By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1000m to 300m and 2m the remainder:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): |
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Honest three-year-old 4. Super Story didn't get the right run third-up when hard in the market, although still found the line okay, but previous two efforts were strong. Gets an overdue change of jockey here, and can break through over 100m further.
Dangers: Lightly raced local three-year-old 2. Koga Ninja resumes off a dominant trial win in heavy ground, and the top country hoop keeps the ride. Gap to the rest headed by debutant Saxon Warrior filly 14. Oneofthesenights who bolted in a lone lead-up trial, and drew to get cover. Flying Artie filly 9. Miss Baturina starts her career off two trials, winning the latest comfortably, although the time was only moderate.
How to play it: Super Story to win
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): |
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Hard to see talented provincial three-year-old 8. Villa Tino being beaten here returning as a gelding off a 16 week break from a handy draw, although he has also been accepted to run at Dubbo. Was placed in his last three across stronger provincial races before spelling, and looked right up to the mark winning a trial ahead of Externus who was narrowly beaten fresh in a handy maiden at Newcastle on Tuesday.
Dangers: Over the odds is locally-trained 9. Biljara second-up from a soft draw, with winkers coming off; while at big odds well bred 5. Ribtickler second-up; and two-year-old filly 14. Sheza Rainbird third-up; can both figure in the minor money.
How to play it: Villa Tino to win
Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m): |
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Lightly raced filly 5. Mystic Isle is well placed to pounce second-up. Ran home well from the back when resuming on an unsuitably tight and turning track off a five month break, and fitter now, she can settle a bit closer this time and produce a superior final 400m.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with tough filly 6. Storm's End who looks terrific each way value behind a last start maiden win when hard in the market. Loves the short course battles, and has shown plenty of versatility on the speed map right through this prep. Over the odds. Progressive 2. Outback Ringer stuck on well first-up from a wide draw, but again has a tricky task from the gate, and threatens to go around under the mark.
How to play it: Mystic Isle to win
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1400m): |
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Keen on improving 3. Lord Cat who fought on well at his second start, and is well placed after the claim in a weakened race.
Dangers: Home tracker 4. Contarelli is suited coming back in trip after wilting badly from the front in his last two, and he gets some key gear changes. Included in all exotics 9. Young Henry who is hard fit and drops sharply in weight; and 14. Reacquaint fifth-up.
How to play it: Lord Cat to win
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m): |
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Confident ultra honest filly 4. Yirrkala can finally crack it for a second career win, fifth-up this prep. Has been in the money in three of four runs, including a close-up effort here in similar company, and a far more experienced rider gets back on here.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by improving 1. Elleves who shapes over the odds third-up. So too does Kris Lee-trained stablemate 3. Klisha third-up, with a senior jockey back aboard. At bigger odds, keep safe a third Lees-trained runner in 5. Akauwheo who mixes form and is very inconsistent, but reloads off a four week freshen-up.
How to play it: Yirrkala to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m): |
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Moderate but very tricky and wide race, with a couple dual accepted to run at Dubbo. Settled on tough Northern Hemisphere-bred five-year-old 4. Bill Peyto, at big odds, who has been threatening to win a third career race for some time. While his strike rate is very average, and faces a testing barrier here, he's run home strong in his last three under big weights against generally better opposition. This is his best trip, and the 2kg claim is a further plus.
Dangers: Local 3. Aesthete dominated from the front in a weak CL1 third-up, and the superior jockey is back on, but still facing a stern task under 60kg from a wide draw. Keep safe 13. Killzy peaking fourth-up at likely double figure odds. Watch for improving 9. Devocean second-up; while 2. Torowoto can improve sharply fourth-up dropping in grade
How to play it: Bill Peyto each way
Race 7 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m): |
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A stack of chances in this one too. Like lightly raced four-year-old 7. Satay Chicken who is trained on the track, and can peak second-up. Worked home well resuming here in weaker class on heavy ground, but he's far more effective on a dry surface, draws to sit closer in a handy trail, and gets a significant 5kg weight drop after the claim. Accepted for Dubbo as well, but likely to start here.
Dangers: Watch the betting on stablemate 2. Ostracised fourth-up and coming back from Highway company. Similarly, the market will be a big indicator with progressive 6. Divine Sinner who also gets weight relief second-up after charging home from a long way back in a weaker race fresh. Include honest 11. Lion Class on a 10 day back-up; in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Satay Chicken to win
Race 8 OPEN HCP (1000m): |
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The closer shapes ideally for home track mare and short-course specialist 4. Le Melody reloading off an 11 week break. Was strong at both ends in a recent trial win, is unbeaten from two starts at the track, and also won all three fresh runs. The one to beat.
Dangers: Hard fit 7. Foreign Brother comes off a narrow BM 74 win here first-up; and can run the quinella; while 5. Swamp Nation resuming; and 10. Ranuncula fourth-up; fight for the minor money.
How to play it: Le Melody to win
BEST BETS:
R2 8. VILLA TINO
R5 4. YIRRKALA
BEST VALUE:
R7 7. SATAY CHICKEN
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Tamworth meeting