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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 1200m to 300m into a cut/away

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

We begin over the short course on a drying track. Provincial mare 4. Oakfield Blossom can break through at only her second start. Was well backed on debut here when leading for a long way, and the little drop back in trip is ideal with a stronger rider taking over.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by Japanese-sired unraced three-year-old 5. Babayka who has trialled okay and gets a 2kg claim; while 1. Optimo resumes off nice trial work at this track after debuting against city opposition in early winter. Include 12. Dawnburst in exotics

How to play it: Oakfield Blossom to win and trifecta 1,4,5/1,4,5/1,4,5,12. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):

Like how four-year-old 1. Dobbin hit the line from a mile back first-up after missing the kick behind a handy one. With added fitness and switching to the much bigger track, he can pounce second-up at good odds.

Dangers: Progressive and well bred mare 2. Fusaichi Family is a clear threat rising in distance after charging home first-up, although up 2kg to equal topweight. Keep safe 4. Aspen Chase who will find this a little easier third-up from a softer draw; while metro filly 5. Dubai Showgirl drops back from a tough closing effort in a superior provincial field, but faces a task from the wide barrier.

How to play it: Dobbin each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):

Talented mare 4. Unearthed is starting to stretch punters' patience, but she looks well placed here third-up. Flew home late in a handy BM 58 here two weeks back, and can settle closer from the nice gate carrying 2kg less.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old 1. Andorra La Vella should get a comfortable lead from the inside gate, and prove hard to run down. Has been in and around the money all prep, controlling his maiden last start before sailing away. Progressive filly 7. Leading Lady finished best to claim her maiden second-up, and she's another one suited on the bigger circuit; while ex-SA four-year-old 2. King And King is on the next line resuming off two quiet trials.

How to play it: Unearthed to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

Keen on Shalaa three-year-old 10. Mobstar on debut after two recent and progressive trials, winning the latest at this track where the rider barely breathed on him. Looks smart, and drawn to stay out of trouble.

Dangers: Strike time looms for four-year-old and somewhat luckless mare 7. Danzette at her 13th start. Has been close-up nearly all prep in deeper provincial company, finishing well last time after missing the start. Drawn to sit back off the speed with oodles of cover. Lightly raced 2. Fiendish has been placed in three starts to launch his career, but having been heavily backed each time, twice into odds-on, punters aren't happy. Ready for this longer trip, but the awkward draw leaves him under the odds. The blinkers go on 9. Hallowed Son who will drift back from a wide draw and look to charge over them second-up.

How to play it: Mobstar to win and trifecta 7,10/2,7,9,10/2,7,9,10. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Wouldn't be charging into too short a quote, but hard to see provincial five-year-old 1. Oakfield Navajo being rolled third-up and down in class. Tracked the speed before easily winning a CL1 two runs ago, then worked home in a deeper race here two weeks back.

Dangers: Honest 2. Two Ducks Artie has an average strike rate, but draws to get a cosy run on the fence back in the field, and this is a weak affair. Local five-year-old 6. Clogs is best of the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Oakfield Navajo to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

The girls' edition has a bit more class and room to breathe betting-wise. Capable mare 5. Cliffsinger resumes, and maps to get a nice run on or just behind the speed. Has been given two trials up to 1000m, and given she's bred to get much further, this is an ideal starting point.

Dangers: Provincial mare 1. Ciao Uno is a clear threat fourth-up from a nice trailing draw, and is desperate for more ground on a bigger track. Keep safe 3. She's Spicy who is hard fit and dropping in grade.

How to play it: Cliffsinger to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

This shapes nicely for provincial mare 1. Miss Kojiki four weeks between starts. Has been placed in all four spaced runs since resuming in mid July, hitting the line late in the most recent at BM 58 level. At her best when ridden quietly.

Dangers: Provincial filly 4. Tidal Impact has plenty of ability, and resumes for only her third start. Exploded onto the scene as a two-year-old with a runaway country win in heavy ground before returning off a nice week break in Listed metro company where she over-raced badly and dropped out. Given more time, and despite having not publicly trialled, reportedly done plenty of work. Improving three-year-old 2. Saiko is over the odds third-up with winkers added after landing her maiden here two weeks back. Another one resuming, 5. In Spades showed good progression in her first prep winning comfortably this track at his third start before spelling. Trialled okay, and local stable specializes in short-course performers.

How to play it: Miss Kojiki to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

Open and tricky race. Improving four-year-old 6. Previso has been fair at best in three runs since an impressive CL3 win at Tamworth, but there's not much depth in this, and he boasts a superior finishing burst.

Dangers: Honest eight-year-old 7. Weather Channel was solid through the line in a handy provincial BM 64, and drew to get an even softer run here. Keep safe 2. Scorched Land third-up.

How to play it: Previso to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 4. OAKFIELD BLOSSOM
R4 10. MOBSTAR

BEST VALUE:
R6 5. CLIFFSINGER

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting

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