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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail true

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

The maidens kick off a strong and open Showcase meeting, with resuming home track four-year-old 2. Satay Chicken at the top of the menu. Hasn't started since just missing when well backed here on debut last winter, but will be ready to go over this first-up distance behind three trials across nine weeks. That said, I wouldn't be diving into too short a price.

Dangers: Honest local 1. Dommantella looms as the quinella runner third-up from the inside draw. Showed improvement on New Year's Day, and jockey change is very significant. Provincial three-year-old 3. Magic Prophet can improve deep into his first prep.

How to play it: Satay Chicken to win and quinella 1 and 2
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m):

Out to the mile for a competitive and tactical battle. Always had plenty of time for local five-year-old 2. Sabie Park who looks ready to take the next step, nearly four weeks between runs off an easy trial. Hasn't always lived up to his ability over a middle distance, but the way he charged home here just before Xmas was potentially a career turning point. Form from that race is a little deeper than here, and again he settles back with cover and produces a superior closing 400m.

Dangers: Coming through that same race, keep safe provincial mare 8. Dauvenay peaking fourth-up, and given the stablemate was withdrawn; while 10. Mondial Express from a softer draw can add value to exotic outlays.

How to play it: Sabie Park to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):

Same distance here for the maidens, and there is a tonne of value. None more so than improving mare 8. Finding Alice who is ready to peak fourth-up. Has progressed slowly all prep, and loved her last furlong getting home well 17 days ago. Over the odds.

Dangers: Emerging mare 10. Kaisa is a serious threat coming back to country level fourth-up, and a superior jockey taking over. Big watch on home tracker 11. My Diamond Boy who draws to get a nice trail back in the field, and has far more to offer than his poor record suggests. From the inside barrier, 6. Boys Cry is clear next best with a key rider booking.

How to play it: Finding Alice each way
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Plenty of depth for this level in a Heat of the Rising Star. Keen on home track four-year-old 3. Dimension second-up, and importantly with blinkers back on. Stuck on well when resuming to be beaten only a neck, and can park just behind the speed on preferred firm ground.

Dangers: Big watch on resuming three-year-old and stablemate to the top selection 7. Smart Shot who has plenty of ability and will come to hand down in the weights; while hard fit 4. Lightfast and lightly raced 5. Compelling Truth off a dominant all-the-way maiden win; are both capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Dimension each way and box trifecta 3,4,5,7
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Tough race again, although very much with emerging and lightly raced mare 13. Valoria who draws the fence resuming off a nine week break with key gear chances. Made late ground on a heavy surface last time, and much better placed here on firm going behind a quiet trial two weeks ago.

Dangers: Still the search goes on for a breakthrough win third-up and ahead of 10th start for once highly touted local 1. Russian Standard. Was very good hitting the line 16 days ago, and placed five times overall, but no hiding the fact he's been beaten eight times as favourite. Keep safe 14. Musical Affair third-up; while 4. Lostma Cowboy improves further second-up; and ex-Victorian mare 8. Allande is first-up for six months for the new home stable.

How to play it: Valoria to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 TAMWORTH COUNTRY MUSIC CUP OPEN HCP (1200m):

Feature race of the day shapes nicely for progressive home track five-year-old 6. Seguso second-up off a long break, as long as he can tuck in from the outside barrier. Chased hard to miss by a head in a handy sprint first outing since being transferred from Victoria, and was ultra competitive in deeper races than this last prep.

Dangers: Can never undersell honest mare 7. Very Sharp who draws to get an economical run with a light weight four weeks between runs. Similarly, 1. Fanaar is well placed from the inside draw second-up, with top country hoop booked to ride. Gap to the rest headed by 9. Red Beryl from a soft trailing draw.

How to play it: Seguso to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

One of the more open and tougher contests on the card. Talented four-year-old 1. Imatruestar is well placed from the draw, and back in grade third-up. Trailed them home in a much deeper Highway resuming before showing sharp improvement running home hard five weeks between runs in a BM 66. Up in weight, but a 2kg allowance softens that, and was scratched from Wyong on Wednesday to be saved for this.

Dangers: There's value about improving 4. Final Statement peaking fourth-up, and drawn to get to the outside. Tough three-year-old 11. Killzy has to overcome a wide draw, but he's hit the line well in his last two. Included in exotics 5. Majestic Wings fifth-up with a weight increase off-set by a 3kg claim; and 12. Albanjo who has run into the placings in his last two.

How to play it: Imatruestar to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

Good quality sprint for this class to finish. Smart local four-year-old 2. Ostracised hasn't started since a dominant off-speed CL2 win in heavy ground last September, but he's versatile in the run, and has a strong fresh record. Looks fairly treated at the weights after the claim.

Dangers: Drawn inside, 3. Just Strolling is an immediate threat off an all-the-way third-up win in weaker grade, and previously had been competitive in consecutive Highway tilts. Keep safe underrated stablemate to the top selection 4. Trumped Up who is over the odds third-up, with the "Raging Bull" taking over in the saddle. Both 7. Miss Kono, a BM 66 winner in fast time two starts ago; and 8. Briefly who has a strong record here at home; go in trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Ostracised to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R5 13. VALORIA
R6 6. SEGUSO

BEST VALUE:
R2 2. SABIE PARK

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Tamworth meeting

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