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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Sparingly raced mare 7. Meddlesome is ready to win third-up, with blinkers being added. Has worked to the line nicely in two runs since a six week freshen-up. Senior rider goes on and hits peak fitness in what is an average affair.

Dangers: Respect for emerging filly 10. Off The Scale who did her best work late on debut here a fortnight ago when heavily backed from $3.30 into $2.30. Over the odds is 11. Reluctant Diva finding a weaker race at her fourth start; while 6. Just Breathe is right in the mix, hard fit from a low draw, and having placed in her last two.

How to play it: Meddlesome to win

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Emerging 9. Calga Power is the clear one to beat from a low draw. Held his ground okay on debut at a big price in much deeper provincial company, and this shapes as the right race.

Dangers: Big watch on 4. Kickoff who resumes off a 14 month spell behind two provincial trial wins. 11. Happy Cappy is a stablemate of the former and can improve sharply second-up. 3. Sizzling Boy drew off the track third-up, but did hit the line well here last time in a much better race. Big gap to the rest, with 12. Rodrigo on debut adding value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to pay it: Calga Power to win

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Lightly raced mare 3. International can strike first-up off a 12 month absence in what is another very thin quality race. Ran home well in two smarter provincial races late last year, and although he's had setbacks, reportedly been working well and was strong through the line in the second of two recent trials. Drawn to get good cover behind the speed.

Dangers: Watch the betting on 1. Don'tknowyet who resumes off two trials without the blinkers for the Cameron Crockett stable. Another Scone visitor 10. Bakhita hit the line impressively here on debut a fortnight back; while local duo 6. Halle Bee resuming off a trial win; and at bigger odds 4. Tomoe Gozen, improving into her second start; can both run into the minor money.

How to play it: International to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 82 HCP (1000m):

Capable and hard fit sprinter 1. Custo is suited coming back 100m in distance off a fighting effort in a feature sprint on Dubbo Cup day one by a serious Kosciuszko contender. Stuck on to place behind Gallant Star that day beaten under two lengths, and in a race here of less depth, if he can slide across from the barrier okay, will give a massive sight over this trip.

Dangers: Smart four-year-old 2. Perennial is the natural threat and likely to jump a hot favorite. Was dominant winning a CL3 Highway at Randwick first-up to take his record to four from seven, but still a query at the short price from a tricky draw, and 23 days between runs. Doubt the winner comes from anywhere else, but including 5. Scarzel second-up from a soft draw; and 7. Princess Mary, resuming off two trials; in exotic plays.

How to play it: Custo to win and quinella 1 & 2

Race 5 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

A stack of chances here headed by 2. Blazed Prince who finally draws a more economical barrier, and can pounce second-up off a five week freshening. Led all the way in a dominant maiden win here seven weeks back before sticking on okay in a better race last time. Building a handy record around this course, and drawn to get the right run.

Dangers: Progressive mare 10. Margaret's Missile is a clear threat from the inside draw. Swept home to win a CL1 at Narromine two starts back before running home into a place behind the smart Egyptologist at Dubbo 10 days ago. Keep safe 8. Full Commitment at good odds after running home well in that same CL1 as the top selection. Expect sharp improvement third-up from 11. Mad Harry with the blinkers coming off; while 1. Best Of Maher has a tough task drawn wide fourth-up, but hasn't missed a place in three runs this prep. Included in trifecta and first four plays, 7. Suit Day third-up and 14. Kovanos who can improve sharply back on drier ground.

How to play it: Blazed Prince to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (2100m):

Progressive Scone mare 6. Alpine Kandy is primed to make it two straight this prep. Has quickly gone to another level after four straight placings up to country BM 58 level last prep. Finished best to win in heavy ground from well back when resuming, and this isn't much tougher.

Dangers: Honest 5. Mammoth Mountain rarely runs a bad one, and scored at this track two starts ago in weaker grade when tracking the speed. Again finished well last start, and gets a significant weight drop for this rise in grade. Keep safe 1. Beckford who is hard fit and overdue for a drop in grade after working home fairly in his last two. 9. Seething Seb is also well into the current prep, and will relish the drop back from tougher BM 72 metro company; while 2. Pepper's Ghost and 11. Tornado Light are the best of the rest.

How to play it: Alpine Kandy to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

After hitting the line well in three runs back, home tracker 5. Magic Flyer is primed to peak fourth-up getting to an ideal distance. Has charged home in his last two on unsuitably tighter tracks, but better placed here, drawn to get to the outside earlier, and a far stronger and superior jockey takes over.

Dangers: Improving 2. Paris Lad comes in with the most consistent form having never missed a place in five runs including a debut win earlier in the year, but still under the odds from a wide and tough draw. Keep safe lightly raced 4. Release Point who ran home well late when resuming here. 3. Hit Song is shooting for a third straight win, but tackles a much deeper race; while both 6. Power Beau second-up; and 8. Gunmetal with a 2kg claim; can add value into wider exotic plays.

How to play it: Magic Flyer to win

Race 8 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m):

Very open closer, but improving mare 14. Negation can strike a blow second-up over 300m further and at good odds. Powered home in heavy ground over a shorter trip to miss narrowly in a BM 58 at Scone when resuming, and normally takes that form into his next run. Scratched from Coonamble on Sunday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Big watch on 1. Sting Jet second-up coming back from a solid closing run in a CL3 Highway at Randwick behind Perennial who goes around as a hot favourite in an earlier race. 2. Cyclone Rupert disappointed in the Spring Cup here a fortnight ago, but again draws to get a cosy run behind the speed, and this is weaker. 7. Vis I Do can run into the finish fourth-up if he finds early cover from a wide draw. 12. Lord Of The Sun finished best to win a weaker class here second-up; while 13. So Rosie at big odds is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Negation to win

BEST BETS:
R2 9. CALGA POWER
R7 5. MAGIC FLYER

BEST VALUE:
R6 6. ALPINE KANDY

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting

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