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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Goulburn meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

4. I Am Brazen made amends for an unlucky first career preparation when resuming and winning at Goulburn 21 days ago. The three-year-old filly sat wide without cover, and Punter’s Intelligence recorded she sprinted the second-fastest last 600m sectional of the entire meeting in 33.90. She was brave when challenged late and responded well under the urgings of Brock Ryan to run solid overall time. The filly will have to prove she isn’t just a 1000m specialist when stepping out to 1200m, but she maps to be given every chance and is proven on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Forgive 1. In De Sun Iwilcome’s last start at Kembla, the mare had a slow recovery rate. The start prior at this track/distance and class, she was well backed late in betting from $2.50-$2.25. The 1200m suits, and she can map forward from the kind draw. 3. Eberlee resumes on a very heavy track which isn’t ideal, but she is coming out of time/sectional merit races from last preparation and has trialled well enough. 7. Lady Shenanigans is the likely leader and is rock-hard fit.

How to play it: I Am Brazen WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

I Am Brazen wins first-up at Goulburn on February 17

Hard to get an early read on returning three-year-old 1. Pretty Woman who has had a long time off the scene without an official trial. The filly had an impressive two-year-old campaign with dominant wins at Canberra before having no luck in the G2 Reisling Stakes at Randwick (1200m). She then failed down the Flemington straight and was spelled. The late market will be a strong guide in relation to the fillies’ fitness and if she can reproduce her two-year-old rating figures, she will be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 5. Mentalism knuckled down strongly to hit the line well and broke through for his maiden win at Kembla. He ran fast time and expect him to improve third-up again with the heavy track suiting. 7. Princess Of Meydan hung on out on the tight-turning Wyong track last start and battled on fairly. She has trialled ok since on the Polytrack, and her career peak rating came at this track and distance. 3. Harley Street is rock-hard fit and the likely leader.

How to play it: Pretty Woman WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Pretty Woman’s Black Opal Preview Win at Canberra on February 19

This race has fallen away quickly, with multiple scratching this morning. Forgiving of 11. Typhoon Taavi’s last start at Newcastle, where she raced flat second-up and was found to be lame post-race. The three-year-old fillies prior start at Hawkesbury had merit where she led at a strong pace and sprinted well when running second with a gap to third. That race rated highly relative to the day, and a repeat of that effort will make her hard to catch. Expect Winona Costin to roll forward and control the pace.

Dangers: 4. Pyramid Of Fire is racing well this prep where he was wide first-up at this track and made a long-wide sustained run to place. The three-year-old geldings just got too far back last start and ran on ok. Typhoon Taavi has the starting price profile edge over him, but he looms as the main danger. 7. Imara can improve with the blinkers after being specced on debut $21-$15 and 5. Standover Man has had two quiet trials leading into his debut.

How to play it: Trifecta 11 / 4 / 5,7. Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Typhoon Taavi first-up at Hawkesbury on February 8

2. Peregrination is coming out of fast time/sectional merit races this preparation at the metropolitan level. Although only running fairly in both starts, he gets factors in his favour to produce a form-reversal. His career peak performances have come with the blinkers off, and he maps well with the heavy track being to his advantage.

Dangers: 6. Toretto has hit the line hard in both starts this preparation but some query him getting too far back in the anticipated slow/even tempo and he is back in distance. 4. Tenorino made a long-wide sustained run first-up and ran on well. He is down in grade and fitter. 5. El Prado will get complete control of the pace and market watch if the track is playing leaderish.

How to play it: Peregrination WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Peregrination last start at Canterbury on February 25

2. Murrajong Road was every chance on debut at Canterbury, but he finds a very winnable maiden here back to country grade. The form out of that race has been solid, and if the gelding improves from his first-up effort, he’ll be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 11. Echo Sunshine had all favours at Canberra second-up, but she gets a significant barrier change and looks the likely leader. 13. Ninja Star can improve with the blinkers off and is a knockout chance. 12. Media Chick is rock-hard fit and consistent.

How to play it: Exacta 2 / 11,13. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Murrajong Road first-up at Canterbury on February 18

Open maiden. 18. Smarter Than You was wide with cover when first-up at this track/distance and loomed to win but couldn’t reel in the eventual winner. She ran the fastest final 600m of the entire meeting in 33.72 and the step-up in distance suits. A repeat of her last start figure will put her in the finish and the heavy track won’t worry her. It’s worth noting Tash Burleigh is in fantastic form with 15 winners from her last 100 runners at a profit on turnover rate of 18.8%.

Dangers: 2. Choisirs Choice led at a strong pace and battled on ok last start in a fast time race at this track. He will benefit from stepping back in distance and maps to get all favours. 4. Super Extreme is a first starter who has trialled well enough and is a must market watch.

How to play it: Smarter Than You WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Smarter Than You runs second at Goulburn on February 17

5. Money From The Sky was well-beaten first-up at Kensington over 1400m but was completely not run to suit after settling near last on a very slow pace, and barrier one was a disadvantage. The promising three-year-old colt’s effort had merit after recording the third-fastest last 400m sectional of the entire meeting in 22.52. He strikes a much more suitable race setup with the bigger track and out to 1600m from a wider gate. Two of his three ratings from last preparation are dominant relative to his rivals, and with a more genuine tempo, he can show his true ability. It’s worth noting, he started favourite over subsequent group one winner Profondo when second-up last preparation albeit racing flat that day.

Dangers: 11. Our Belle Fille and 13. Taizai come out of the same Kensington race last start, and both ran well. Our Belle Fille was also unsuited and her last 600m sectional was only a tick behind Money From The Sky. The filly was 35 days between runs, and Rory Hutchings can use barrier one to his advantage and settle closer with a tactical map advantage. Taizai was well fancied late in betting when $4.80-$4.20 and tried hard. She has a more awkward gate but can roll forward with an even pace anticipated. 9. Diva Diva is a knockout chance coming out of time/sectional merit races and has a positive map.

How to play it: Money From The Sky WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Money From The Sky first-up at Kensington on February 16

6. Pretty Amazing is a nice type with an improver’s ratings profile and has key attributes to step in grade. She was dominant first-up at Newcastle and then was ultra-impressive, winning at Canterbury 21 days ago. The three-year-old filly was completely not run to suit at the rear and ran the fastest final 600m/400m/200m sectionals of the entire meeting in 34.21/22.63/11.41. Expect her to go back from the wide draw, but she can overcome this with the bigger track suiting, and 1600m third-up is ideal.

Dangers: 3. Hope In Your Heart has improved each run this preparation and her last start effort at Randwick in the Group 1 Surround Stakes (1400m) had hidden merit. She had the pace & bias against her and ran on strongly, indicating that she is looking for 1600m now. The filly returns to her home track and all her peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. William Pike retains the ride, and she can settle closer. Market watch 9. Empress El who was well-fancied first-up in her Australian debut, and is proven on the wet after winning in New Zealand on debut. 2. Gin Martini and 8. Ellenmac are knockout chances.

How to play it: Pretty Amazing WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Pretty Amazing wins at Canterbury second-up on February 18

Tricky race. 10. Crosscheck had excuses last start at Rosehill. She has been racing against stronger opposition and is rock-hard fit with a soft draw. The five-year-old mare excels on rain-affected ground and all her peak figures can put her in the finish. Each Way.

Dangers: 2. Travest is back in distance but is 41 days between runs. The five-year-old gelding has multiple winning figs and rain-affected ground suits. 4. Too Good To Be Tru and 5. Danish Prince go in all exotics and are knockout chances.

How to play it: Crosscheck E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Crosscheck last start at Rosehill on February 19

4. Healthy Beauty has come back improved this preparation after two solid trials and then won first-up dominantly in fast time at Canberra. The three-year-old filly was not ridden out and went through the line full of energy. She produces all her peak figures/performances when on rain-affected ground. Robbie Dolan retains the ride and will have options from a middle gate to pursue the best ground if there is a bias and the step up to 1600m looks ideal.

Dangers: 1. Stylbender was wide and had excuses running on solidly at this track/distance second-up, and there has since been a subsequent winner. He is ready to peak third-up, and the blinkers go back on with heavy ground suiting. 9. Cartography was outpaced when the tempo quickened last start at Nowra and then picked himself up to finish strongly. 6. Jalmari was run to suit and ran on well in rainy conditions at Canberra. He is trained by the smart Danny Williams and the wider draw suits. 7. Roshan sat outside the leader and was suited battling on well at Newcastle. He looks the likely leader and is rock-hard fit.

How to play it: Healthy Beauty WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Healthy Beauty wins first-up at Canberra on February 25

Best Bet: Race 8 # 6 - Pretty Amazing

Next Best: Race 7 # 3 - Money From The Sky

Quaddie:

Leg 1: 3,11
Leg 2: 3,6
Leg 3: 2,4,5,10
Leg 4: 1,4

Combinations = 32.

All the fields, form and replays for Friday’s Goulburn meeting