By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1400m to WP and True the remainder
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m): |
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Liked the debut run of Albury-based 1. Chevrolet Star in very heavy ground. Will likely drift back again from the wider barrier, but extra trip is a big plus, and naturally first time out on a drier surface.
Dangers: Early pronounced favourite 2. Ghost Walker can improve and closed off well second-up behind a heavily backed winner at Goulburn, although wouldn't be diving into too short a price. Watch the betting on 3. Kermandie River, a colt by Group 1 winner Kermadec on debut for a local stable behind a string of trials, winning the latest comfortably on the Riverside track; while 4. The Bay Fox is over the odds from a more economical draw. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Chevrolet Star to win
Race 2 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m): |
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Open affair, but improving and consistent five-year-old 5. Ken'ker is ready to win again deep into the prep. Has been beaten by narrow margins in two runs since a dominant maiden win, and now finds a race with less depth. Drawn to get the right run just behind the speed with cover.
Dangers: Lightly raced 15. Triumphant Tonic is drawn wide, but that should be no concern naturally drifting back over a longer trip after flooding home fresh to miss narrowly first-up over the border for the new stable. Locally-trained 16. Southern Dancer is good value fourth-up and first time over the mile; while 11. Mystic Diva is a knock-out chance at good odds coming off a fast-finishing third-up maiden win when backed from $4.40 into $3.60. Include Victorian visitors, hard fit 8. Slate Ripper and 9. Vonk fourth-up; in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Ken'ker to win
Race 3 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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Confident home track mare 1. Miss Mikki Isle can go one better at her second start. Led on debut here in heavy ground before being collared by a heavily backed and smart winner. That form should stack up well, and fitter now, again draws to roll forward and dictate.
Dangers: Big market watch on Grunt three-year-old 7. Under The Hood who has been working well, and debuts for the Danielle Seib stable at Goulburn from a wide draw, and behind a quiet trial. At big odds keep safe 5. Divron, resuming for only her third start with no public trials, but this leading local yard has a good strike rate when they're fresh. 9. Bubble Tea can improve further after two fair efforts on the Canberra synthetic to start her career; while 16. Istoria Girl resumes with a 3kg claim off two trials.
How to play it: Miss Mikki Isle to win
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m): |
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Plenty of chances in this sprint headed by improving local mare 5. Dolly who resumes for a third prep. Was right in the money across three runs in autumn, including a dominant Super Maiden win as a heavily backed favorite. No official trials, and will likely get back from the wide gate, but comes to hand sharply and has a superior turn of foot in the run home.
Dangers: Victorian stallion 1. Kingwell resumes off a handy trial, and draws the fence. Expect sharp improvement second-up from 3. Sunrise who drops back from a tougher provincial Midway CL1 when having her first outing since crossing the Tasman. Another one from over the border 4. Time Angel led all the way here at his second start. Watch the betting on two runners resuming, metro mare 6. Ludovica who has had two easy trials; and lightly raced 7. Take The Rap who won here on debut in April before finishing a long way back behind a very talented carnival winner. 9. Spirit Lake can also run into minor money third-up.
How to play it: Dolly to win
Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m): |
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Dubbo four-year-old 1. Bravezel can improve sharply second-up at good odds under a significant 4.5kg weight drop and change of jockey. Struck trouble back in the field under a big weight when having his first outing for the Clint Lundholm stable since transferring down from the Far North Coast where he won two straight last prep. That was his first run for six months, advantaged by the extra furlong, and this is no harder.
Dangers: The market will tell a story around resuming Canberra mare 2. Miss Ghent. Comes off a quiet synthetic trial, but normally comes to hand early in the prep, and significantly blinkers are back on. Must include 3. Missouk who is tracking to peak fourth-up over 100m further. 4. The Big Shamrock won three starts ago and draws to get a soft run, but shapes under the odds on dry ground. Expect second-up improvement from Victorian 7. Bold Triumph getting on to a firmer surface. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Bravezel each way
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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Very little between the leading contenders here, although 6. Gypsy Power from the same stable as the previous on top selection, is well placed to make it two straight third-up. Was $4.00 into $3.30 when running over the top of them late at home in a similar graded race. Again the jockey switch is a big plus, and he can go on to win better races.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for progressive 4. Tokyo Ice who also scored a well deserved CL1 win second-up. Drawn to get good cover just off the speed. Watch the betting on 5. Trifecta Ruby who in typical stable fashion resumes without officially trialling, but is a first-up winner and gets in well at the weights after the claim. Keep safe 8. Xspiritous back on drier ground third-up; white 2. Mooshaka is the next best having run home well behind the on top selection third-up.
How to play it: Gypsy Power to win
Race 7 IAN REID SPRINT OPEN HCP (1200m): |
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In a competitive feature race, it shapes best for Canberra-based 2. Love Shuck who is a pure dry tracker. Ran home well to win a synthetic BM 70 three starts back before two mixed efforts in much tougher metro company. Draws to get cover off speed, and has won both starts at this track.
Dangers: Smart 6. Hulm has been freshened, and boasts an impressive 50 percent win rate from eight starts. Won three straight up to BM 74 level before doing too much work in front at The Valley four weeks back. Progressive mare 10. Sheila has won her last two, the latest driving home from well off the speed at Albury, but this is significantly tougher. Watch the betting on 11. Dorami if he starts here and not Canberra on Friday. Has ability, and resumes from a handy draw. Include in all exotics 1. Tulla Park who has won two of his last three on the synthetic in Canberra, but tackling a deeper field here from a tricky draw; and 13. Eamonn's Memory tracking to peak fourth-up.
How to play it: Love Shuck to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m): |
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The most open race of the day is saved for last, and the value is there for improving 3. Stockholm who will relish a drop back in class and depth from a CL3 Highway at Rosehill fourth-up. Was a dominant BM 58 winner prior when backed from $4.60 into $3.30, and can find the right trail just off the speed.
Dangers: Progressive local 8. Sorry Sunshine surged home to beat a thinner field at Albury by more than six lengths, but tends to come right back to the pack on drier ground.Keep safe too at good odds 4. Nats Enough whose last couple of efforts have been better than they look on paper, and also gets a timely drop in grade. 5. Yam tracked the speed before driving well clear for a dominant fourth-up win in heavy going at Albury, but tackling some better ones here; while both 5. Madame Meteor and 12. Crazy Atom can run into minor money.
How to play it: Stockholm to win
BEST BETS:
R2 5. KEN'KER
R3 1. MISS MIKKI ISLE
BEST VALUE:
R4 5. DOLLY
All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Wagga meeting