By Neil Evans
Track Soft 6 and rail out 3m from 800m to WP and True the remainder:
Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2200m): |
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On a surface likely to hover around Good and just into Soft range, locally trained and lightly raced 3. Supertrail can peak here for the first time on home track and out over the longer journey. Led all the way in dominant fashion at Muswellbrook first outing for the Brett Cavanough stable before sticking on strong from behind the speed a fortnight ago. Bred to run this out being by dual Cox Plate winner So You Think, and crucially blinkers go on.
Dangers: Both 8. Ten Downing Street and 9. Warialda Warrior come through the same CL1 provincial form-line deep into their prep, and can figure in the money. Honest home tracker 2. Piccapeppa has been finding the line okay, often without luck at crucial times. Again drawn to get plenty of cover over this longer trip, with gear changes and a significant jockey change, but still a query stepping up sharply in trip from the mile; while improving 4. Loves Rules also shapes to relish the longer trip third-up from a soft draw.
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How to play it: Supertrail to win
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): |
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The late money will be a solid indicator here, with a few debutants on show. One of them, though, looms as the clear one to beat in well bred three-year-old 6. Are You Joking by prolific sire Shalaa. Has been given plenty of time, and sparingly trialled, winning the latest in smart fashion. Draws low, and too jockey Aaron Bullocks sticks solid for race day.
Dangers: Off two trial wins and wearing blinkers, Snitzel gelding 8. Nebraskan looks ready to throw down a big challenge at home on debut. Locally trained Star Witness gelding 1. Fifty Five Mustang starts his career off two easy trials, with important gear additions. Included in exotics 10. Fuld's Doubt third-up with an edge in race fitness.
How to play it: Are You Joking to win and quinella: 6 and 8
Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m): |
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Lightly raced local four-year-old 5. Haysiri has plenty of ability, and resumes in a fairly weak race for this class off a quiet trial.
Dangers: Tough local 1. Starry Jack was strong at both ends winning his maiden second-up, and the rise in class is off-set by a nice weight drop after the jockey's claim. Hard fit and progressive 3. Eighty Eighty Stars was heavily backed before sweeping home to claim his maiden fourth-up, and is well up to this next level; while watching the betting closely on home tracker 7. Turnaway who resumes behind two forward trials, and was scratched from a very winnable race last week to be saved for this.
How to play it: Haysiri to win
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (900m): |
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Back to the flying short course fourth-up is the right ingredient for underrated four-year-old 3. Waterworld 20 days between runs. Showed speed before being run down late in a deeper CL2 here before sticking on okay in provincial company. Weight rise has been off-set with a 2kg-claiming jockey booked, and is suitably drawn to stay away from the fence.
Dangers: After a smart fresh win in this grade back in late August, 2. Aquarter was ridden quieter here off a six week break, and found the line well. Suspect he'll be ridden similar here from a wide draw, and looks fairly placed at the weights after the jockey's 3kg claim; while 8. Gerety is an improving and versatile filly who comes through a handy CL1 second-up. Include 5. Nosey Parker deep into his prep; and 7. Skaiffe fourth-up; in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Waterworld to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m): |
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Not much separates a few of these. Home track mare 4. Lady Percival's is well placed staying at the distance third-up. Hit the line late from midfield a fortnight ago, but much more comfortable on the bigger track, with blinkers coming off.
Dangers: Honest and still improving 2. Pyromania from the Bjorn Baker stable steps back up to this level after sweeping home to win a thin Class 1 12 days ago. Tough provincial mare 5. Adelinda kept finding the line in a CL3 here 11 days ago, and again draws to get plenty of cover off speed. Expect second-up improvement at huge odds from stablemate 3. Flying Scotsman over a bit further with blinkers back on.
How to play it: Lady Percival's to win
Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m): |
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Sticking strong with emerging colt 11. Invincible Whip despite going under as a red hot favorite here 11 days ago. Still made up plenty of ground at his second start in what was a handy maiden, and better suited this time in a bigger field with more pressure on from further out, with blinkers being added.
Dangers: From a nice cover draw just off speed, Lope de vega three-year-old 12. Ribaud from the Annabel Neasham yard looms as a clear threat. Was well backed before finding one better first-up off a five month break, and the extra furlong is a plus. Big watch on Dundeel four-year-old 1. I'm Done debuting in blinkers as a gelding behind two trials on the Beaumont track, comfortably winning the latest. Trained on the track, Husson mare 7. Le Souci is one of three Matthew Smith-trained runners accepted, and starts her career off two quiet trials. Include in exotics, 2. Noble One at his third start.
How to play it: Invincible Whip to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 74 HCP - SPRINT SERIES (1100m): |
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Plenty of chances in this sprint headed by tough veteran 7. Tim's Principal who continues to charge home from the back in handy country features. Again well treated at the weights after the junior jockey's 4kg allowance, and although coming back 150m in trip, relishes rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Local mare 2. Very Sharp is hard fit fifth-up; and provincial-based 9. Cripps Tonite should be right at his peak third-up coming back from BM 72 metro company; while 12. Ranuncula is better suited back in this company, and can run into the money.
How to play it: Tim's Principal to win
Race 8 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1200m): |
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Emerging colt 5. Dagon resumes for only his second start for the powerful Maher-Eustace stable. Has been strong through the line in two provincial trials, and the blinkers going on here is a big pointer in what is now a weakened race.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for improving three-year-old 7. Lunartie who was rock solid on debut in a tougher provincial maiden. Metro-based 3. Newsbeat will find this more to his liking after working home okay at big odds behind a smart one when fresh at the provincials. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Dagon to win
BEST BETS:
R6 11. INVINCIBLE WHIP
R8 5. DAGON
BEST VALUE:
R7 7. TIM'S PRINCIPAL