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Neil Evans' Tips For Tuncurry (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail True

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2100m):

Honest and underrated provincial five-year-old 9. Bandolero has a very plain strike rate, but gets his chance here back on firmer footing over a bit more ground. Has been in or around the money in four runs against some deeper opposition since a BM 58 win at double figure odds back in early October. Very fit, he draws to get the right run just off the speed at good odds, and just needs cleair air from the 400m.

Dangers: Any number in a fairly open and even field, starting with 2. Tamar, who has also been out of the winner's circle deep into the prep, but comes back from a good closing effort in provincial company, and a far stronger and superior jockey takes over. Another one who toils okay in 3. Bill Peyto is aiming for only a third win in 47 starts, but only has to run up to a solid closing effort in deeper grade at Grafton to be in the finish. Last start winner in similar grade 4. Kikakapow fifth-up; and 7. Seething Chuck who has won two of his last four; can both figure in the money.

How to play it: Bandolero to win

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Back to the five furlong dash for the maidens, and it shapes well for Casino Prince four-year-old gelding 5. Rock Are Steiner who debuts behind an eye-catching trial over the same journey. Top country jockey has been booked, and he's drawn to get the right cover before launching late.

Dangers: Big watch on 4. Mr Damage who led for a long way on debut, and reportedly has trained on well since. Despite drawing wide, 3. Gulf Of Guinea is not without a chance after holding his ground okay first-up in a race with more depth; while 6. Working Capital hard fit from a low draw goes in all exotic bets.

How to play it: Rock Are Steiner to win

Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Provided the inside ground holds up okay, capable four-year-old 2. October Revolution is ready to win from the fence draw, and back in distance second-up. Hit the line late into a place in a maiden with more depth when resuming, and again drawn to park right behind the leader.

Dangers: Drawn right alongside, underrated 3. Sumo Fish charged home to win a handy CL2 two starts ago, before tackling a deeper provincial class. Should get plenty of cover and be strong late. Expecting an improved run from 8. Bear's A Star who disappointed third-up at Taree from on speed, but a more senior jockey takes over here. Watch the betting on 4. Crowie's Shout first-up behind a smart trial win; while 1. Uncertain Terms is the best of the rest resuming with blinkers back on.

How to play it: October Revolution to win

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Progressive metro four-year-old 1. Dark Vador rates clear on top here second-up. Hit the line impressively at Scone when resuming off an 18-week spell, and the extra 100m is an obvious bonus. Draws wider, but his natural pattern is to settle back and be given plenty of time to get to the outside and let down. Has a better than 50 percent place rate from nine starts, and is headed for much bigger targets than most of these.

Dangers: Honest 8. Thedaythemusicdied has worked home fairly in three runs this prep, and gets good weight relief; while 6. Oakfield Zena is on the next line at her third start, coming back from deeper provincial company with blinkers going on.

How to play it: Dark Vador to win

Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Take Two for the maidens over the same journey, and just like the race before, the Matthew Smith stable at Warwick Farm is again placed to win with lightly raced four-year-old 1. Jack Of Aces second-up. Loved the way he found the line from worse than midfield resuming in a better race at Wyong, and given his breeding suggests he'll get much further, nothing will be hitting the finish better, especially with Aaron Bullock taking over in the cockpit. The one to beat in a weakened race.

Dangers: After two improving runs back from a spell, 14. Slush Fund is the clear threat, with some weight relief and winkers going on. Both provincial-based 7. Sidenay second-up, and at bigger odds 4. Opus resuming; are value chances.

How to play it: Jack Of Aces to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Tough race here, with many at despised long odds. Settled on progressive and lightly raced 8. Sonofdec by Group 1 Doncaster winner Kermadec. Swept home for an impressive and dominant maiden win at only his second start, and the provincial stable has found an ideal follow-up race over a furlong further. Again drawn to get plenty of cover around midfield, and be cut loose just before the turn.

Dangers: Big watch on improving and last start provincial Super Maiden winner 4. Oakfield Eagle who shapes over the odds fourth-up despite rising sharply in weight; while included in exotics, 2. Best Of Maher behind a fourth-up win in weaker company; and 13. Marjorian at his third start.

How to play it: Sonodfec to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):

Another typical moderate and open battle for this grade. Progressive provincial four-year-old 4. Oakfield Badger can take the next step, and go back-to-back at his fourth start. Bolted in from the front last start after dropping back in trip to country level. Again rolls forward from the same draw, with the leading jockey taking over.

Dangers: Keep safe 6. Chestime resuming behind two progressive trials; and 10. Sisserou off a barrier-to-box maiden win on debut when backed from $3.90 into $3.20; while 2. Miss Arizona off a last start Fillies & Mares win is on the next line.

How to play it: Oakfield Badger to win

Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1400m):

Emerging metro three-year-old 2. Hellfire Express is primed to make it two straight wins, and take her winning strike rate to 60 percent from only five starts. Tracked the speed before going home best in heavy ground to win a country CL1 second-up, and this isn't much harder getting back on top of the ground.

Dangers: Expecting a much better run from 1. Oakfield Storm back in a thinner race second-up from a more economical draw. Drawn off the track, 3. Due Diligence hit the line impressively in a BM 58 second-up, and should get enough speed on here to settle back and come with a big finish. Both 7. Inferencia fourth-up; and 17. Taking The Mikki deep into the prep; can figure in the money.

How to play it: Hellfire Express to win

BEST BETS:
R2 5. ROCK ARE STEINER
R3 2. OCTOBER REVOLUTION

BEST VALUE:
R6 8. SONOFDEC

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tuncurry meeting

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