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By Neil Evans

Track likely Heavy 8 and rail True

We start with the maiden sprinters on a track in heavy range, but slowly improving with clearing weather predicted. Honest home track mare 9. The Affirmative has been given four weeks since chasing a smart one home here, and that three-year-old remains unbeaten from three starts after winning his next two up to CL2 level. Senior country jockey sticks, by prolific wet track sire No Nay Never, and this is a weaker affair.

Dangers: Lightly raced six-year-old 3. Gunfighter wasn't beaten far first-up in a deeper maiden at Scone; while debutant mare 7. Charm Factor was good through the line in the second of two trials on heavy ground.

How to play it: The Affirmative to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special

Much more depth and pressure in this, but shapes nicely for Kembla four-year-old 1. Densaur resuming behind a tidy heavy track trial. Was consistently in and around the money up to the mile last prep, and the stable rarely ventures to this part of the state, although obviously side-stepping drenched areas south and south-west of Sydney. Draws to get an economical run with blinkers coming off, and comes to handy early in his prep.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 4. Canny Prospect who peaks fourth-up, and has raced exclusively at this track all prep. Drawn alongside, lightly raced 3. Divine Crescent resumes with blinkers added behind two trials, and bred to handle the ground. Include in wider exotics, 5. Dubliner Boy third-up; and 10. Denarvi who hit the line well in heavy ground last start.

How to play it: Densaur to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Still with the maidens, but an open affair sneaking up a further furlong in distance. Improving provincial filly 13. Leipzig progressed nicely into her third-up run, missing by a nose chasing home a talented winner on a bog track at Scone. Again drawn to get to the outside, and looks well treated here under the set weights scale, coming through consistently better formlines.

Dangers: Capable five-year-old 5. Second Half thrives on wet tracks, and has more than enough ability to take care of this lot second-up, but will still be tested from the outside barrier. Improving mare 12. Wandjina Spirit is right at home in the conditions, and was given no favours in the run last time beaten a long way as a short-priced favourite. Expect sharp improvement from 6. Tyquendo who drops back from three runs in tougher provincial company; while both 8. Holly Road fourth-up; and 10. Miss Chapeau fifth-up; are capable of running into a place.

How to play it: Leipzig to win
Odds and Evens: Split

A stack of chances in this one over the mile. Expecting big second-up improvement from home track five-year-old 4. Sabie Park after getting a long way back here when resuming in a better race. Suited over further, with much-needed weight relief, and a significant jockey change with the "Raging Bull" taking over.

Dangers: Watch the betting on 1. Apache Red who has finished off okay against Highway company in two of his last three, although a query if the track remains heavy. Underrated 3. Chowdah is an honest weight carrier, and one of a few over the odds, although up in class. Included in exotics 7. The Dark Knight fifth-up from a wide gate after going close in a BM 58; and emerging mare 9. Oak Island at her third start.

How to play it: Sabie Park each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Evenly graded and tricky sprint. Like tough five-year-old 5. Morgenstern resuming behind a rock solid heavy track trial win over 1000m. Hasn't raced since sweeping home for a dominant CL2 win in heavy ground late May before missing by a whisker in this class at Dubbo under the same weight.

Dangers: Must respect 2. Kinship who gets a little weight relief and class drop second-up. Reliable wet tracker 7. Pull The Tail has gone under narrowly in consecutive CL2 starts here since easily winning a Cl1 from the front, and only needs cover to be in the finish; while consistent home mare 4. Briefly has won two of her last three in weaker grades; and can figure in the minor end of the money.

How to play it: Morgenstern to win
Odds and Evens: Split

The club has become renowned for these types of open class short-course battles, and this is no different, with several key chances. Big-finishing local five-year-old 11. Casino Lord hasn't had much go his way from back in the field last three outings, including making up significant late ground from a suburb away in a tougher Highway 23 days ago. Can settle closer here, and all three career wins from 15 starts have come at home.

Dangers: Another key back-marker 1. Toro Toro has been hammered by the handicapper with 63kg, but loves soft ground, and if he's anywhere near them at the furlong will be thundering home, especially with the top country jockey taking over. Capable 4. Appalachian was given little hope here in the Spring Cup settling too far back before working home okay. Loves heavy ground, but dropping back to this trip is a concern.

How to play it: Casino Lord to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Likely the most open race on the program brings us home, but the value is there about improving seven-year-old 2. Tough Case striking second-up off an eight-week break. Hit the line hard behind a handy winner at Bathurst, and while his strike rate doesn't offer up bags of confidence, he tackled stronger last prep, and his best form is clearly on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 5. Distant Secret who powered home to win his maiden here first-up when heavily backed; and another last start maiden winner 4. Star Impact who has tactical speed and rarely runs a bad one in heavy going. Included in exotic bets 8. Sapello who is trained on the track.

How to play it: Tough Case win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 9. THE AFFIRMATIVE
R5 5. MORGENSTERN

BEST VALUE:
R4 4. SABIE PARK

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting