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By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9 and rail True

We open a Showcase meeting with the maidens on a track deep into heavy territory with more rain predicted. With the benefit of a tidy soft track debut against better opposition, improving filly 8. Miss Thatcher can strike at her second start. Settled back last at Kembla before making up a stack of ground, and the extra 200m is a natural plus, with a gear change made.

Dangers: First starter, provincial colt 6. Seventies Hit found the line well in a trial and drew to get cover.

How to play it: Miss Thatcher to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Well bred Victorian mare 8. Allegorical has a real edge in heavy ground, and can make it two straight at the track. In a change of tactics, she led from barrier to box in similar conditions here 18 days ago, and from a low draw looms as the one to stop dropping back to the shorter trip.

Dangers: Liked the way Albury five-year-old 1. My Bold Boy stuck on hard after leading on the synthetic at Ballarat first-up, and even better suited back on turf here where he led for a long way in a CL2 the start prior. Capable mare 7. Moon Dancer resumes off two quiet trials, and is also bred to handle the ground; while both 4. Chillie Cod third-up; and 6. Miss Elsie May fourth-up; go in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Allegorical to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Still over the short course, and that shapes beautifully for lightly raced mare 8. Rosie's Gift who resumes behind a quiet heavy track trial. Beat a handy maiden field from the front fresh last time, and while drawn to control the tempo up front, is also capable of sitting just off the speed.

Dangers: Home track filly 7. Supido Beauty bounced to the front on debut at Gundagai on a bog track and hung on for a narrow win. Right at home in these conditions having previously won a wet track trial, but is under the odds against a few of these. Included in exotics local four-year-old 4. Sir Savaluca who is hard fit and draws well; and another debut winner in heavy ground from over the border 5. Tomboulder who drops in weight.

How to play it: Rosie's Gift to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Improving Canberra mare 12. Witness To Love is primed to break through back down on the limit weight and deep into her prep. Has tracked the speed before finishing okay in her last two, and bred to thrive on heavy tracks.

Dangers: Despite being beaten a whisker in tougher provincial grade first-up, prepared to risk improving five-year-old 3. Ribeauville up 2kg over 100m further. Keep safe 1. Medal who is searching for this distance third-up; expect sharp improvement from 6. My Brother Bob fourth-up.

How to play it: Witness To Love each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Open and weak race for this class. Like five-year-old and second-up BM 74 winner 1. Free State who is building a sound record on rain-affected ground, and gets right back into the contest at the weights after a 3kg claim.

Dangers: Keep safe tough six-year-old 4. Smiler Marshall who has been given 26 days since a game effort beaten under three lengths in a much deeper Highway run on a heavy track. Consistent mare 9. Mathrin who has only missed a place twice from nine starts in heavy going; 10. Big Steve who surged home to win a BM 58 third-up; and 11. Decker who resumes off a handy soft track trial; are all capable of running into the minor end of the money.

How to play it: Free State to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Back out to the mile and there are a stack of chances in this. Now tough and lightly raced provincial four-year-old 12. Steve Steve Steve has won a second race at this track across only five starts, he can take the next step. Went to the front on a Heavy 10 rating here 18 days ago and boxed on enormous through arguably inferior ground. Drops 2kg for this tougher test, and likely to be ridden a little quieter from the draw. Thrives in the heavy and capable of winning a midweek metropolitan race.

Dangers: Provincial five-year-old 7. Victory At Omaha won two straight up to CL3 level before being swamped in a deeper race at Kembla, and all his best form is in rain-affected going; while 13. Choccy Gaf is clear on the next line.

How to play it: Steve Steve Steve each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Tough Victorian eight-year-old 2. Yeldarb is ready to win again carrying his lightest weight in a long time. Hit the ling strong in two heavy track runs at Bendigo either side of a metropolitan flop, and the little drop in distance is a plus. Has a 30 percent winning strike rate in heavy ground from 19 starts, and was scratched from Sandown on Wednesday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Typically, in these conditions they're queuing up. Promising Victorian five-year-old 8. Magnetic draws to either lead or sit right behind and will give a big sight rising in distance third-up. Was only swamped in the last few strides by a smart one here 18 days ago after bolting in the previous run in similar grade, and bred to thrive on heavy ground. Must include 9. Seventh Seal who has also built an impressive record from 25 starts on all ground, and draws to get a cosy trail right behind the speed. Included in exotics 1. Bombdiggity down in class third-up.

How to play it: Yeldarb each way and box trifecta 1,2,8,9
Odds and Evens: Split

Expect enough second-up improvement from 4. Lockup The Kittens who is well placed after a stack of scratchings.

Dangers: Improving mare 10. Grand Sassy heads the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Lockup The Kittens to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

BEST BETS:
R2 8. ALLEGORICAL
R8 4. LOCKUP THE KITTENS

BEST VALUE:
R6 12. STEVE STEVE STEVE

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Wagga meeting