By Neil Evans
Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 800m to 400m & true the remainder:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): |
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Well bred three-year-old 6. You Think You Know can start his career with a bang for the Brett Cavanough stable. Had three forward trials through winter before being spelled, and looked good in a recent trial here, sitting well off the fence before cruising home with plenty in hand. Bred for further, and fitted to run this journey right out.
Dangers: 2. Gustav is very fit and advantaged by a little drop back in distance after fading late at Muswellbrook, and blinkers go back on. Home filly 10. Bakhita can improve at her third start. Resuming mare 8. Grandini has also trialled well ahead of her second prep, although the time was significantly slower. Another one trained on the track and first-up, 9. Octern was okay through the line in his trial, and winkers replaced blinkers.
How to play it: You Think You Know to win
Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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Promising and lightly raced local mare 7. Star Bling resumes off a quiet trial. Beat a handy maiden field on debut in May before being freshened, then ran home hard from the back at Dubbo to claim all but the winner. Has plenty of ability, draws to get good cover off speed, and is bred to thrive in soft ground.
Dangers: The first-up run in similar company from Dubbo six-year-old 2. Starane, hitting the line from midfield, was good enough to suggest she can go one better here, with a senior jockey taking over. Big watch on lightly raced and resuming 4. Move She Can who looked sharp in a recent trial; while 5. Water Lad resuming off a soft trial goes in all exotic plays.
How to play it: Star Bling to win
Race 3 CLASS 3 HCP (1400m): |
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Progressive 3. Awesome Tycoon can make it two straight coming back a shade in distance. Did his best work late from the back first-up since late April before being ridden closer and finishing best for a dominant win at Quirindi. Again draws to bet the right run behind the speed with cover.
Dangers: Track the betting on 1. Uncle Harry who resumes behind two improving trials, and tackled much deeper opposition last prep. 4. King's Duty dropped in grade to lead from barrier to box here 17 days ago, but taking on some better ones here and is under the odds. Keep safe 5. Burraneer Buoy who was just fair when resuming, but normally improves into the next run and has drawn okay.
How to play it: Awesome Tycoon to win
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1600m): |
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Provincial-based mare 1. Like Lukey charged home from the back to miss narrowly here first-up. Gets an extra furlong here, and drawn to settle a bit closer, she can break through and then go on to win better races.
Dangers: 2. Rockbarton Island gets blinkers added after missing by a whisker third-up. 9. Turning Circle is better drawn and placed coming back from deeper provincial opposition, and blinkers replacing winkers is a key gear change. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Like Lukey to win
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m): |
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Honest and consistent mare 4. Miss Rebel is bred to relish soft, and well placed to make it two wins from her last three. Was dominant from just off the speed at Muswellbrook before another eye-catching effort in this class at Quirindi charging home late to miss by a neck. Right at peak fitness and is ready to win again.
Dangers: 1. Thundering Soul is tracking to peak third-up over further, and gear changes are in play. 2. Here Comes Hogan is capable of hitting the line, but has been mixing his form of late in tougher provincial grades, although returns to the track where he landed his maiden as a long odds-on favorite in August. Both 3. Pearls Treasure who chased home a speedster here 17 days ago; and at longer odds 6. Great Point resuming off a steady trial; are capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Miss Rebel to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m): |
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Exciting local four-year-old 5. Open Pearly Gates is set to take the next step here only nine days after winning his maiden at Dubbo. Was ridden much closer that day after being unlucky not to have broken through coming from midfield at two starts prior. Expect he will be taken back from a middle gate over this longer trip, and be brought to the outside past the 450m.
Dangers: Loved the way progressive 8. Yototsu hit the line when resuming in a handy CL1 here. Respect too for 9. Flying Banjo who is tracking to peak fourth-up and first time up to the mile this prep. 10. Outback Archie also fourth-up and back up to the mie is capable of running into a place; while 6. Outcast Girl drawn inside coming off a win at this level is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Open Pearly Gates to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1100m): |
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Progressive 6. Code In Time can complete a big day for local stables resuming behind a nice trial win, and blinkers removed. Comes to hand sharply in the prep, and took good strides last campaign winning a CL2 in Canberra, then twice beaten by a whisker up to BM 64 provincial level before disappointing in a BM 66.
Dangers: Naturally promising and lightly raced 8. Who Goes There is a big threat after a dominant front-running win first-up in CL3 company after a 38-week spell. Has a 60 percent win rate from five starts. Lightly raced mare 12. Lounerse has to tuck in from a wide draw, but has won three from six, the latest tracking the speed before finishing strongest in a CL3 Include home tracker 5. Sting Jet who drops in grade; and 14. Gold Lover second-up in all exotic plays.
How to play it: Code In Time to win
BEST BETS:
R2 7. STAR BLING
R4 1. LIKE LUKEY
BEST VALUE:
R7 6. CODE IN TIME