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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 6 and rail true:

Race 1 CLASS 3 HCP (1450m):

We start the feature Gold Cup meeting with a good class contest on a track that should continue to improve back into soft range. Was very impressed with the second-up win of progressive mare 3. Empress Zou at Coffs when sustaining a strong finishing burst from well back in BM 66 grade. A little more depth here, but the small distance rise and soft rating are both right up her alley, and the top country jockey takes over.

Dangers: Improving 2. Rhythm Is A Dancer put three wins together up to country BM 58 grade before scratched at the barrier last time. Kept up to the mark with an easy trial, and in well at the weights after the jockey's claim. Keep safe 5. What A Peach third-up, and one of three accepted Scott Singleton-trained runners; while stablemate 4. Remorseless heads the rest fourth-up from the inside draw.

How to play it: Empress Zou to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

The wrap on debutant Mikki Isle-sired three-year-old 2. Florino is big enough to see him make an instant statement here. Was strong through the line in a recent provincial heavy track trial, and the Messara/Bullock combination is on show again. Scratched from Newcastle on Thursday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Improving 4. Leica Storm can threaten second-up over more ground, and carting 1kg less; while 7. Jody Girl from a soft trailing draw; and 8. Bit Of A Step with winkers added; can both put value into exotic plays.

How to play it: Florino to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Plenty of chances here, and early positions will be critical. Like progressive three-year-old 3. Exonumia to go back-to-back after tracking the speed and finishing best to claim his maiden second-up at Scone. Stays at the journey, and looms as the superior wet tracker in the race.

Dangers: Right on the top selection's heels is 4. Devil's Inn who hit the line hard second-up after being ridden quieter, and even better suited getting to the bigger circuit. The market will tell a story with Fastnet Rock three-year-old 6. Thorpe who resumes as a gelding off a near 12-month spell for the Annabel Neasham stable. Won on debut that day as a two-year-old in Qld. Honest 1. River Rocket with a 3kg claimer off-setting the big weight; and at bigger odds 8. Stormy Pluck who is hard fit; are both capable of fighting for minor money.

How to play it: Exonumia to win and box exacta 3,4,6
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Take Two in this grade, and it shapes far more cut and dried, with lightly raced provincial mare 3. Takara Star all set to make it two straight at the track fourth-up in her first full prep, despite drawing the outside gate. Worked over to sit just off the leader here three weeks ago before sailing home with plenty in hand. Had previously come through a strong provincial Midway formline, and this is far from deep.

Dangers: Keep safe metro three-year-old 1. Midori Fuji who resumes off two quiet trials, and has plenty of ability on his day; while 6. Smart Shot back on preferred soft ground; and 8. Successful from a soft draw; both fourth-up; head the rest.

How to play it: Takara Star to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 WAYNE HARRIS OPEN HCP (1280m):

Open and competitive market, although can't go past talented and sparingly raced five-year-old 8. Ceasefire second-up. Was stiff not to win first-up when hitting the line late under 61kg in a country BM 68, and dropping right down to the 55kg limit here for this tougher test a month between runs over a touch more ground is ideal.

Dangers: Expect market support for improving 4. Damaged who hit the line from well back second-up in metro BM 72 company, and should relish this bigger and longer straight. Gap to the rest headed by 13. Border Control who has been in and around the money for most of this prep, and finished well in a Midway BM 72 for older gallopers 20 days ago; while 3. Confessed resuming behind two trials can sneak into the minor money.

How to play it: Ceasefire to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 6 SKELLATAR SPRINT (1000m):

Now for the feature sprint which is generally a strong form race. Among a few chances, smart five-year-old 3. Ice In Vancouver can hit the ground running first-up since early spring. Was ultra competitive up to BM 90 metro company last prep, and proved he's ready to roar again bolting in a recent Tamwoerth trial in good time. Has a 45 percent win rate from just 14 starts, and 60 percent success on soft ground.

Dangers: Naturally, speedy mare 5. Tucson Valley fourth-up and back from BM 72 city company, is a clear threat; while including 2. Burning Crown fresh with gear changes; and 4. Miss Jay Fox also first-up off two eye-catching trials; across exotic plays.

How to play it: Ice In Vancouver to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 MUSWELLBROOK GOLD CUP (1500m):

The feature Gold Cup, with Big Dance eligibility up for grabs, serves up plenty of value, but none better placed than metro-based five-year-old 2. Sibaaq third-up and dropping back from Group 2 Saturday company where he found the line well over the same trip. Was placed in three straight runs last spring up to 1800m, including the feature Big Dance and Five Diamonds, and blinkers going on is a further boost. Draws to get a nice trail around midfield, and handles all conditions.

Dangers: Big watch on high class six-year-old 4. Hosier resuming from the inside draw behind two trials. Won the Coffs Cup and a metro BM 88 in succession last prep, and has a smart fresh record. Last start mid-week BM 78 winner 10. Journalism reads over the odds, dropping down to the 54kg limit; while 1. Gem Song second-up via a quiet trial is well capable of running into the money.

How to play it: Sibaaq each way
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):

Likely most open race of the day to finish. Keen to ride home over this sprint trip with 4. Restrictions crucially back a furlong in trip third-up. Came off a year long break after departing Hong Kong to lead all the way at Wyong before being found wanting over 1200m. Has the early speed to get across from the gate, and will give a tremendous sight in what is a thin race.

Dangers: Big watch on talented Outreach provincial four-year-old 1. Uzziah resuming behind two trials; while 3. Clifton Springs also first-up with gear changes; and 7. Small Town third-up; are best of the rest.

How to play it: Restrictions to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 3. EMPRESS ZOU
R4 3. TAKARA STAR

BEST VALUE:
R7 2. SIBAAQ

All the entries, form and replays for Friday's Muswellbrook Cup meeting

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