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By Neil Evans

Track likely Heavy 8 and rail out 3m from 1000m to 300m into a Cut/Away

We start a challenging card on a rain-hit track with the youngsters. Keen on Choisir gelding 1. Bush Warrior who cruised home in soft ground to win a provincial trial; and was scratched from Canberra on Friday to run here. Debuts in blinkers.

Dangers: Keep safe Star Witness gelding 2. Witness Me Run who debuts off two progressive trials; while Foxwedge filly 5. Abuela stuck on well at big odds here on debut.

How to play it: Bush Warrior to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Talented provincial filly 9. Pleading finally returns more than 10 months after hitting the line hard on debut in a good quality maiden at this track. Has been given plenty of time to get over some problems, and travelled nicely through the line in two progressive trials. Handles the ground and is the one to beat.

Dangers: Liked the recent trial of Whittington-sired 2. London Ruler behind the top selection, and he debuts at big odds with significant gear inclusions. Another one on debut, Makfi colt 1. Andorra La Vella also begins off some smart work at the trials, and draws the inside.

How to play it: Pleading to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Progressive provincial filly 5. Galaxy Belle can strike third-up out a little further in trip, with blinkers added. Worked home nicely behind a good galloper at Scone, and reacts on wet tracks.

Dangers: Improving three-year-old 10. Reach Beyond hasn't been far away in three runs this prep around similar trips, and looks well in at the weights coming back from a handy provincial maiden. Honest 2. Imperial Grey was ridden in front fourth-up at Scone, and boxed on okay. Is three weeks between runs for a little drop in distance, and gets some weight relief.

How to play it: Galaxy Belle to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Fortune will certainly favour the brave over this distance in the wet. Despite being asked to carry 3kg more, under-rated provincial mare 6. Kikikapow is breathing all over this deep into her prep. Was close-up in provincial company stepping up sharply to the 2600m journey on a Heavy 9, and from a nice draw with stronger rider going on, she can snap a drought that stretches back to her maiden win here in April last year.

Dangers: Tough wet track mare 2. Apache Belle drove through late to win a similar race at Port, but up a further 300m with a 2kg weight hike, might prove a leveller. Included in exotics improving 7. Zoomerango who draws the inside, and comes out of that same Gosford race as the top selection.

How to play it: Kikikapow to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

Lightly raced four-year-old 3. Mr Whitacre only missed by a head first-up for more than 10 months, and this looks a nice progression. Draws to find a sweet position on or near the speed, and while he hasn't raced on anything worse than Soft 6, has trialled okay in these sort of conditions, and certainly bred to get through it.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by three-year-old 1. Anselmo who didn't get around the tighter circuit at Gunnedah but previous two runs against better opposition when well in the market were good. Keep safe Sidestep three-year-old and stablemate to top selection 4. Steplee who is bred to relish this ground, and debuts off two quiet trials.

How to play it: Mr Whitacre to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Consistent provincial mare 4. Hard Faith is very well placed, coming back a little in distance 18 days between runs. Hasn't missed a place in her last four, and is unbeaten from two starts in heavy going.

Dangers: Capable six-year-old 1. Sausalito hit the line from well back to miss narrowly second-up, and extra trip is a natural plus under the same weight. Provincial mare 2. Bedtime Stories beat a useful BM 58 field here first-up. Normally holds form okay into the next run, but record on genuine heavy ground is poor.

How to play it: Hard Faith to win and quinella 1 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split

Toughest race of the day, with a stack of chances. Provincial filly 13. Loose Buttons will go around at big odds third-up, but the drop in weight and coming back in distance are huge plusses. Has enough speed early to get over from the gate, and only win so far came in heavy ground.

Dangers: Promising local three-year-old 4. Prince Akeem was very good winning his second start, despite drifting in betting and covering ground from the draw. Has been given four weeks since that run, and draws much closer in here. Big watch on metro three-year-old 5. Super Solar resuming off two quiet trials. Consistent five-year-old 15. Swordsman is at his best on wet tracks, and can go close fourth-up; while included in exotics 6. My Rose Kingdom third-up; and 9. Canford Mick getting back out to a more suitable distance second-up.

How to play it: Loose Buttons each way and first four 4,13/4,5,6,9,13,15/4,5,6,9,13,15/4,5,6,9,13,15. Odds and Evens: Split

Promising provincial three-year-old 2. Big Happiness has bolted in both starts here this prep, and primed to make it three straight. Steps up in class, but has superior potential and scope, and bred to thrive in wet ground.

Dangers: Gap to the rest headed by well-bred 6. Tupou who has won two of his last three and can run the quinella.

How to play it: Big Happiness to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 5. GALAXY BELLE
R4 6. KIKIKAPOW

BEST VALUE:
R7 13. LOOSE BUTTONS

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting