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Neil Evans' Tips For Nowra (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 2m from 1200m to 800m, then 4m to 350m into a Cut/Away

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Progressive metro three-year-old 5. Little Cointreau can break through third-up off a six week freshen-up in his second prep. Has been strong at both ends into a place in consecutive provincial maidens, and kept ticking over via a smart trial win, he rates a mile on top of the rest here. Draws to get a lovely camp right behind the speed.

Dangers: Doubt there are any if the top selection jumps cleanly, but 3. Deep Fury who is hard fit and draws the inside, and lightly raced mare 7. Leopardess third-up; can run the minor positions.

How to play it: Little Cointreau to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Very weak affair. Like 3. Jacob Joe who is deep into the prep, and can utilise handy tactical speed from a low draw.

Dangers: 2. Mosgold is drawn wide, but wasn't far away here 19 days ago in a race of more depth. At bigger odds, 4. Up To Me can pump value into exotics first-up.

How to play it: Jacob Joe to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):

Back to the shorter course here, and is shapes ideally for progressive three-year-old 3. Dreaming Of Vegas who can go back-to-back rising in class off a nine day turnaround. Loved the way he quickened from back in the field to win a CL1 over this distance last time, and still on the up, he can go on to win much better races.

Dangers: Metro mare 1. Euphrates Dream is the clear threat from a sound draw. Has early tactical speed, and only succumbed narrowly in two runs this prep against deeper opposition. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Spinosaurus third-up.

How to play it: Dreaming Of Vegas to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 4 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Plenty of chances in this, but lightly raced Shalaa filly 13. Twelfth Night boasts superior progression, and looms as the one to beat third-up. Did her best work late resuming in a stronger race at Hawkesbury before ridden closer and missing by a whisker at Newcastle. That reads very well for this dropping down to only half kilo over he limit weight, and behind an easy recent metro trial, she can settle back off the speed and produce a superior final 400m burst.

Dangers: Big watch on 10. Really Serious suited fourth-up over a furlong further from a softer draw; while 6. Mickey's Pride is also over the odds 26 days between runs, and dropping back sharply to a distance he won over two starts ago. Include 2. Notabadone up to the mile fourth-up; and 9. Cullier second-up; in trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Twelfth Night to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

Another wide market in a very average affair augurs well for six-year-old mare 4. Temoin Chaud who can finally snap a long winning drought. Has been mixing her form under similar weights all prep in generally deeper races, but from a handy trailing draw, the drop back a furlong to her pet trip is pivotal.

Dangers: Another honest battler drawn to be in the finish is 7. Rent A Rock who gets back out to a more suitable distance if he backs up in four days. Expect sharp second-up improvement from 1. Blazing Sunrise who finds a much thinner race. Honest 3. Snappy Jim, a stablemate of the top selection; and 5. Port Douglas back a little in grade and trip; are both capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Temoin Chaud to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m):

Expecting promising So You Think filly 8. Divine Vicky to continue on her merry way reloading six weeks after beating a handy provincial field on debut. Given an easy time at the trials since, and reportedly continuing to work well, she is well placed in this line-up only half kilo over the minimum weight, and with the early market rival preferred at Newcastle on Monday.

Dangers: Metro four-year-old 1. Baranof improves sharply second-up in a thinner race from a better draw; while first-up winner 3. King Charles heads the rest.

How to play it: Divine Vicky to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

The closer for the maidens shapes ideally for improving metro three-year-old 3. Vancouver's Crown third-up. Was ridden quieter near he back in a deeper provincial race 12 days ago before attacking the line late into a place when backed from $4.60 into $3.60. Should get enough speed on here to settle back and let rip over the final 350m.

Dangers: Rival city raider 6. Hot Sundae draws to find a handy spot on-speed third-up. Watch the market closely with All Too Hard three-year-old 1. Accredited who debuts for a strong metro stable behind two improving trials. Drawn out, 9. Fameaux second-up; heads the rest.

How to play it: Vancouver's Crown to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R5 4. TEMOIN CHAUD
R6 8. DIVINE VICKY

BEST VALUE:
R4 13. TWELFTH NIGHT

All the entries, form and replays for Tuesday's Nowra meeting

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