By Neil Evans
Track Heavy 8 and rail out a tricky 7m from 1400m to WP
Race 1 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): |
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We start an open and giant 10-race card with the maidens. Talented Canberra gelding 2. Erwin resumes for a second prep from a wide draw. Was only narrowly beaten twice in three runs last prep both times on rain-affected ground, and the form around him has held up okay.
Dangers: Albury-based 3. Forsureusay responded under a ride to win a recent trial, and debuts from the inside draw with blinkers on. Keep safe 4. King Kong Cod who drops in weight after hitting the line hard in just his second start; while including 9. Carnival Miss in exotics.
How to play it: Erwin to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1400m): |
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Wide open & could be easier landing the exotics than the outright winner. Progressive local four-year-old 7. Bonvalante charged home to just miss in a similar race here third-up, and the winner has since easily won a BM 58 over the border. Right at his peak, and should get enough speed up front to finish over them.
Dangers: Ex-Victorian three-year-old 1. Raphael has solid form ahead of his first run for the new Albury stable off a four-week break, and draws to get a sweet run on speed. Watch the betting on 3. Hombre Grande who can improve sharply after doing nothing on debut here. Keep safe Canberra two-year-old 5. Manderboss who flew home on debut at big odds.
How to play it: Bonvalante to win. Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2500m): |
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Cup Prelude and Heat of the Stayers Series will be an old-fashioned slog. Victorian five-year-old 4. Barmah Al is placed to advantage here, rising in trip. Bolted in from the front on soft ground two runs back before a bit flat late in a handy BM 58.
Dangers: Emerging local four-year-old 1. Kitzbuhel is shooting for three straight wins, also continuing to go up in distance. Loves these conditions and will roll forward from a favourable draw, but a query lumping 64kg and conceding 7kg to the top selection.
How to play it: Barmah Al to win and quinella 1 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1800m): |
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Plenty of hopes in this too headed by Canberra three-year-old 5. Toretto who eased in betting when disappointing at Nowra. Swept home at this track prior for his only win so far, and much better off back on the bigger track and longer straight where he can be ridden quieter back in the field.
Dangers: Improving 6. Vintage Diesel is drawn off the track, but showed a real liking for rain-affected ground surging late to win his maiden at home carrying 2kg more. Despite a poor strike rate, don't discard 7. Ahadi Farasi who is honest, and likes wet ground. Albury five-year-old 2. Saint Henry continues to find ways to get beat, but has more than enough ability to win this, with a significant jockey change. Include 1. Pontman in wider exotics.
How to play it: Toretto to win and first four 2,5,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/1,2,5,6,7. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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Very ordinary sprint for this grade, and that augurs well for six-year-old 1. Mr Brown Fox who has been freshened since leading all the way to win a similar race at Echuca. Comes through some better races than this, and big weight significantly off-set with a 4kg allowance.
Dangers: Improving 2. Seventh Seal hasn't been far away in a string of CL2 affairs, and well weighted after a 4kg claim with blinkers back on. Capable Canberra five-year-old 8. Eurosay resumes off a nice trial with a claim. Draws to find an ideal trail off the speed, but heavy track form is poor. Home track mare 9. Mouse Almighty is consistent, and two of her three wins have come here.
How to play it: Mr Brown Fox each way and box trifecta 1,2,8,9. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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Same deal, although much more depth in this sprint. Like improving mare 8. Super Swish first-up in an open race on a suitably bigger track. No official trials, but comes to hand early, and at her only previous run on a heavy surface made up plenty of late ground.
Dangers: Improving 4. Crimson Hoffa swept home for an impressive win here two starts back, and is making a good fist of carrying big weights. Hard to fathom why seven-year-old 1. Nevada Dane opened at such a big price, resuming. Has a smart fresh record for this grade over the pet trip, and big weight off-set with a 3kg claim. Keep safe 10. Underthespotlight who resumed with a narrow win in a much weaker BM 58.
How to play it: Super Swish each way. Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 7 BENCHMARK 50 HANDP (1300m): |
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The aptly-named Battlers Cup part one sets up nicely for Canberra mare 5. Il Professionale first-up off a near 11-week break. Will settle well back on her preferred rain-affected going, and is the superior fresh sprinter in the race.
Dangers: Watch for local eight-year-old 1. Delivered charging home late. Up sharply in weight, but drops back significantly in grade. Honest four-year-old 3. Pushkar gets an important 3kg claim, and can peak fourth-up. Expecting eight-year-old 9. Kruanui to be snagged back from the wide barrier and saved for one last surge.
How to play it: Il Professionale to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 8 BENCHMARK 50 HANDP (1300m): |
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Now take two for the Battlers, and this is as wide open as you can get. Emerging Canberra two-year-old 10. Encyclopedia can make it back-to-back wins on rain-affected ground. Was dominant from the front at Asbury three weeks back, and while asked to carry the heaviest weight of his career, the drop back in trip is a big plus.
Dangers: Progressive mare 1. Aleda has enough early speed to overcome the outside gate second-up, and by this stage well away from the fence will probably be the best ground anyway. Held on well here resuming off a lengthy break, although a senior rider replaced by a 4kg-claiming rookie. Local three-year-old 5. Nic's Hero resumed with a solid win over this trip, but has to carry 3kg more from a wider draw. Under-rated mare 7. Polyxena comes back a long way in grade from BM 70 Federal fourth-up; while 11. Pay The Deeler second-up; and hard fit 15. Funky Farm; are both knock-out chances at big odds.
How to play it: Encyclopedia each way and box exacta 1,5,10. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 9 OPEN HCP (1300m): |
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Tough six-year-old 1. Up Trumpz has charged into a place from well back in stronger metro grade in his last couple, and is set to break a long run of outs at good odds. Naturally right back up in weight for this, but senior country rider goes back on, and he will be surging home over an ideal trip. A mile over the odds.
Dangers: Rival Victorian six-year-old 2. Yeldarb loves wet tracks, and shoots for two straight this prep either side of the border. Was impressive getting home under a huge weight last start, and looks the best weighted runner here after a 3kg claim. Gap to the rest headed by honest 3. Assault'n'bathory who also comes back to the country grade off a string of tough metro runs. Included in exotics 8. Mad As Zariz who is versatile, and never finished further back than second in four heavy track runs.
How to play it: Up Trumpz each way and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 10 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): |
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We close over the sprint trip for the maidens, and there are a stack of hopes. Victorian filly 9. Mathrin has found the line well in her last two runs on heavy tracks, and will relish the long run home here.
Dangers: Big watch on 1. Arctic Rover who resumes for a new Canberra stable off a long break for only his second start. Yet another change of jockey for 7. Openhimup who's been threatening to win one all prep without much luck, and winkers go back on. Include 4. Coin Drop; and debutant 10. Wee Juggler in trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Mathrin to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R7 5. IL PROFESSIONALE
R9 1. UP TRUMPZ
BEST VALUE:
R8 10. ENCYCLOPEDIA