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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track improving to Soft 6 and rail True

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

The maiden sprinters get us underway on a surface that should improve comfortably into soft range. Resuming provincial mare 12. Tikitiboo has trialled strongly ahead of her first run in five months, and draws to find a nice position on or near the speed.

Dangers: Keep safe lightly raced home track mare 8. Really Serious also first-up behind a sound trial, but has to get in from a tough draw. Stablemate mare to the top selection 7. Queen Of Elegance is ready to peak fourth-up after being scratched from the Port Macquarie meeting on Sunday, although a weaker rider is back on. Another one drawn out, 2. Gold Counter can improve sharply after being well beaten here on debut, with a stack of gear changes, including blinkers being added.

How to play it: Tikitiboo to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Very open maiden, with a stack of chances. Like the way home track mare 13. Miss Chapeau has found the line in three runs this prep. Still has a tough task being drawn off the track, but a senior rider takes over, and if she tucks in for any sort of cover will be powering home at odds.

Dangers: Big market watch on local five-year-old 9. Distant Secret resuming off a very quiet trial from a soft draw with top country hoop in the saddle. Keep safe at longer odds 4. Holly Road second-up and down in weight; while 12. Cool Ruler with a key gear change is capable of running into a place.

How to play it: Miss Chapeau each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

A fortnight after he charged home for a dominant maiden win on debut here, promising home track three-year-old 10. Smart Shot can repeat the dose. Drawn to get plenty of cover around midfield over a suitable and further trip, carrying half kilo less.

Dangers: Tough and consistent 3. Hard To Dismiss hasn't missed a place in her last three, just needs to tuck in from a wide barrier. Big watch on stablemate to the top selection 1. Sabie Park resuming behind two progressive open class trials, draws okay, and is a proven weight carrier. The third of the Cody Morgan-trained runners 9. Sapello heads the rest fourth-up from the inside draw; while including 4. Await The Storm in wider exotics.

How to play it: Smart Shot to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Plenty of chances in this restricted mile battle as well, headed by underrated seven-year-old 9. The Dark Knight who can snap a long run of outs fourth-up. Chased hard into a place here a fortnight ago, but gets an easier run in transit from this draw, and hits peak fitness.

Dangers: The home tracker who swept home to win that race 3. Kanalaide is an obvious threat, although will be forced to repeat the dose from a wide draw and carting 2kg more. Honest 2. Flying Banjo has been up for a while, but did win a similar race here two starts back; while both 7. Nothing's Sacred third-up; and at bigger odds 10. Forever Jude fourth-up and back in a slightly thinner field; can run into the placings.

How to play it: The Dark Knight to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m):

Yet another open and full field of runners, with little separating the leading contenders. Ultra consistent provincial four-year-old 1. Lonely Power can pounce fifth-up. Has been virtually running home hard into a place all prep, generally against deeper opposition, and should get enough tempo up front to allow him to slot in from the tricky draw.

Dangers: Must keep safe progressive four-year-old 4. Super Extreme who steps up in distance second-up with some weight relief after chasing home a smart one here two weeks ago. Home track mare 10. Totally Discreet is also a serious threat second-up after hitting the line in that same race as the former. Watch the betting on 11. Pull The Tail who was only run down late after easily winning a CL1 here 22 days ago.

How to play it: Lonely Power to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 SPRING CUP OPEN HCP (1200m):

Terrific quality feature, naturally with plenty of chances. Despite drawing the outside gate, smart local seven-year-old 4. Appalachian can add to his impressive record third-up. Swept home best to win the Town Plate here before luckless at a key stage when just missing a fortnight back. Will likely be ridden a little quieter from this draw, but the extra furlong is right up his alley.

Dangers: Talented Scone five-year-old 3. Commando Hunt is drawn wide, but remains a serious threat, with a significant jockey change, and having by-passed the feature sprint at Bathurst on Sunday. Made up a tonne of ground from right out the back first-up at Dubbo, and has a 50 percent win rate from four runs second-up. His stablemate 1. Primal Scream is a high class weight carrier, and beat a smart one here second-up; while 2. Bugalugs heads the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Appalachian to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

We close a strong card over the short course, and all aboard ultra promising local mare 6. Le Melody second-up off a six week break, and five weeks between runs. Just peaked on the effort chasing in a deeper race at Scone last start, but back on the tighter home circuit where he can utilise his superior tactical speed better is a big plus.

Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 3. Puerto Rico is the clear threat shooting for a hat trick of wins. Draws well with good early speed, but up 2.5kg in a similar class sprint. Gap to the rest headed by 9. Jilloni and 10. Mystery Lad.

How to play it: Le Melody to win and quinella 3 and 6
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 10. SMART SHOT
R7 6. LE MELODY

BEST VALUE:
R5 1. LONELY POWER

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting

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