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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 1200m to 300m into a Cut/Away & true the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

We start a strong and open meeting with the maidens, and this shapes nicely map and tempo for improving three-year-old 1. Roclind Lad second-up. Held his ground okay resuming in a very handy maiden, and the runner-up from that race was an impressive winner next start. Gets out to a more suitable trip here as well from a handy trailing draw.

Dangers: Hard fit 8. Priding has been in and around the money all prep, and is a natural threat dropping back from provincial level where he missed by a long neck a fortnight ago. Gap to the rest headed by progressive 10. The Coat Hanger who was swamped after leading first-up.

How to play it: Roclind Boy to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1450m):

Very little separates the leading chances here, although settled on resuming three-year-old 2. Melanin first-up for a strong metro stable off two very soft trials. Took on deeper opposition over further last prep.

Dangers: Similarly, keep a big market watch on 4. Penfold Park who resumes with gear changes behind two trials. Provincial mare 8. Little Bit Yours deep into the prep from a soft draw; and 9. Magic Prophet down sharply in weight third-up; can both run into the minor money.

How to play it: Melanin to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Back to the five furlongs on a bigger track is just the ticket for promising provincial three-year-old 2. Kissing Supido who finally broke through third-up. Has plenty of natural speed, and only needs to get over from the wider draw to be the clear one to beat. Was scratched from Mudgee on Sunday to be saved for this.

Dangers: From the inside draw third-up with the leading country jockey taking over, 4. Tennagain is a big threat. Has worked home okay in two runs back, but the blinkers coming off will greatly help him finish the race off stronger. Watch for any betting move with 1. Master Of Rewards resuming off a trial win at this track. Include both 5. Shreve second-up, and coming through that same race as Tennagain; and 8. Power Puff off a freshen-up; in trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Kissing Supido to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 4 2YO HCP (1000m):

The youngsters go over the sprint trip here, and keen to back Rubick-sired 6. Sir Remlap on debut. Was put away after two progressive provincial trials through autumn before again strong through the line in a recent trial here. Draws to stay out of trouble, and ready to rock.

Dangers: Big market watch on Zoustar filly 7. Penny For who returns for only her second start behind two trials, and gets a soft run. Keep safe another fresh runner in 4. Kelilah who swept home to win a country maiden on debut in mid March. Metro filly 12. Surprise Valley on debut for a leading stable; 14. Zippo Idea who also starts her career off a trial win at this track; and 15. Kickoff who improves into her third start; all go through wider exotic wagers.

How to play it: Sir Remlap to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Staying at the five furlongs in a race that should provide a strong tempo is right up the alley of metro three-year-old 3. Flying Birds fourth-up in his first full prep. Loved how he attacked the line at Hawkesbury when ridden quieter, and he again can settle well off the speed from a wide draw on a suitably long straight coming back to country level.

Dangers: Watch the market moves on debutant filly 7. A Shooting Duck who has trialled well in handy company. One over the odds is 1. Cycle Peak first up for nearly 10 weeks off a smart provincial trial win; while at bigger odds, 2. Cyclone Rupert resuming; and 14. Storm's End fourth-up; can both figure in the minor money.

How to play it: Flying Birds to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

A modest restricted sprint shapes well for 7. No Filter from a soft draw and with a key jockey change deep into her prep.

Dangers: Well travelled mare 6. Allay can fire fresh with a significant drop in weight after the junior rider's claim. Keep safe at bigger odds 3. Sebring's Rose first-up for 20 weeks with an important gear change; while 1. Nosey, who charged home late in a similar race at Armidale; is on the next line.

How to play it: No Filter to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1280m):

Another open and competitive contest for this grade of galloper, with many chances. Love the value around progressive Dubbo mare 7. Watch Me Rumble who is primed to win again third-up, with the regular jockey back aboard. Has hit the line from well back in two slightly deeper affairs this prep, and drawn to settle back and find the middle of the track here, can produce a superior final 400m burst.

Dangers: Tough 1. Big Happiness is knocking on the door for a fifth career win after surging home to miss by a neck when fourth-up, and draws to get plenty of cover. The market will tell a story with provincial visitor 2. Oakfield Prince who resumes for a leading stable behind two quiet trials, with the blinkers coming off; while stablemate 11. Elarski was given no hope from the back at Coffs, and better suited here with a far superior jockey taking over, and blinkers going on. Include 5. Royal Charge third-up; and 18. Hard to Dismiss fourth-up if he gets a run; in trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Watch Me Rumble each way
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 8 CLASS 3 HCP (1450m):

Plenty of chances in the closer as well headed by tough Dubbo six-year-old 1. Hit The Rim who hasn't won for a while, but is very well placed here deep into the prep. Has worked home from a long way back in three runs against generally better quality opposition, and from a softer draw with a senior rider taking over; he can finally land a fourth victory at big odds.

Dangers: Naturally, lightly raced four-year-old 2. Seahaven is the measuring stick first-up from the inside draw. Comes to hand quickly behind two trials, but wouldn't be diving into too short a price in this field; while 3. Titled Tycoon fifth-up; and 5. Rockbarton Roman, who won at CL2 level three runs back; can both run into the minor money. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Hit The Rim each way and quinella 1 and 2
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 2. KISSING SUPIDO
R4 6. SIR REMLAP

BEST VALUE:
R5 3. FLYING BIRDS

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Muswellbrook meeting

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