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Neil Evans' Tips For Tamworth (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9 and rail out 1m

Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2100m):

Very tough opener on a rain-hit track, with several chances. Provincial mare 5. Kikikapow has been mixing her form all prep, but has more ability than most of these. Drawn wide, but if she can tuck in for some sort of cover will be strong late considering she's been competitive up to 2600m in better company.

Dangers: Improving mare 4. Dissenter can peak at this longer trip after chasing hard last start, and meets that winner 2.5kg better at the weights. Lightly raced three-year-old 3. Septimus Severus won that race, and drew to get a soft run off-setting the weight runaround. Provincial four-year-old 1. Finney and tough five-year-old 2. Promesa must be kept safe in a wide race.

How to play it: Kikikapow to win and trifecta 3,4,5/1,2,3,4,5/1,2,3,4,5. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Keen on debutant two-year-old Extreme Choice filly 11. Don't Doubt Katie off a couple of very progressive soft track trials. Has had to bide her time, but has been kept ticking over. Draws well and bred to thrive on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Scone filly 8. Love Is In The Air is nine weeks between runs, with a nice trial last month. Gets a handy weight drop from her second start in provincial grade, and back in trip is the key. Despite the wide draw, 9. Head Above is on the next line third-up in her second prep.

How to play it: Don't Doubt Katie each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Emerging home track filly 13. Suva May was terrific charging home late at her fourth start, and is destined for bigger targets. Could be looking for further now, but she's a real wet tracker in the making, with a crucial 2kg claim in a set weight race, and should get enough speed up front to power home.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 4. Full Coverage can return much stronger this prep after two improving trials, easily winning the latest showing tactical speed. Dissident filly 11. Lapseki has ability, but seemed to get lost back in the field on the bigger Dubbo track and didn't finish off. Query on the heavy rating.

How to play it: Suva May to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Still with the maidens, and Taree filly 8. Little Miss Dotty can keep improving third-up for the new stable, with blinkers back on, and this isn't strong.

Dangers: Capable mare 7. Kadanga Miss is third-up and down in weight, although five weeks between runs after missing the abandoned race here nearly three weeks back; while 2. Mister Ripley is best of the rest fifth-up.

How to play it: Little Miss Dotty to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Got plenty of time for tough three-year-old 1. Elusive Babbz who kept finishing off on a bog track at Muswellbrook second-up, and finds a weaker race here. Relishes the ground being by dual Doncaster-winning mudlark Sacred Falls, but does have to carry a career-high 59.5kg.

Dangers: Emerging two-year-old filly 5. Avalicious is the immediate threat off a dominant debut win at Coonamble; while local Sidestep three-year-old 2. Knights Raptor showed a real liking for heavy ground sweeping home to win at his third start.

How to play it: Elusive Babbz to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Good depth here for this grade. Talented provincial filly 8. Endorphins got further back than expected third-up at Taree, but still attacked the line late in a luckless run. Had previously swept home to win a handy maiden at Scone, and gives the impression she's much better when drawn further out. Gets a nice 2kg drop for the longer trip.

Dangers: If ever one is ready to win again it's home four-year-old 3. Ziggi Rocks who has been close-up in deeper races all prep, whether ridden on speed or from well back. Handles all ground and draws to get a soft run. Provincial mare 6. Miss Twenty Twenty has improved sharply to win her last two with a tactical change to ride her on speed. Well treated again same weight and distance and this isn't much harder. Improving three-year-old 1. Vanbari is better suited now staying at the mile after holding his ground in a CL3 when nearly seven weeks between runs. Sound in the conditions, although up sharply to 61.5kg. Keep safe five-year-old mare 10. Southern Cloud fourth-up after chasing home Miss Twenty Twenty here last time when rock solid in the market

How to play it: Endorphins to win and box trifecta 3,6,8/1,3,6,8/1,3,6,8,10. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Home track filly 4. Ashre Jahre normally comes to hand early in the prep, and has been fitted with a quiet trial. Both wins from 10 starts so far have come on soft ratings, and gets a significant 3kg allowance.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 6. Kaufusi returns off a seven week let-up via a dominant trial win in heavy going.

How to play it: Ashre Jahre to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

BEST BETS:
R5 1. ELUSIVE BABBZ
R7 4. ASHRE JAHRE

BEST VALUE:
R3 13. SUVA MAY

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tamworth meeting

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