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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 6 and rail true:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Progressive mare 10. Red Rags To Bulls is primed to open her account at the fifth attempt, with blinkers being added, slipping back to Malden company. Has been right there in all four runs so far beaten under a length each time, the latest rushing home in heavy ground at Scone against deeper CL1 opposition. Soft ground is a further plus, and after a 2kg claim, she's clearly the best placed in a set weights event.

Dangers: Had to like the way provincial mare 9. Lonhreel who hit the line late when resuming at Tamworth. Further out in the market, 7. Supercrisp can run into the minor money fourth-up coming through that same formline as the top selection; while 2. Dreymon heads the rest from a softer draw.

How to pay it: Red Rags To Bulls to win

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

Home track three-year-old 3. Withstand can peak at his third start over more ground. Hit the line late on debut here before again doing his best work late over a shorter trip when backed from $3.80 into $2.60. Desperate for this trip now, and can finish over his rivals in a race lacking depth.

Dangers: Expect a bold run from rival local 7. Magic Sorcerer who resumes off two progressive trials, with gear changes including winkers on for the first time. Keep safe 1. Steel Claws who ran home okay here into a place second-up, and a superior senior jockey takes over. Include in trifecta and first fours, 2. Dashing Vision improving second-up; and 4. Clan D'oro third-up.

How to play it: Withstand to win

Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

From the same home stable as the opening race, tough mare 8. Behind The Storm can cash in on a significant drop in class. Has twice been fair through the line in much tougher Highway fields at Randwick, but a drop back in trip and finding somewhat firmer going are keys to success. Will carry the minimum 55kg weight after the jockey's claim.

Dangers: Big watch on 4. Bertie who relishes rain-affected going, and shoots for three straight wins after finishing best from midfield in a country CL2. 5. Golden Honour won two straight in weaker company before a fair closing effort at Kempsey, but gets good weight relief for this deeper test. Evergreen local 2. Tough Case finally returned to the winner's stall surging home in heavy ground 15 days ago, although not as effective on soft and goes up 2kg for that win; while 7. Borrowed Luck down in grade is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Behind The Storm to win

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Confident progressive four-year-old 2. Here Comes Hogan can go one better third-up. Has been strong through the line in two runs this prep, and finds a thinner race on a suitably bigger track with a more experienced rider on board. The one to beat staying at the trip.

Dangers: Debatable whether the inside ground will assist early favourite and lightly raced 4. Viaconi off a month-long freshen-up, although only has to reproduce a solid closing effort in a metro Super Maiden last time to be right in the finish. Hard to see the winner coming from anywhere else, although watch for any money around Dubious filly 14. Skeptical on debut for the Annabel Neasham yard behind two trials; while 9. Lunaire can run a race first-up with gear changes for the new Scone stable off two trial wins.

How to play it: Here Comes Hogan to win

Race 5 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1280m):

Not much between the girls here, although there's value with still improving 2. Lady Soames who is gunning for a second win from her last three. Came off a six week break to cut loose from well back and claim a country BM 58 before doing her best work late again in a deeper CL3 when not getting the smoothest of runs. Suited on the bigger and wide stretch here, and this is her best trip, settling back and closing hard again.

Dangers: Lightly raced home tracker 5. Christa was good late when resuming in a handy CL3, although some query at the price coming back in distance six weeks between runs. Look for emerging 7. Hulu getting home late second-up, with her only win so far coming in soft ground. Big watch on 4. Oakfield Mamselle who is a renowned fresh performer for the Kris Lees stable, and gets a low draw behind two quiet trials. 1. Silver Halo dropping back from deeper provincial and city races, and with blinkers added, can pump further value into trifecta and first four returns.

How to play it: Lady Soames to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Emerging Scone filly 9. Dravid can go right on with the job after leading all the way on debut here a fortnight back through heavy going. Naturally mode depth in this, but there were some handy sprinters behind her that day.

Dangers: Improving mare 4. Not Written Off is a big market watch resuming off a 33 week break and two forward trials after swapping one Scone stable for another. Another one first-up, 3. Koga Ninja has trialled well, and normally comes to hand early in the prep. Include lightly raced 6. Aquafire at his fifth start in exotic plays. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Dravid to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1000m):

Plenty of chances in the closer headed clearly by 1. Outishka, who has tactical speed and can make it back-to-back wins third-up, extending an impressive strike rate. Boxed on for a long way after leading on a bog track when resuming before being ridden just off the speed and finishing best in a provincial BM 64. That win reads well for this over 100m further, and she thrives in soft going.

Dangers: Lightly raced and smart five-year-old 8. Last Frontier is the big threat resuming without blinkers off two impressive trials. Has won three from four so far, all at his Tamworth base, and the rise in grade means this is by far the lightest weight he's carried so far. Another one building a strong record is 11. Fill A Promise who shoots for a fifth straight win after leading all the way in heavy going at Quirindi four weeks ago. Include consistent 4. Sisters Pick who has won two of her last four and draws inside; and hard fit home tracker 6. Zakor in all exotic bets.

How to play it: Outishka to win

BEST BETS:
R2 3. WITHSTAND
R4 2. HERE COMES HOGAN

BEST VALUE:
R7 1. OUTISHKA

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting

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