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Neil Evans' Tips For Port Macquarie (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 7/Heavy 8 and rail True

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Tricky middle distance test for the maidens to get us rolling on a track that is likely to topple down into heavy range with plenty of rain forecast. Provincial mare 10. Scanlan looms as the most progressive runner in the race third-up. Has been right on the winner's heels in her last couple, and unlike most here has very handy wet track credentials.

Dangers: Improving three-year-old 7. Tiva Bay failed to hit the line when well supported on debut, but will find this easier and blinkers have been added. Provincial four-year-old 4. Straya Pride is tough, and has been around the money for most of this prep. Gets an overdue class drop back to country level, although untested on rain-affected ground. Included in exotics 11. About The Moon fifth-up from the inside gate.

How to play it: Scanlan to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Keen on Japanese-sired three-year-old 5. Taking The Mikki who was very strong through the line in two recent trials, and debuts from a low draw. Has shown a liking for wet tracks in trial work stretching back five months.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old 1. Intole Rant is well over the odds second-up after a fair return in tougher provincial grade; while three-year-old Deep Field stablemate 4. Mr Bingo debuts off two progressive trials. Include 9. Tupelwara second-up; and 8. Sneaky Truths first-up from two trials; if you're playing the trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Taking The Mikki to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Like four-year-old mare 9. Not Taking It third-up at the value on a track she enjoys. Has finished solidly after tracking the speed in two runs back, and placed in her only two previous runs in heavy going.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 14. Power Conductor who draws the inside at her second start; and improving mare 6. American Anthem second-up. Gap to the rest with 8. Khulan a knock-out chance first-up behind two trials, with blinkers added; while watching the betting at bigger odds on Dissident four-year-old 3. Sacred Delago who debuts off two forward trials.

How to play it: Not Taking It each way and trifecta 6,9,14/3,6,8,9,14/3,6,8,9,14. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 OPEN HCP (1200m):

Tough sprint, but keen on lightly raced five-year-old 6. Two Up who resumes behind two trials, and is the superior wet tracker. Won twice at this track in soft ground last prep, and his fresh record is smart enough.

Dangers: There are few tougher mares in country NSW than five-year-old 3. Cassy's Sister who has been in the placings in five spaced runs since early June. Drops back from the stronger Spring Cup at Tamworth, and looks well treated at the weights. Only concern is if the track becomes too wet. Seasoned seven-year-old 1. Juventus returns off a four month spell and two trials, with a 4kg allowance. Normally fires on rain-affected ground, and was scratched early from Gosford on Tuesday to run here. Provincial mare 2. Leave Me Some resumes off a quiet trial from the inside gate.

How to play it: Two Up to win and box exacta 1,3,6. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Resuming and progressive three-year-old 7. Jet Pack can strike first-up in conditions he handles. Won his maiden here and then beat all bar the winner in a deeper CL1 on a Heavy 10 before spelling, and has been fitted with two forward trials. The one to beat.

Dangers: Local four-year-old 1. Klopp is a real wet tracker, and should be right at home in the ground by the time we get to this. Powered home from midfield to land his maiden here second-up on a Soft 7, but poorly treated at the weights up to 60kg. Improving 5. Offyarocatwo can figure third-up from a better draw; while keeping safe provincial filly 8. Dawntillarvi third-up with blinkers applied.

How to play it: Jet Pack to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

Moderate affair for this grade, and that augurs well for tough and still improving mare 1. Lobster Noodles who finished best to claim a BM 66 with more depth at her first NSW run. Hasn't been tested in real wet ground, although bred to handle it, and still hasn't been caught by the handicapper after the rider's claim.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old 5. Bak Da Man finished off nicely resuming despite being unwanted in betting, and drops in weight for this tougher grade; while 6. Trescha can run into the placings second-up.

How to play it: Lobster Noodles to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 CLASS 2 HCP (1500m):

As long as the inside part is holding up, promising four-year-old 1. Five Crowns can keep his perfect career start intact, and make it three from three. Has shown fine acceleration to sweep home twice so far, and supremely bred to handle the wet being by two-time Doncaster winning mudlark Sacred Falls out of a Kiwi mare who was always good on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 2. Dalgarno is the immediate threat shooting for a third win from four starts this prep. Was dominant from well off the speed last time, and bred to get much further. Doubt anything else can win, but improving mare 6. Dulcima is a knock-out chance deep into her prep, and only career win so far came on a heavy rating.

How to play it: Five Crowns to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

We round out the meeting over the sprint trip. Ex-Victorian mare 2. Lucky Sham defied a betting drift first-up in NSW, surging home here to win a CL1 with handy depth, and this isn't strong.

Dangers: Honest mare 5. Slice Of Heaven can peak fourth-up; and 7. Bay Of Bengal gets a much-needed big weight drop third-up after failing at Coffs a fortnight back.

How to play it: Lucky Sham to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 5. TAKING THE MIKKI
R5 7. JET PACK

BEST VALUE:
R3 9. NOT TAKING IT

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Gosford meeting

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