By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail true.
Race 1 SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): |
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Again we start day two of the Showcase Cup carnival with a very testing maiden, and the rail staying in the True position. In a race of many chances, there's big value around lightly raced home track three-year-old and definite improver 4. Mo Cent second-up. Ran home okay into a place here resuming off a six month spell, and significantly stays at the distance.
Dangers: Lightly raced 8. Sturty is ready to strike third-up after working home late at big odds in a deeper provincial maiden three weeks ago. Big market watch on Divine Prophet filly 10. Divine Ella who debuts off a heavy track trial win for the Paul Murray stable at Kembla. Include 16. Kerma Art resuming off a lengthy break with gear changes behind a solid trial, and was scratched from Thursday's card to run in this. Metro filly 12. Ludovica fourth-up can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Mo Cent each way
Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m): |
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The type of restricted sprint that presents as a real play for exotic punters, with a wide open market and a stack of chances. Local filly 10. Letme Entertainyou is ready to win again deep into the current prep. Came off two fair closing runs in similar company over 1200m to miss narrowly here in a fillies and mares edition of this grade. Like her being drawn to get to the outside, and couldn't be fitter staying at this stage staying at the trip.
Dangers: They'll be queuing up behind starting with metro filly 9. Capicella who is closing in on another win third-up, although drawn even further out. Must respect honest provincial filly 4. Cani Cancan who rises in weight for a clear drop in grade, and beat a handy BM 58 field two starts back. Include both 2. Lunar Solar and 8. Teetotal in all trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Letme Entertainyou to win
Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m): |
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Got plenty of time for progressive Warwick Farm three-year-old 1. Joey D'or who can make it two straight this prep over a furlong further. Returned off a six month spell to park on speed before easily dispatching maiden opposition at Orange, and while this is much deeper, he's bred to race over further especially on the dam's side, and should lap up the extra journey.
Dangers: Tough and improving 5. Future Fund is a clear threat third-up five weeks after charging home to win his maiden over this trip when backed from $3.10 into $2.80. Keep safe as well 7. Dolly, who also comes off an impressive second-up maiden win, and drawn to get plenty of cover just off the speed. Both 2. Finn's The Icon 25 days after winning a weak maiden here on the Riverside track; and 4. The Big Shamrock, resuming with gear changes off an easy trial win over the border; are next best and can add value into exotic returns.
How to play it: Joey D'or to win
Race 4 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1200m): |
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Plenty of chances in this one too, but it shapes ideally for talented Canberra three-year-old 5. Love Shuck second-up with an important first time gear change of blinkers replacing winkers. Was ridden too close when resuming in deeper grade finishing just out of the placings, but the extra furlong suits here, and he's been kept ticking over via a smart trial win. Won his only previous start at this track at Class 2 level back in spring, and can take his winning strike rate to 50 percent from eight starts by saluting.
Dangers: Big market watch on 6. King Gutho who boasts a strong fersh record, and tuned up for this with a dominant trial win at home. Dubbo-based 11. Watch Me Rumble is well over the odds second-up after hitting the line late behind a smart winner of the Wellington Town Plate; while 13. Chasing A Quid is hunting his third win from the last four rising sharply in grade, and is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Love Shuck to win
Race 5 QUEEN OF THE SOUTH FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1400m): |
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The first of the features for the girls sets up nicely for provincial mare 1. Justela third-up. Zipped home from well back to win a BM 66 when fresh before settling much closer and only beaten narrowly in deeper provincial company. That runn reads well for this, despite having to cart a big weight, and she thrives over this distance.
Dangers: Plenty of them led by 2. Stormy Witness who was under four lengths from the winner despite finishing at the back in a much tougher Rosehill BM 78 when coming off a four week break. Naturally back up in weight, but gets in okay after the jockeys claim, and this is also the pet trip. Last start BM 58 winner here 7. Communication looks up to this level, but will need plenty of breaks early from the awkward barrier; while another Victorian 4. Subliminal is hard fit deep into the prep and finished in the placings in her last two, but more depth in this field. At bigger odds, include 11. Miss Athena third-up and down sharply in weight; in all exotics.
How to play it: Justela to win
Race 6 MTC GUINEAS BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1400m): |
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Now the three-year-olds lock horns in the Guineas, and progressive Randwick colt 2. Invincible Spy can produce his best at big odds second-up. Won his first two starts up to the mile in provincial company, and did enough resuming off a five month spell at Kembla. Well placed from the draw under the same weight in this field, and with a superior city rider taking over, he's a mile over the odds.
Dangers: Naturally, rival metro filly 11. It's A Wonder will be hard to stop back sharply in grade third-up. Swept home to thrash her maiden rivals first-up before tackling Saturday Group 3 company failing to run home in heavy ground. Back against her own age and on dry ground, she's right in this. Respect too for emerging 1. Fiddlers Green who only has to get across from the wide draw to be right in the finish after a dominant BM 64 provincial win. Big gap to the rest headed by a stablemate of the former 5. Mickey's Medal who reloads via a soft trial six weeks after an unplaced effort in the Canberra Guineas.
How to play it: Invincible Spy each way
Race 7 WAGGA GOLD CUP (2000m): |
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It wouldn't be a feature and Listed Gold Cup without a stack of chances, and tough-as-teak home tracker 11. Cliff House can defy a swarm of metro raiders, and make it three wins on the bounce. Powered home from the back to claim the Albury Mile second-up before ploughing through the mud to romp in the weaker Gundagai Cup 25 days ago. Naturally there is a stack more depth in this, but he's seemingly getting better the more the distances rise. Has a cracking 50 percent win rate from 14 starts, and gets a crucial 5kg weight drop to the minimum tackling this class.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by smart 7. Fawkner Park who yearns for dry ground, and has been given nearly six weeks and a trial since making a mess of his opponents in the Albury Cup. Tougher here, but if he finds the right sort of trail from the wide draw, will again be charging late. At good odds, keep safe both tough stayer 1. Knights Order resuming for the Waterhouse-Bott stable behind two trials; and 3. Renaissance Woman who finally drops out of carnival group company, finding a third place at Group 3 level after finishing only two lengths from the winner in the Group 1 Coolmore. Victorian 6. Makram with an important gear change can finish in the minor money.
How to play it: Cliff House each way
Race 8 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m): |
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We cap the carnival over the sprint trip, and confident lightly raced and speedy mare 2. Cruizingdafield can resume for only her third start with a win for the new Scott Collings stable at Goulburn. Broke through at second start in metropolitan company back mid winter last year before being sidelined, but given plenty of time since, she looked ready to go winning a Canberra trial last month.
Dangers: Resuming and sparingly mare 5. Best Intent is the immediate threat having only missed a place once in eight starts; while 11. Outback Angel is on the next line down sharply in weight fourth-up. Include at big odds in wider exotic bets, 12. Princess Halo coming off an upset BM 66 win fourth-up.
How to play it: Cruizingdafield to win
BEST BETS:
R3 1. JOEY D'OR
R8 2. CRUIZINGDAFIELD
BEST VALUE:
R4 5. LOVE SHUCK
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Wagga Cup meeting