By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail True
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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An opening battle of the debutants headed by Tamworth-based Your Song filly 9. Le Melody who won the second of two recent trials on this track, and rates well above average.
Dangers: I Am Invincible filly 10. Sahana comes out of the same trial as the top selection, and draws right alongside; while Snitzel filly 11. Saivata also won the second of two trials, and wears blinkers.
How to play it: Le Melody to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m): |
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Can't go past provincial five-year-old 2. The Chosen One who was close-up at this track second-up off a long break, and hits fitness here over a bit more ground in a race with less depth.
Dangers: Improving 4. Mr Severino is a serious threat third-up from a better draw, with a senior and far stronger rider taking over. Keep safe 5. Fusaichi Family who draws to get a soft run off the speed with far more experienced jockey back on; while 1. Media Man third-up heads the rest.
How to play it: The Chosen One to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1280m): |
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Tricky affair with a few first starters on show. One of them, Randwick-based Astern three-year-old 3. Pole Position is the one to beat behind two progressive trials up to 1000m.
Dangers: Progressive provincial mare 4. Yes You Think is a threat at his second start. Did some work from the gate on debut at Taree before hitting the line impressively after balancing up late; and even better off here on the bigger track and longer straight. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Bil Colyns who was good late resuming.
How to play it: Pole Position to win and quinella 3 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 SUMMER SIZZLER (1000m): |
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Smart mare 3. Miss Powerbelle resumes for a new local stable. Hasn't started since driving home as a hot favorite in early October to make it four spaced wins on the bounce stretching back 19 months. No public trials, but always comes to hand fresh, and has built a 42 percent winning strike rate from 13 starts.
Dangers: Talented five-year-old 2. Eiger is always a big market watch when resuming. Comes to hand quickly, although inside draw might not be to his advantage, and better served if the track is well in soft range. Tough six-year-old 4. Lord Tony fought on okay after leading in the Inverell Shorts; while 5. Gidgee Guy can run a race first-up off a nice trial; and local five-year-old 7. Bengalla Bay is somewhat of a distance specialist, but likely to need it wetter.
How to play it: Miss Powerbelle to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m): |
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Still over the sprint trip, and this stacks up nicely for progressive filly 6. Phule second-up. Missed by a whisker getting home on a Heavy 10 at Coffs despite getting lost down the straight, and drawn to get an ideal trail just off the speed.
Dangers: Consistent four-year-old 5. Foxstorm finished hard to miss narrowly against similar opposition first-up for 10 weeks, and also better suited on the bigger track. Watch the betting on 4. Sharpay Ruler who hasn't started since leading all the way on debut at Taree 17 months ago, but trialled okay a month back; while 8. Milingimbi progresses off a nice debut win here.
How to play it: Phule to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m): |
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Very tough race, with plenty of chances. Progressive three-year-old 8. Hettinger has shown plenty over the final furlong in two runs since switching from Victoria. Blinkers are back on over a little more ground, and he's primed to peak.
Dangers: Improving three-year-old 7. Ciao Bicky got mobile late second-up behind a smart winner at Taree. Expecting a big second-up run from provincial staying four-year-old 2. Double Award who did his best work late in that same race as the former. Keep safe metro filly 13. Redoute's Soul on debut behind two quiet trials; while improving metro three-year-old 6. Artie's Dreamtime; and hard fit 10. Thunder Knob both go in wider exotics.
How to play it: Hettinger to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP - CLASS 2 & ABOVE (1280m): |
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The most open race is saved for last. Keen on seven-year-old 8. Dynastic who is hard fit, drawn to find a nice trail and comes out of some deeper form races.
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Dangers: Capable mare 6. Chomeur has trialled nicely since finishing off late in a CL2 when put into an ordinary position back in the field. Honest six-year-old 4. Pass The Card draws to get a soft run just behind the speed, although up sharply in weight; while don't dismiss 1. The Snooperstar at big odds, drawn off the track fourth-up.
How to play it: Dynastic to win. Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R2 2. THE CHOSEN ONE
R5 6. PHULE
BEST VALUE:
R6 8. HETTINGER
All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting