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Neil Evans' Tips For Wellington (Sunday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 10 & Rail True:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

We start the feature Cup day card with the maidens over the short course. This suits nicely second-up for three-year-old 2. Scarzel who was swamped when fresh in a much deeper maiden. Fitter now, and can give a big sight over this distance with winkers coming off.

Dangers: Watch the betting on 3. The Big Seal who resumes for a second prep off a nice trial, and bred to handle rain-affected going. Metro two-year-old 6. Inequality has early speed and is third-up.

How to play it: Scarzel to win.
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Very moderate and open sprint at set weights. Provincial-based Fastnet Rock three-year-old 6. Oakfield King hasn't been knocked about at the trials, and debuts for a good fresh stable with a senior rider aboard. Can settle back behind a good speed and finish hard.

Dangers: Local mare 10. Couture resumes without publicly trialling, but was never far from the money in five runs last prep. Expect a much better effort from 5. Monkey Rat; while 11. Love Marilyn is hard fit and draws the inside.

How to play it: Oakfield King to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Some real battlers in this who have had a stack of attempts without success. From a softer draw second-up, progressive provincial filly 12. Zippy Power is the one to beat. Missed narrowly hitting the line fresh, and can settle closer from this draw.

Dangers: Underrated four-year-old mare 11. My Khaleesi is a threat fourth-up. Likes to settle back and work home, although has had very little luck in three runs back, and not surprisingly a more senior rider goes on. Blinkers come off, and she has a superior closing 300m. Keep safe improving four-year-old 4. McLellan who has been working home okay.

How to play it: Zippy Power to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Promising and lightly raced So You Think filly 3. Show Me Your Love is the one to beat second-up from the inside draw. Swept home for a dominant first-up maiden win at Mudgee in heavy ground. Was scratched from her home track meeting on Saturday, and also from a very winnable race last week to be saved for this.

Dangers: Improving filly 2. Bondadoso dug in hard to win her maiden by a whisker fourth-up at Hawkesbury, although also has a tricky gate and more weight. Included in exotics 8. Starlink behind an impressive maiden win in heavy ground; and 4. Soloist who continues to find the line.

How to play it: Show Me Your Love to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1100m):

Improving mare 6. Matter Of Factor draws to get a soft run back in the field, and is ready to win again third-up off a long break. Hit the line late behind a handy galloper in weaker grade at Canberra, and carries 4.5kg less here with a superior jockey taking over.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old 2. Anchor's Point really attacked the line behind a handy sprinter last start after a smart maiden win four weeks earlier; while honest 4. Olympic Time second-up; 7. Shooting Zaa fifth-up with a change of rider; and 8. Fox Spirit also with a much stronger hoop aboard; all go in wider exotics.

How to play it: Matter Of Factor each way
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1100m):

Same grade and distance recipe here, although shapes more clear-cut with lightly raced filly 3. Brief Statement who can bounce back hard after tailing off third-up on a very heavy track in much stronger Highway grade. Had previously hit the line to beat all bar the winner in two handy Class 1s.

Dangers: Tough mare 1. Rebecca's Quest won a similar race two starts back before outclassed in deeper provincial grade only five days ago. Track the market on 4. My Belladonna resuming behind a quiet trial.

How to play it: Brief Statement to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (900m):

Back to the short course augurs well for five-year-old mare 5. Moetta who can strike second-up. Tracked the speed before just running out of condition when resuming from a lengthy break, and looks well weighted in this company considering he's been placed in higher grades.

Dangers: Speedy nine-year-old 1. I Am Capitan is also better placed over this scamper trip after being swamped in three runs this prep, and the big weight hike has been off-set with a 3kg weight allowance. Led all the way in his only previous start on this course last sprin; while 7. I Love Lucy and 8. Expect A Hero go in trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Moetta to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 8 WELLINGTON CUP (1700m):

Feature race looks the ticket for progressive Randwick four-year-old 3. Major Artie who comes back from a superior metropolitan race, and shoots for three wins from his last four. Tracked the speed before finishing best at The Valley under a similar weight, then held ground in even deeper grade at Sandown before holding off a smart finisher at Eagle Farm. Back a little in trip four weeks between runs, and as long as he gets across from an awkward gate, will take plenty of beating.

Dangers: Talented four-year-old import 5. Sibaaq is a big threat after an impressive first Australian run hitting the line late in BM 78 company at the Gold Coast. Before leaving the UK won two of his last three up to a UK 90 rating level. Must keep safe four-year-old stablemate to the top selection 13. So United who can peak third-up over more ground; while tough seven-year-old 4. Casino Mondial who gets some weight relief fifth-up; and last start provincial Midway winner 7. Knight who steps up in trip; are both each-way chances.

How to play it: Major Artie to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 9 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1400m):

Provincial seven-year-old 7. Big Surprise drops in class fifth-up;

Dangers: and 8. Ferus has been freshened up via a trial win, and won his only previous start at this track 10 weeks back.

How to play it: Big Surprise to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 12. ZIPPY POWER
R4 3. SHOW ME YOUR LOVE

BEST VALUE:
R5 6. MATTER OF FACTOR

All the fields, form and replays for Sunday's Wellington Cup meeting at Gilgandra

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