By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 7 and rail out 5m from 800m to WP & 3m the remainder
Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1600m): |
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Competitive opener over the mile, although it sets up nicely for improving local mare and reliable wet tracker 7. Gold Lunar fourth-up. Was unwanted in betting when hitting the line here 18 days ago in a deeper race, and ready to peak, getting out to her preferred distance.
Dangers: Lightly raced two-year-old 2. Diatonic can give a big sight after clinging on to win his maiden here over the same trip. Drawn the widest, but experience and fitness are on the up. Consistent provincial mare 5. Just Like Lisa (also accepted for Dubbo) gets weight relief and a soft run back midfield, although taking on some better ones here. Keep safe home track mare 3. Elegant Poetess with a weight advantage after the claim; while 1. Bill Peyto who is honest; and 6. Oakfield Tepee from a better draw; can run into the minor end of the prize.
How to play it: Gold Lunar each way and box exacta 2,5,7
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (900m): |
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All aboard well-touted Exosphere three-year-old 4. Zenti on debut with gear additions. Was very strong through the line in the second of two trials, and bred to eat up the ground.
Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 2. Hypnosis was well supported when hitting the line first-up, and importantly stays at the short trip. Big watch on two-year-old Deep Field first starter 11. Custo who bolted in a recent trial here; while Pariah two-year-old 13. Garside peaks third-up down in weight.
How to play it: Zenti to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m): |
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Open race with a tonne of chances. Leaning to underrated provincial mare 1. Visceral at the value resuming off an 11 week break. Has been given two progressive trials up to 1200m, and front concussion plates coming off is a key indicator. Gets right back in at the weights after the junior rider's full claim.
Dangers: Home track filly 10. Shemakesastatement is hard fit, and has finished hard just behind the placegetters in her last two, with winkers being added here. Improving 2. Hemsworth is second-up off a nine week break, and comes through a stronger CL3 formline. Honest four-year-old 7. Cheeky Nugget gets a nice trail from the draw. Both 3. Rhineland second-up; and 5. Don't Forget Dad coming off a maiden win; are worthy inclusions in all exotic bets.
How to play it: Visceral each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1100m): |
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The wraps are good for NZ-bred provincial debutant 7. Willinga Freefall who opens his career behind a recent impressive trial win in soft going. Looks well above average, and is by renowned Kiwi mudlark and dual Doncaster winner Sacred Falls. The one to beat!
Dangers: Loved the tenacity shown here by 4. Tennagain just being edged out at his second start, although first time in these conditions.
How to play it: Willinga Freefall to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1700m): |
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Tricky affair over this middle distance. Locally-trained five-year-old 3. Fanmalia is hard fit and never raced better. Hit the line hard in two similar-graded races either side of a spell before sweeping home for a deserved win at Tamworth. Building a nice record on rain-affected ground, and the extra 100m is a further plus back at home third-up.
Dangers: Tough four-year-old and last start BM 66 winner 1. Scorched Land is an obvious threat from a soft draw, but won't want to drift too far back under a big weight. Keep safe four-year-old 5. Casirina who peaks third-up in ground he relishes; while including 9. Persian Beauty in exotics.
How to play it: Fanmalia to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1100m): |
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Keen on talented Rubick filly 14. Opal Ridge who resumes after a stunning debut win in Canberra back in January when missing the start before rounding them up with ease. Given plenty of time, and stable has since relocated to Scone.
Dangers: Watch the betting on provincial three-year-old 6. Uzziah who hasn't started since being well outclassed in the much tougher Group 2 Run To The Rose last September, but has won both lead-up trials narrowly. Plenty of hopes further out in the market headed by 2. Apache Blue who improves sharply second-up.
How to play it: Opal Ridge to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 7 MAIDEN HCP (1300m): |
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A stack of chances too in this headed by progressive filly 6. Valoria who can pounce at her third start. Charged late on debut at Canterbury to miss by a neck in heavy ground before nothing went to plan from a tougher draw at Muswellbrook. Drawn out, but suited on this circuit, and a superior rider goes on.
Dangers: Promising filly 4. Rockbarton Ruby loomed to win second-up here before edged out by one who had enjoyed a much softer run. Will have to slot in from a wide barrier, but very capable on rain-affected ground. Emerging two-year-old filly 13. Powerful Peg must be respected off an impressive debut, hitting the line hard from a mile back, and draws to get a softer run here; while big watch on metro three-year-old 3. Talisman Saber wearing blinkers on debut.
How to play it: Valoria each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m): |
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Open sprint to finish. Lightly raced three-year-old 7. Vengeful stalked the speed before sweeping clear for a dominant win second-up, and is well up to this next level drawn much closer in where he can either lead, or take a sit right behind the pace.
Dangers: Expecting sharp second-up improvement from lightly raced home tracker 9. Russley Crown over a bit more ground. Include improving three-year-old 1. Taborca behind a dominant second-up maiden win at Tamworth.
How to play it: Vengeful to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R2 4. ZENTI
R5 3. FANMALIA
BEST VALUE:
R7 6. VALORIA