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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 6 & rail out 5m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away and True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

Emerging four-year-old 3. Open Pearly Gates was good on debut in a better Super Maiden at Dubbo, driving home to miss by a neck. Again draws to park just off the speed, and be strong late in more preferred soft ground.

Dangers: 12. Excellent Standard shapes as the clear threat if he can reproduce his fast-finishing effort on debut in a Dubbo maiden when well supported from a big price. Gets more ground here, with a superior jockey taking over. Gap to the rest, but watch for any money around 10. Blue Mountain Guy, an Epaulette three-year-old on debut and a stablemate of the former, starting behind two quiet trials. 5. Triumphant Return third-up over further is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Open Pearly Gates to win

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

Open race, with most of these just making up the numbers. Like home track mare 9. Missile Love resuming off an easy trial. Was only beaten by the winner in three consecutive runs last prep in deeper races, key gear changes have been made, and should thrive in the going being by top notch wet track sire and Doncaster winner Kermadec.

Dangers: 17. Toyager is also ultra consistent having not missed a place in three runs this prep, twice when leading and only run down late in provincial company. Tricky draw, but also right at home on soft ground. Keep safe 4. Major Lightning who debuts behind two even trials at this track; while provincial mare 3. Magnolia Jewel is a market watch resuming behind two forward trials.

How to play it: Missile Love to win

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (900m):

Lightly raced four-year-old 5. Don't Doubt Merlin resumes for only his third start crucially following a similar pattern after he won on debut over the same short course trip in early June. Was put away after being edged out in a BM 58 next run, but reportedly has come along nicely, and was good through the line winning a heavy track metro trial three weeks ago.

Dangers: 4. Willingale has been close up in two runs since returning off a month long break, and has a real liking for soft tracks. 6. Distant can improve third-up back in preferred soft going; while 2. Full Revolution third-up; and 3. Reluctance second-up, both with blinkers going on; are capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Don't Doubt Merlin to win

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):

Improving three-year-old 6. Oceanfront steps up sharply to the right distance at only his second start for a very good provincial-based trainer. Was just even to the line on debut at Newcastle, but this is weaker, and the winner of that race scored again in Midway CL1 company on Saturday.

Dangers: 1. Passalacqua is a progressive colt who has hit the line well behind the winner in his last two, although up sharply in weight. 3. Mad Harry with important gear changes after disappointing second-up at Dubbo can run into the money; while 9. Casdaemon heads the rest.

How to play it: Oceanfront to win

Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

Plenty of chances in this, but expecting 2. Supertrail to improve sharply second-up in a thinner affair, with the blinkers back on. Struck plenty of trouble when in a deeper Saturday provincial race and dropped out late, but this is more to his liking with a senior jockey taking over, and drawn to get a cosy run inside.

Dangers: 10. Best Of Maher is banging on the door for a second career win having placed all three starts this prep. Tackles a stronger race, but that is offset by a significant 4kg weight drop. Trained on the course, 4. Ollie's Secret also looms as a second-up improver; while both 8. Waitapu, down sharply in weight; and 9. Badboy McCoy up in grade; can run into the money.

How to play it: Supertrail to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):

Progressive metro mare 4. Media Frenzy is primed to break through after placing in three of her last four, twice at the provincials before storming home to miss narrowly in a Country Class 1. Bred to thrive in the going, and while she's drawn wide, that may be better ground with this course often serving up an outside bias on rain-affected ratings.

Dangers: Tough mare 1. Alice Mae is capable of going back-to-back coming back a fraction in distance 16 days after a strong closing win in provincial company. Keep very safe 3. Paris Lad third-up with blinkers replacing winkers; while 2. Bush Telegraph also gets blinkers added after making up plenty of late ground through traffic in two runs this prep. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Media Frenzy to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Underrated 6. Extreme Merger is both tough and bred to thrive in soft ground third-up. Flew home to win fresh before again making late ground in a handy CL2. Given four weeks since, and from a decent trailing draw, can run home hard again in what is now a weakened race.

Dangers: Improving 5. Edge Of Midnight comes off a strong second-up CL2 win here, but the handicapper hasn't missed him, rising 6kg to 61kg. Lightly raced 14. Russley Tiara reloads three weeks after a tough second-up maiden win. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Extreme Merger to win

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Open and tough sprint to finish, but lightly raced and promising filly 11. Ivy Diva can pick up where she left off last prep in only her third start. Hit the line late on debut before surging home in heavy ground to score at Scone. That form, and a smart soft track trial win here 12 days ago, augur well for this despite drawing wide.

Dangers: Big watch on 2. Midnight Dream second-up after charging home from a mile back to miss by a head at Dubbo in deeper grade. The market will tell a story with 4. Climate Control returning off a 12 week break without publicly trialling. Reliable and consistent weight carrier on rain-affected ground, but his fresh record is woeful. 7. Movin' Denman will relish an extra 100m after hitting the line late here first-up.

How to play it: Ivy Diva to win

BEST BETS:
R5 2. SUPERTRAIL
R8 11. IVY DIVA

BEST VALUE:
R6 4. MEDIA FRENZY

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting

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