By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 4m from 900m to 300m & True the remainder:
Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m): |
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We start over a mile on a surface that will likely get back into good range, with dry and warm weather forecast. Like ultra honest five-year-old 1. Not Too Bad to go back-to-back, and get punters off to a flying start. Hit back after a couple of disappointing runs in deeper fields going home too well to easily claim a similar race at Wellington, and despite climbing to a career high weight, he draws to get a lovely smoother behind the leader, and a top country jockey sticks solid.
Dangers: Drawn the inside, hard fit 3. Foxy Baroness is a genuine threat after charging home late to be beaten just over a length in a handy CL2. Be surprised if anything else wins, but keep safe 4. Zounile up in grade, but down significantly in weight after the claim; and 5. Ready Made Doll who draws to find a nice trail stepping up from an easy win in weaker class.
How to play it: Not Too Bad to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1100m): |
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Improving five-year-old 1. Olimba almost looks to have a weak race at his mercy fourth-up. Ridden closer to the speed and dug in to only go under by a long head at Newcastle, and shapes very fairly at the weights coming back to this company.
Dangers: Despite a wide draw, improving filly 10. Sheza Rainbird can mount a challenge second-up in a race of less depth. At early double figure odds, keep watch on 3. Patron Of Power who was only fair, resuming in a better race at Wellington, but gets a key gear change and some weight relief; while 5. Independent Scoop is the best of the rest third-up.
How to play it: Olimba to win
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (800m): |
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Back to the flying short course at set weights, and with good tactical speed and a drop in quality, can't go past Outreach filly 10. I'm Independent peaking at her fourth start, with blinkers added. Has missed out narrowly in her last two at Dubbo and Warren, both times from right behind the speed, and she looks ready to break through against this lot.
Dangers: Big watch on progressive 11. He's All Style who needs a scratching to get a run. Gets gear changes second-up in his first full prep after running home well enough fresh in a deeper Super Maiden. Lightly raced 3. Jackabrae Lad can run home into the minor money at his third start; as can 8. Callie Cool at her fourth start with blinkers going on.
How to play it: I'm Independent to win
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m): |
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At the value, tough mare 9. Loch Anton Lady can upset a short priced favourite fifth-up. Worked home fairly in two maidens before being ridden a shade closer in heavy ground at Orange and finishing hard to miss by a neck. Gets in well at the weights after the claim, and just needs clear air from the 400m.
Dangers: Naturally, progressive 6. Rothgate will take a power of beating if he can slot in from the wide barrier. Ran home well in a deeper line-up at Wellington. Watch the market on lightly raced filly 12. The Git Up who resumes in blinkers for the first time behind a quiet trial; while both 7. Thirteen Red third-up and 12. Outback Crumpet at her second start; can add value into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Loch Anton Lady to win and quinella 6 and 9
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m): |
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Very tricky and open affair. Plenty of value surrounds capable four-year-old 5. Aussie Pharoah resuming. Was in and around the money right through his last prep, including a smart and well backed maiden win at Dubbo, and has been tuned up for this with two quieter trials.
Dangers: Expect second-up improvement from 7. Hallowed Star who worked home only fairly first-up, and will thrive on the extra furlong. Plenty of respect for 2. Boongarra Girl who is versatile and shoots for a third straight win. Bounded to the front and gave nothing else a chance in deeper class at Wellington, but jumps up 5kg here from a wider draw. Consistent 8. Illusive Star is right in the mix at good odds from a low draw; while 10. Luna Eagle has hit the line hard into a place in her last two, and blinkers have been added. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Aussie Pharoah to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1100m): |
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Right on cue, plenty of chances across this grade of sprinter, starting with resuming four-year-old 2. Johnny Dash who looks well placed rolling forward from a handy draw. Progressed nicely in two winter runs, sweeping home for a dominant BM 74 win before spelling. Looked right up to the mark winning a recent 1000m trial.
Dangers: Exciting mare 4. Din reloads after exploding home to win a deeper BM 66 at Wellington second-up. Another last start winner at this level as a hot favourite resuming, 5. Overextend is headed for bigger races, but wouldn't be diving into any cramped price from a tricky draw. Watch the betting on 10. Musical Affair first-up from a good gate behind a steady trial, and is a stablemate of the top selection; while at big odds last start CL2 winner 11. Minnewater and 12. Tell Tales are both capable of sneaking into the minor money.
How to play it: Johnny Dash to win
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m): |
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Same trip sprint to finish, and it shapes well for progressive mare 9. Rubi Air second-up. Hit the line well when resuming in BM 58 grade coming off a 30-week break, and getting back on top of the ground here, with a key jockey change, are big pluses.
Dangers: Plenty of them, especially rival Dubbo mare 8. Invest In Love who has to overcome a wide gate second-up, but was dominant from just off the speed when winning a handy maiden. At bigger odds, keep safe 10. Run Chelsea down sharply in weight off a fresh maiden win; while 5. Cumnock placed in two from three this prep; and 1. Destiny's Bounty resuming with blinkers back on; can pump plenty of value into exotic returns.
How to play it: Rubi Air to win
BEST BETS:
R1 1. NOT TOO BAD
R6 2. JOHNNY DASH
BEST VALUE:
R5 5. AUSSIE PHAROAH
All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Narromine meeting