers: Gosford 4YO mare 8. Last Chance Dance resumed with an impressive maiden win at Dubbo, and is drawn to get a lovely trail. Speaking of making the trip, nice mare 7. Boom And Zoom arrives all the way from Moruya off a fast-finishing maiden win, and a game front-running effort in a handy CL1 at home; while big watch on Hawkesbury 4YO 1. Just A Horse who resumes with no public trial, but led all the way first-up last prep to break his maiden at big odds.

How to play it: Superbellaa to win. Odds and Evens: Split


Superbellaa wins at Wellington on July 20

Race 7 BM 58 HCP (1400m):

Another very open battle, with several hopes. Loved the way improving 5YO mare 14. Dirty Digby from the Connie Greig yard at Dubbo swamped them in a CL1 at Moree last start, and deep into the prep extra ground is a natural plus, although not a long run home so will have to get on his bike before the turn.

Dangers: Dubbo 5YO 18. Shwanky Doo has been hitting the line hard from well back all prep, and capable of running the best last 400m in the race. Bathurst 8YO 3. Western Parade has an ordinary winning strike-rate, but in the best form of his career after a dominant front-running win in a BM 58 before run down by a promising one in similar grade last start. Albury 4YO 9. Zaberfeldie has been close-up in his last three, but will need all the breaks drawn in the carpark.

How to play it Dirty Digby each way and trifecta 14,18/3,9,14,18/3,9,14,18. Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 8 FORBES CUP (1600m):

Feature race of the day stacks up well for progressive Scone 5YO 5. Dubai Tycoon from the Brett Cavanough stable who can make it two straight fourth-up this prep. Was close-up in a deep CL3 at home before a dominant BM 80 win at Moree.

Dangers: Consistent Canberra 5YO 2. Gunga Din was terrific weaving through the field and sailing home to land the Narrandera Cup fourth-up. Up in weight and drawn wide, but has plenty of quality. Liked the way Gosford 6YO 3. Highly Desired fought on for a long way resuming over 1400m at Wellington, and has a very smart second-up record. Be surprised if one of those three doesn't win, but 8YO 6. Caszar ran three consecutive second placings before an average effort in that same race behind Highly Desired, and carries the clear local hopes.

How to play it: Dubai Tycoon to win and box exacta 2,3,5. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 9 BM 66 Hcp (1200m):

Tough Scone 6YO 1. Oneness again from the Cavanough yard looks ideally placed despite an awkward draw. Was terrific in a good quality BM 85 sprint at home before only gunned down late this grade over 1400m by stablemate Eiger who then scored a dominant win in a Highway at Rosehill. Drop back in trip is the big key.

Dangers: Canberra mare 14. Onthetake steps up in grade at the right time after an easy BM 58 win at Nowra, and gets a nice drop in the weights. Gosford 5YO 7. In Fiore has powered home into a place in his last couple, and can run over them if he gets the right trail from a wide draw; while Parkes 6YO 10. Risk And Reward keeps knocking on the door, and is best of the rest.

How to play it: Oneness to win. Odds and Evens: Split.


Oneness runs second at Scone on July 10

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Forbes Cup meeting

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