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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail True

Race 1 CLASS 2 HCP (1750m):

Promising Real Impact filly 3. Angelical has won both starts so far narrowly, but they've been full of determination and merit in races with handy depth. Step up in trip now a further benefit, and she draws to get ideal cover right behind the speed.

Dangers: Rival Scone four-year-old 2. Sir Diamond charged home from a mile back to claim a CL1 third-up; while metro four-year-old 1. Rockover has worked home okay in his last two, and will relish the much bigger track.

How to play it: Angelical to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

Tough maiden over the short course, but keen at the value on Stratum Star filly 10. Milingimbi who makes her debut in blinkers off two progressive trials.

Dangers: Provincial three-year-old 2. Rockbarton Pack only needs to progress off his tidy debut run at home to be a big threat. Scratched from Taree on Monday to run here, 5. Mr Bingo gets a timely drop in class at his third start. Led for a long way on debut at Port when hard in the market before being swamped behind a smart one at Gosford. Included in exotics debutant filly 19. The Regular Show who resumes at his home track if he gets a run.

How to play it: Milingimbi each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

Not much easier than a Powerball draw this one, with any number of hopes. Leaning to three-year-old first starter 3. Superargo who will be fit and forward enough after three 1000m trials in a month, winning the latest impressively. By speed sire Super One, and starts his career with blinkers on.

Dangers: Metro filly 7. Mishka Magic is over the odds third-up from a softer draw. Keep safe provincial filly 11. Deelosh who was preferred here to Taree on Monday, Easy in betting when working home okay in a deeper race on the Beaumont track, and a little weight drop over further are pluses. Improving filly and 14. Rothrock goes in all trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Superargo each way. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

A little more quality in this one headed by tough provincial three-year-old 1. Reggie's Boy who can bounce off a good chasing effort on debut at Tamworth and blitz this lot from a softer draw. Had previously trialled well, and a top-notch trainer has made some key gear changes.

Dangers: Smart Missile filly 8. Miss Tambo debuts behind a dominant trial win; while 12. Lucky Crumpet is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Reggie's Boy to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Tricky maiden over the middle distance at set weights. Loved the fast-finishing effort of lightly raced five-year-old provincial mare 11. Fairey Barracuda third-up at Taree when pulling a heap of ground. Should be right at her peak now over 200m further on a long run home that will be right up her alley.

Dangers: Strong and progressive filly 12. Miss Calculation was good to the line first-up for a year behind a smart winner, and another one who should thrive on this bigger and wider circuit. Improving 1. Cantrell was fancied from double figure odds before working home late second-up, and looking for more ground now. Winkers go back on talented three-year-old 7. Indicative who was heavily backed when just missing at Scone second-up, but drawn awkwardly. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Fairey Barracuda each way and box trifecta 1,7,11,12. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

Another challenging and wide open affair. Underrated provincial seven-year-old 4. Highjacker can go back-to-back down a little in grade. Swept home to beat a handy BM 68 field second-up, and drawn to get plenty of cover off the speed on his preferred dry surface.

Dangers: Keep very safe improving colt 12. Rebel's Edge who finished off nicely in stronger Highway grade second-up, and blinkers have been added. Similar Tamworth four-year-old 2. Highlights who didn't do much first-up in a CL2 after a tough run, but can improve sharply on the bigger track. Include in wider exotics 5. Fanmalia third-up from a low draw; 9. The Scotsman who led all the way in a weaker race last start; and 10. Prodigal Prince who is hard fit and comes off a similar graded win at Scone.

How to play it: Highjacker to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1280m):

Good quality race for this grade. Talented provincial three-year-old 8. Trumpster can make it two straight wins fourth-up after finishing best to claim his maiden on the Beaumont track three weeks ago. Still well on the rise, and draws to get a nice trail just off the speed.

Dangers: Emerging provincial three-year-old 7. Rocstar Boy had little or no luck getting home second-up on the Beaumont track after sailing home from well back to land his maiden. Keep safe honest filly 10. Dawntillarvi who gets a cheap run from the inside gate; while resuming four-year-old 3. Mydeel and improving mare 5. Majestic Wings second-up are both in the each-way mix.

How to play it: Trumpster to win and quinella 7 & 8. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1280m):

Same again, although any number of chances in a more modest affair. Despite a plain record from 15 starts, provincial five-year-old 4. The Chosen One is well placed second-up. Hit the line hard resuming in heavy going, and a little more ground on a much bigger track is ideal considering he was placed over a mile last prep.

Dangers: Metro mare 5. Symo's Girl is also bursting to win another race after missing by a whisker in her last two, and draws the inside. Keep safe improving filly and last-start maiden winner 10. Oronoco who carries 1kg less; and 2. Jutland who hit the line impressively fourth-up in similar company at Taree.

How to play it: The Chosen One to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 9 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):

Provincial filly 4. Mabel resumes without publicly trialing, but she comes to hand quickly. Draws to sit just off the speed, was very competitive in deeper races last prep, and charged home to win her maiden at this track in winter.

Dangers: Promising Your Song filly 10. Alicia Roma burst onto the scene with a dominant debut win in a very weak maiden; while four-year-old 3. Greenheart who has beaten all bar the winner in four runs this prep; and 2. Miss Valbonne second-up off a two-year break from the inside draw, and scratched from Taree on Monday to run here; are both knock-out chances.

How to play it: Mabel to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

BEST BETS:
R1 3. ANGELICAL
R9 4. MABEL

BEST VALUE:
R6 4. HIGHJACKER

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Muswellbrook meeting

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