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Neil Evans' Tips For Newcastle (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 10 and rail out 11m:

Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Testing opener on a track that is unlikely to get out of heavy range. This shapes nicely for progressive provincial mare 1. Dark Herring second-up after by-passing a winnable race at Port on Sunday. Was $5.50 into $4.20 when hitting the line well from midfield first-up in a similar CL1 at Dubbo, and a proven weight carrier.

Dangers: Talented Exosphere three-year-old 5. Rhineland resumes behind two quiet trials. Was never far away in some deeper races last prep, and leading home stable has made a key gear change. Big watch on stablemate filly 2. Eclair Sunrise resuming off a steady trial; while improving filly 4. Island Lass goes into exotics.

How to play it: Dark Herring to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 2 MAIDEN PLAGTE (1350m):

Weak maiden at set weights, and that augurs well for Rebel Raider three-year-old 5. Stolen Drift who makes his debut. Has been up to the mark in two 1000m trials, and leading rider steers for an underrated country stable.

Dangers: Expecting big second-up improvement from three-year-old 1. Apache Doc with winkers off, and some weight relief after the claim.

How to play it: Stolen Drift to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1350m):

Home track mare 4. Miss Scalini looks close to a good thing now second-up with a 2kg claim in a race severely weakened by scratchings. Was steady in deeper grade resuming off a near seven month break, and handles heavy going.

Dangers: Keep safe 9. Rock Step fourth-up who is building a nice wet track record; while 10. Mon Amore is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Miss Scalini to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1900m):

Hard to go past progressive three-year-old 3. Mojo Classic who roared home from the back to claim his maiden fourth-up and four weeks between runs. Races like he will eat up the extra trip, especially sticking to a big track, and he's bred to thrive on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Stablemate filly 4. Stella Glow is also on the rise having notched her maiden win in similar ground third-up as a well backed favourite, and comes through some handy formlines. Keep safe 2. Duble Memory who surged home from a wide draw to win a CL1 in heavy ground third-up; while 1. Leica Bita Fun fourth-up; and honest 5. Thailand who draws inside; are both capable of running into the minor end of the money.

How to play it: Mojo Classic to win and quinela 3 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

The girls lock horns in a tricky sprint, with several first starters who are likely to have a big impact on the market. One of them, home track Teofilo three-year-old 4. Mirrie Dancer can make an instant statement. Liked the way she worked home strong from a mile back in heavy ground in the latest of two trials, and she looks well prepared for this distance. Drawn wide, but that might be too her pattern advantage.

Dangers: Provincial three-year-old 5. Oakfield Redgum returns for only a second start behind a steady trial, and draws to get cover. Big watch on debutant Nicconi three-year-old 3. Golden Gate who has been taken along slowly at the trials. Liked the way he's performed in two hit-outs, the latest slow to begin and not settling early before working home well in open company, and is bred to handle the conditions.

How to play it: Mirrie Dancer each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):

Like provincial seven-year-old 4. Emperor Harada on suitable heavy ground.

Dangers: Metro six-year-old 1. Skyray with multiple gear changes third-up is the clear threat in what is now a very thin affair.

How to play it: Emperor Harada to win and quinella 1 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Lonhro three-year-old 3. Hotstep debuts behind two forward trials on rain-affected ground. Trial jockey sticks for the real thing, and significantly he wears blinkers in a race that's down to four runners.

Dangers: Another first starter in blinkers, 2. Beer Palace has had three recent trials and is the clear threat.

How to play it: Hotstep to win and quinella 2 and 3
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R4 3. MOJO CLASSIC
R7 3. HOTSTEP

BEST VALUE:
R5 4. MIRRIE DANCER

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Newcastle meeting

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