By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail True:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): |
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We start the country meeting with a big field of maiden sprinters on a track that will continue firming up and may even get back near a Good 4. Improving filly 7. Himorher did more than enough closing off well on debut in a better race. Was a dominant trial winner prior, and stays at the trip and weight here for a leading trainer/jockey combination.
Dangers: Expecting a much better run from Caravaggio filly 8. Samita who did it tough from the draw in slicker company on debut. Watch the betting on debutant American Pharoah filly 12. Villa Treville who has been given five weeks since a narrow trial win; while at a big price 2. Rembroy on debut from a nice draw; and provincial mare 5. Cateechee fifth-up; are both capable of getting into the minor money.
How to play it: Himhorher to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m): |
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Like consistent four-year-old 1. Dimension who rarely runs a bad one, and comes back in class. Swept home as a hot favorite to win a thinner race two starts back before just fair in tougher grade 15 days ago, although was in the slower part of the track.
Dangers: With two wins from his last three in weaker company, 4. Cherry Blue shapes a shade over the odds here with a 2g claim; while both 5. Capaldi who came from a mile back to win a weaker race over further at Mudgee; and honest mare 9. Sunchaser, who is also deep into the current campaign and jumping from the inside barrier; can add plenty of value into exotic bets.
How to play it: Dimension to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m): |
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It doesn't get any easier in this maiden, with little separating the main chances. If ever one is ready to break through, it's capable mare 14. Miss Chapeau third-up. Did her best work late when resuming before being ridden upside down from the front last start and didn't finish. Much better when she settles well off the speed, and winkers replacing blinkers is a significant gear adjustment.
Dangers: The same can be said for another mare, 13. Lago's Daughter who finished off okay resuming, although that is shaping as a weak form race. Has a 50 percent strike rate in the placings from 12 starts, and the more the track dries out, the better she is. Right on their heels is improving 3. Jukebox Edition who draws to get a soft run, and has finished close-up in her last two. Gap to the rest headed by 8. Zoucan Toucan racing without winkers for the first time.
How to play it: Miss Chapeau to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2050m): |
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Keen on underrated six-year-old 6. Harwok'n'zoff who is hard fit and has placed in his last two. Will relish getting over more ground, and the stablemate coming out in a weakened race is a solid form pointer.
Dangers: Keep safe 7. Loves Rules who has disappointed this prep, but will find this a little easier jumping from the inside draw. Both 8. Rubiland up in weight after charging home to beat the top selection last start at double figure odds; and 11. Spoke To Rajiv from a soft draw; can run into the money.
How to play it: Harwok'n'zoff to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1400m): |
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The early speed map and tactics will play a big role in this, with some of the better fancies drawn wide. Improving three-year-old 2. Flying Miracle can peak fifth-up here over a bit further. Improved sharply last start, and his form earlier in the prep was good on firm ground. Just needs to tuck in from the tricky barrier, but the more the sun shines, the bigger his claim. Over the odds.
Dangers: Little or no doub progressive 8. Vis I Do is the most talented runner in the field after motoring home to just miss in a better maiden second-up, but he'll need the early breaks drawn even wider. Must keep safe 6. Rupert's Boy resuming for a second prep off a forward trial; while 10. Ravalawa is the best of the rest dropping in weight fourth-up.
How to play it: Flying Miracle each way
Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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Back to the sprint trip, and this stacks up ideally for speedy four-year-old 4. Shikanic who returns for his first run in 19 weeks. Hasn't publicly trialled, but has a smart fresh record and will come to hand around a suitable smaller track.
Dangers: Big watch on 1. Clifton Springs who draws the fence, and has been campaigning okay against much tougher opposition all prep, and big weight off-set by a 4kg claim. Another one resuming, 9. Dolly Jayne returns with a stack of gear changes, including blinkers back on, and has trialled okay. Resuming ex-Victorian filly 3. Cannoli, having her first NSW run for leading country trainer Cody Morgan, can run into the money.
How to play it: Shikanic to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m): |
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One of the toughest and widest races on the program, but no greater value than improving five-year-old 14. Oh No Bro who can pounce here fourth-up. Has charged home late from near last in his last two, and while this is a level higher, he carries 4kg less, and can settle a little closer back up in distance.
Dangers: Must include progressive three-year-old 9. Smart Shot also fourth-up after doing his best work late in a deeper BM 58 at Muswellbrook. Tough 1. I'm On Break was strong through the line resuming, and while he normally comes off a peg second-up, is still over the odds after the claim. Include in all exotics, 2. River Rocket who draws the inside with a 2kg claim; and last start winner 20. Flying Pretty who steps up from a weaker class.
How to play it: Oh No Bro each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1250m): |
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Very keen on lightly raced provincial filly 7. Akauwheo who resumes for a second prep behind two trials. Came to hand quickly in handy company last spring, and she has more than a touch of quality against a fairly thin lot.
Dangers: Keep safe 1. Ever Bella who is very fit with blinkers back on, and ran home okay in the tougher Jardel Cup at Tamworth. Watch the betting on resuming ex-Victorian 3. Untouchable Ed at his first run for the new Tamworth stable, but has to overcome a tough draw.
How to play it: Akauwheo to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R6 4. SHIKANIC
R8 7. AKAUWHEO
BEST VALUE:
R7 14. OH NO BRO
All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Gunnedah meeting