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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 1200m to 350m & True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

We start with the maidens over a mile, and a 150m rise in distance at his second start can prove the ticket for emerging provincial four-year-old 7. Valkenswaard who is by Press Statement. Kept chasing into a place at Kembla on debut when solid enough in the market, and fitter now can go one better.

Dangers: 2. Just On Fire comes back a notch after an average debut run in deeper company at Kembla, and better suited over a sharp 400m rise in distance. 4. More Elements produced his best run of a lengthy prep last start charging home to miss by under a length at Moree. Include in all exotics 5. Supercrisp fourth-up from the inside draw; and honest mare 8. Just Breathe also fourth-up after missing Saturday's postponed meeting at Armidale.

How to play it: Valkenswaard to win

Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2100m):

Little or nothing between the leadeing contenders here; but 6. Bill Peyto emerges as the best value. Hasn't won for a while, but is on an eight day back-up, and ran home well into a place in a deeper BM 66 field at this track the start prior before again doing his best work late in a handy BM 58. Always been a solid weight carrier, and is well treated after the jockey's 3kg allowance.

Dangers: Last start winner in weaker grade, 9. Crash 'N' Bash gets a charmed run from the fence draw settling just off the speed. 7. Merapi ran home well to win a similar graded race in heavy going two starts back, and in well at the weights after the rookie rider's claim. 5. Mammoth Mountain hit the line well in consecutive races at this level before struggling in a tougher grade over the border. Evergreen and reliable weight carrier 1. Nature Boy and 8. Justifiably fifth-up can both add plenty of value into trifecta and first four returns.

How to play it: Bill Peyto to win

Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m):

Provincial-based 7. Oakfield Storm is terrific value here third-up from a softer draw. Did his best work late in a CL3 at Scone after covering ground, but over this longer trip can settle closer to the speed with cover, and be saved for one assault over the final 350m. The more the track dries out, the better placed he is.

Dangers: Trained on the track, progressive five-year-old 3. Invincible Red is chasing a third straight win staying at the distance in slightly smarter company. Right at peak fitness, but a risk this time on a drying surface. Keep safe 2. Syrian Star who draws wide, but can peak fourth-up over a furlong further after running home late in the Moree Cup. Gap to the rest headed by 10. Borrowed Luck dropping down from a BM 82.

How to play it: Oakfield Storm to win

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Improving four-year-old 4. Mad Harry returns for a second full prep from the inside draw. Showed handy progression last campaign, twice placing up to the mile on rain-affected ground in races with more depth. Fitted nicely via a strong 1100m trial, and parking or or near the speed with cover, can produce a superior closing 300m burst.

Dangers: Speedy 2. Kimberley Moon stuck on well after leading on debut at Mudgee despite a big betting drift. Backs up in eight days for a smart stable with winkers being added. Big market watch on 1. Daytona Demon resuming for a strong country stable with blinkers going on behind a quiet trial. 3. Lunaire got back into an awkward position at her second start and ran on only fairly, but can improve sharply here over more ground. Locally-trained 5. Moon Treaty is the clear best of the rest fourth-up

How to play it: Mad Harry to win

Race 5 BENCHMARK 82 HCP (1000m):

Talented six-year-old 4. Rhythm Is A Dancer has been tuned for a big first-up run, winning a Scone trial on firm ground significantly over 1100m. Normally comes to hand fresh, and from a low draw, he can sit right behind the speed and pounce late. The one to beat.

Dangers: Rival Scone sprinter 6. Very Sharp has a smart fresh record, and resumes from the inside draw behind a quiet trial at this track. Ultra consistent mare 9. Sisters Pick also reloads off a break and on the limit weight, and loves this trip when on the fresh side. Watch the betting on 2. Driving Force resuming off a dominant trial win at Dubbo. Speedy 7. Castlebar Road steps up from running a record in much weaker company when coming off a seven week break, and tackling some much smarter ones here.

How to play it: Rhythm Is A Dancer to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):

In one of the tougher form races on the program, underrated mare 9. Keitany is well over the odds coming back to the right trip third-up. Held her ground okay in a deeper race at Scone 17 days ago, and both her career wins from 16 starts have come at this track, including a dominant CL1 win in July.

Dangers: Home tracker 2. Vis I Do ran home hard from near the rear first-up in a deeper Class 3. Another local 5. Great Siege will be hard to hold out second-up from the inside draw after sticking on okay in tougher provincial BM 64 company. Track the market on 12. Roses Imminente who was unwanted in betting on debut at Scone before charging home from the back to score an upset win; while 3. Gold Counter gets much needed weight relief third-up.

How to play it: Keitany each way

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Wide open sprint to finish, but the value is there for lightly raced mare 1. Jet Empress to strike second-up over 50m further. Was coming off a 20 week spell when right behind the placegetters in a stronger CL3 at Moree, and looks fairly treated at the weights after the jockey's 3kg claim. Has plenty of tactical speed and thrives on drying ground.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by home track mare 2. Takanakuy, who has a smart fresh record, trialled well enough, and all five wins from just 14 starts have come on dry ground. Keep safe progressive filly 9. Too Darn Lovely who has tactical speed, and can peak third-up. 8. Not Written Off has to get over from a wide draw, but loves firming ground and gear changes have been made. 3. Whistling Straits shooting for a third straight win off a five week freshening; and 5. Outta de Lady from the inside gate; can both add value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Jet Empress to win

BEST BETS:
R2 6. BILL PEYTO
R5 4. RHYTHM IS A DANCER

BEST VALUE:
R3 7. OAKFIELD STORM

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting

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