By Neil Evans
Heavy 9 and rail out 5m from 800m to 400m; True the remainder; Cut/Away applies:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (900m): |
---|
We start over the short course at set weights on a track slowly drying out after plenty of lead-up rain. Progressive four-year-old 1. Here Comes Hogan can go one better third-up back 100m in distance, and reloading after missing last week's abandoned Muswellbrook card. Has been strong through the line in two runs this prep, and stiff not to win at Wyong last time. Finds a thinner race on a suitably bigger track with a more experienced rider on board. Gets a charmed run right behind the speed, and emerges as the one to beat having been preferred here to Wyong on Sunday.
Dangers: Big market watch on Pierro filly 8. Varazze who debuts for the Bjorn Baker stable behind two very progressive trials. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Crazy Mikki, a mare by Mikki Isle also on debut off two forward trials; while 2. All Too Vegas can add value into trifecta and first four returns.
How to play it: Here Comes Hogan to win
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m): |
---|
The market will tell a story aboard resuming mare 10. Lunaire, but having won two soft track trials in smart fashion, she looks ready to return with a bang having bypassed last Friday's meeting at Taree. Well bred ex-Victorian now in a leading Scone stable, and she's bred to thrive in the conditions with gear changes in play.
Dangers: Keep safe lightly raced and emerging 13. Withstand who will relish a bit more ground after hitting the line late in two runs at Muswellbrook, the latest when backed from $3.80 into $2.60. There was plenty to like about the first-up run here of home tracker 6. Eclair who fought on strong from the front, but while she stays at the trip with extra fitness on her side, has to get across from an even wider draw. Another one on debut and trained on the track, 8. Kimberly Moon starts in winkers behind two progressive trials, and bred to handle the going; while 1. It's Showtime who settles back and hits the line is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Lunaire to win
Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m): |
---|
Trained on the track, talented mare 6. Fill A Promise is building a very impressive record, and shoots for a fifth straight win after leading all the way in heavy going at Quirindi five weeks ago. Back a furlong in trip off the freshen-up, and four of her five career wins have come over this short journey. Scratched from Wyong on Sunday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Lightly raced and smart five-year-old 4. Last Frontier is a threat resuming without blinkers off two impressive trials, although untested in heavy going. Has won three from four so far, all at his Tamworth base, although not overly well treated at the weights in this company. Big watch too on smart home tracker 1. Jacenza resuming. Hasn't publicly trialed, but comes to hand quickly, and a 4kg jockey booking off-sets the big weight. Include 8. More Than A Star fourth-up with blinkers off in exotic plays; while 2. Mystery Lad can also run into the minor money second-up.
How to play it: Fill A Promise to win
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m): |
---|
Provincial-based 3. Invincible Whip is superior value here second-up, with blinkers removed. Capped a consistent first prep late last year by winning his maiden here in dominant fashion, and held his ground in a deeper CL1 at Newcastle when resuming. Drawn to get good cover just off the speed, and looks well treated at this country level after the claim. Bred to thrive in heavy.
Dangers: 8. Hot Bandit did his best work late resuming in a handy Cl1, and drew to get cover here back in the pack. Watch the betting on lightly raced ex Victorian 1. I Am Sugoi having his first outing for the new Gosford stable behind two improving trials. Keep safe too at good odds 2. Great Siege third-up.
How to play it: Invincible Whip to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 82 HCP (1300m): |
---|
Home tracker 4. Rajnish is primed to strike, coming back in distance from an even effort in a deeper CL3 Highway at Randwick, and five weeks between runs. Previously had missed narrowly in a similar grade at Dubbo, and with gear changes in play, right at home settling just off the speed in his preferred ground.
Dangers: Talented mare 8. Brok Cafe flew home to win first-up in heavy going at this track, although tested here stepping up sharply in distance and grade. Tough 6. Dirty Merchant has been sparingly raced this prep, and stuck on well in the deeper Bengalla Cup at Muswellbrook three weeks ago. 3. Rebel's Edge is hard fit, and produced his best run in a while charging home late behind the winner in the Gold Cup Preview at Dubbo; while 7. Syrian Star is the clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Rajnish to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m): |
---|
Hard to go past progressive mare 9. Smokin' Crazy resuming for the leading home track stable. Was competitive in tougher races through the spring of last year, and typically has been fitted to run out the mile fresh via two quiet trials up to 1000m. Gets in well at the weights after the jockey's claim.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 6. Media Frenzy third-up over more ground for the in-form John Thompson yard. Both 3. Surreal I Am fourth-up; and 8. Sebilla reloading off a fresh CL1 win here 17 days ago; can run into the money.
How to play it: Smokin' Crazy to win
Race 7 MAIDEN HCP (1300m): |
---|
Tough and open closer for the maidens, but lightly raced 5. Hell Of A Lad can go one better, and peak at his third start in heavy going. Worked home fairly on debut behind a handy winner before being taken to the front here in a Super Maiden 17 days ago, and only gunned down late by a smart one.
Dangers: Watch the betting closely on metro colt 9. Yabby Pump who chased gallantly on debut at Wyong; while 3. Classic Poetry also stuck on well at Newcastle in her first run for six weeks. Gap to the rest headed by 17. Just Easy second-up; while 1. Mighty Zou on debut as a gelding by Zoustar for the local Rod Northam yard; and another first starter 11. Empusa, a filly by Hellbent for the Annabel Neasham stable; can both add value into trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Hell Of A Lad to win
BEST BETS:
R1 1. HERE COMES HOGAN
R5 4. RAJNISH
BEST VALUE:
R4 3. INVINCIBLE WHIP