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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 & rail out 3m from 1200m to WP & True the remainder

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):

Tricky opening race, with the real fancies spread right across the draw, so early positioning will be vital. Japanese-sired filly 9. Kirameki has shown enough in three runs so far to break through here. Was bigger odds a fortnight back when close-up in a much deeper country maiden, and draws to get a nice trail just off the speed.

Dangers: Honest four-year-old 2. Cantrell is an immediate threat fifth-up carrying his lightest weight all prep; while 5. Lucky Crumpet also deep into his prep.

How to play it: Kirameki to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 3YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Back to the short course in a wide open dash. Improving four-year-old 3. Mackinaw can sneak under the market radar second-up. Hasn't lived up to early expectations for the stable, but the way he stuck on behind a smart winner resuming suggests he's ready for a much better campaign this time. Draws to get a soft run behind the speed, and well over the odds.

Dangers: Keep safe 4. Nice Water who draws inside returning off a lengthy break and quiet trial. The drop back 100m should suit improving mare 9. Love Marilyn dropping in quality second-up and the stable is going great guns at the moment.

How to play it: Mackinaw each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

Good quality sprint here over the same trip. Consistent four-year-old 2. The Wayfarer tracked the speed before finishing best third-up, and while this is a bit tougher, he's at his peak and rarely runs a bad one.

Dangers: Big watch on 1. Step On Fire who is unbeaten from two runs fresh, but was well down the track in the latest of two trials, and has to cart 61.5kg. Won two straight last prep up to BM 66 grade. Included in exotics 4. Rejinsky resuming off a smart trial win; and 7. Kinjina who has placed in her last two at this track.

How to play it: The Wayfarer to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 FILLIES & MARE BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):

Promising three-year-old 3. Holy Tycoon steps up from a dominant maiden win third-up, and can go on to win much better races than this. Draws to again settle just off the speed, and clearly has the superior final 300m sprint.

Dangers: Keep safe resuming three-year-old 4. Exolay who will drift well back, but watch for her charging home late off two trials; while 1. Dancing Dollar was good, resuming in a deeper provincial race, and already a second-up winner. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Martian Queen first-up for more than six months.

How to play it: Holy Tycoon to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1600m):

Consistent local four-year-old 3. Mr Severino can go back-to-back after sweeping home to win a weaker BM 58. Hard fit after four runs back, and the rise in quality more than off-set by the inside draw and a 2kg drop in weight.

Dangers: Tough four-year-old 4. Vandangle has dug in hard to win his last two in weaker company. Was scratched from Sunday's Taree meeting to run here, and gets significant weight relief stepping up in grade. Honest mare 5. Frome The Stars can run into a place dropping sharply in weight; while 2. Salsa Man heads the rest fifth-up, with a much stronger and senior jockey taking over.

How to play it: Mr Severino to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Home track four-year-old 1. Sabie Park will be hard to hold out rising in distance second-up after holding his ground in a handy CL1 a month back. Draws to get cover, and big weight has been off-set with a 3kg claimer booked.

Dangers: Emerging filly 8. Storm Intensity charged home to win a weak maiden at big odds on debut, and drew to get a good smother again on the fence. Big gap to the rest in a very thin race.

How to play it: Sabie Park to win and quinella 1 and 8. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):

We close with the restricted sprinters in a very open affair. Improving three-year-old 3. Dethroned can peak third-up. Has only been fair in two CL1 runs back at double figure odds, but more quality and depth in those races, and he was good enough to debut in metropolitan company more than a year ago.

Dangers: Capable 4. Highest Standard has been disappointing in four runs this prep, but the way he finished off late in a BM 58 17 days ago suggests he's finally hitting his straps. Veteran 6. The Lion hasn't won for a long time but he stuck on gamely at huge odds in a deeper race last start, and can give some cheek again from a soft draw. Include in wider exotics 8. Kamikaze Kid fourth-up off a last-start maiden win; and 10. Poet Lad who resumes.

How to play it: Dethroned each way. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R4 3. HOLY TYCOON
R5 3. MR SEVERINO

BEST VALUE:
R2 3. MACKINAW

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting

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