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Neil Evans' Tips For Wagga (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 7 and rail True:

Race 1 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m):

We start with a Heat of the Rising Star, and love the placement here of consistent home track mare 3. Miss Elsie May who drops a little in distance three weeks between runs. Hasn't missed a place in her last five, including a barrier-to-box CL2 win three starts ago, and she draws to roll forward and lead or sit just behind and off the fence. At her best on soft ground, and is the best weighted runner in the race after Molly's claim.

Dangers: Canberra seven-year-old 2. Feel The Knight is the clear threat dropping in grade fifth-up, with winkers back on, and afforded plenty of weight relief after the 4kg claim; while 5. Carnival Miss resumes.

How to play it: Miss Elsie May to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES CLASS 1 HCP (1065m):

Emerging three-year-old 3. Mogo Magic jumped to the front on debut and sailed away by nearly seven lengths. Similar track conditions again here, and will likely roll to the top again from the same barrier. Rated a good thing with a big rival not running.

Dangers: Gap to the rest headed by four-year-old 2. Deepmind who hasn't started since an impressive second start win in March. Draws the inside for the leading Canberra stable.

How to play it: Mogo Magic to win and quinella 2 and 3
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1675m):

Very average middle distance maiden, and that augurs well for lightly raced local mare 8. Sledge who peaks third-up over further, and crucially backed on preferred rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Improving 7. Old Newmarket can also hit a peak after three runs back in only plain company, and the wider draw will likely suit his pattern. Both 2. Golden River Gift fifth-up with blinkers added; and Victorian 6. Impardoo with blinkers replacing winkers for the first time; are over the odds.

How to play it: Sledge to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 CLASS 2 & ABOVE BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1065m):

Another one over the sprint trip should be dominated by those around the top of the weights headed by progresive home track mare 2. Lipstick Swing who shoots for a third straight win this prep at only her fourth start. Despite rising in weight, should again roll to the front and take some running down, with the leading regional jockey sticking like glue.

Dangers: Tough three-year-old 1. Oakey's Choice led them a merry dance in front in a country CL1 before boxing on fairly in much tougher CL3 Highway grade. Included in exotics 3. Newtown Is Coming and 7. Red Kanzai who gets an important gear change.

How to play it: Lipstick Swing to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1800m):

Now for a Heat of the Wagga Stayers Series, and two runners drawn alongside each other are shaping to fight this out. Improving and light raced local 2. Cliff House is the one on the way up, and can make it two wins from his last four in only the first prep. After bolting in his maiden, just didn't finish it off in a narrow defeat here 19 days ago, but this is no harder and suited now getting out past the mile.

Dangers: Naturally, Canberra-based 4. Mammoth Mountain is a serious threat gunning for three on the bounce. Defied a betting drift to sweep past a hot favourite at home on Melbourne Cup day, and any further rain is a big plus. Capable five-year-old 5. Tullaghan copped a poor ride third-up, but his previous two closing efforts were solid enough for a race like this. Watch the betting on 10. Bubbler who draws inside fourth-up, with a significant drop in weight.

How to play it: Cliff House to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Tough and open sprint for the maidens, with several chances. Another one up the road from Albury, lightly raced five-year-old 2. Jack's All Magic looks well placed to strike third-up. Ran home late in heavy ground here when resuming before being ridden closer and didn't quite hit the line. Much better off back on a big track where he can settle back off the fence and be produced at the right time. Bred to thrive in rain-affected going.

Dangers: The market will be a solid indicator with ex-Victorian four-year-old 4. Sky Warrior who resumes off a 23 week break for his first run in the new Albury stable. Improving three-year-old 5. Air Play hit the line impressively on debut, but drawn wide here; 10. Laurel Hill has closed into a place in two runs to start her career; while 12. Rockbarton Road can also figure second-up from a good draw after doing her best work late in heavy ground when fresh.

How to play it: Jack's All Magic to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 7 MAIDEN HCP (1065m):

Doesn't get a whole lot easier, although it shapes nicely for emerging filly 6. Tablet facing the starter for only the second time. Was a little soft in betting when leading for a long way on debut at Warren, but has reportedly trained on well, and had previously trialled well enough in wet ground. Much stronger and more experienced jockey takes over.

Dangers: Debutant Atomic mare 4. Bellatomic was close up in an Albury trial, and is an obvious market watch debuting with key gear additions. Both 2. Hurricane Coni at his second start; and 12. Surround Step fourth-up, and dropping to the limit weight; are capable of running into a place.

How to play it: Tablet to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 FILLIES & MARES CLASS 1 HCP (1065m):

The girl sprinters bring us home, and little separates a few over this trip. Got plenty of time for emerging Press Statement filly 3. Alpine Lady who resumes without publicly trialling. Hit the line from well back on debut here in similar ground before thrashing a handy maiden field next start. Given plenty of time, she'll likely settle back from a wide draw and be very strong late. Was scratched from the Queanbeyan meeting on Sunday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Tough mare 2. Improper kept going hard to win easy fourth-up in near bottomless ground, but taking on a few smarter ones here, although senior country hoop takes the reins. Big watch on 4. Intense Effort who won easy here on debut beating Jack's All Magic who goes around as the top selection earlier in the meeting; while improving mare 1. Constantinou clearly heads the rest second-up.

How to play it: Alpine Lady to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:

R1 3. MISS ELSIE MAY
R4 2. LIPSTICK SWING

BEST VALUE:
R8 3. ALPINE LADY

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Wagga meeting

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