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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Wednesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail True

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

The maiden sprinters get us started, and it's hard to see promising three-year-old 7. Divine Courage being beaten from this draw. Was well supported at double figure odds before charging home to miss narrowly in a stronger race at the Gold Coast, and the Divine Prophet stock are going very well.

Dangers: Another one on the improve 8. Hardley Grey held on well first-up; while big watch on four-year-old 1. Grey Enuff on debut off a handy trial, with a 3kg claim.

How to play it: Divine Courage to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Speed should be okay in this. Consistent and tough four-year-old 1. Rose Bouquet rarely runs a bad one, and is primed to break a long wait for a third career win. Has only missed a place once in her last five, and not badly treated at the weights after rider's 1.5kg allowance.

Dangers: Must respect five-year-old 2. Rahaan who bolted in a similar race here two weeks back, although best form is on wetter tracks. Four-year-old 6. Above The Lot improved sharply fourth-up, and has a nice trailing draw; while five-year-old 3. Electric Miss is also capable of running into a place.

How to play it: Rose Bouquet to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1700m):

Home track mare 8. Shukkas is hard fit and gets a nice run from the inside draw, with a crucial gear change.

Dangers: Expecting a much better run on a firmer track from four-year-old 1. Gaslighter who was poor here two weeks back; while 4. Hichaux is still searching for that breakthrough win ahead of his 30th start.

How to play it: Shukkas to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2200m):

Progressive five-year-old 1. Bold Contender is bursting to win one having charged home in his last couple. Will likely settle further back from the wider draw, but over this longer trip has the superior closing 600m.

Dangers: Gold Coast mare 5. Dunara has been edging out in distance all prep, and can strike here fifth-up. Draws to get a trail just off the speed, and be strong late. Gap to the rest headed by underrated mare 4. Creme De Vin who drops in grade from the inside draw.

How to play it: Bold Contender to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1400m):

Very keen on consistent four-year-old 7. Deliberation who goes forward, and has won two of his last four either leading or stalking the speed. Again drawn to get an ideal run on pace, and drops in weight for this higher grade.

Dangers: Progresssive five-year-old 4. Franklin Corners has powered home from just off the speed to win his last two, although more depth here. Big gap to the rest.

How to play it: Deliberation to win and quinella 4 and 7. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

One of the tougher races on the card that should be dominated by three-year-old fillies. Like the value around Gold Coast-based Winning Rupert-sired 12. White House Girl who debuts in blinkers off three improving trials, winning the latest.

Dangers: Also resuming off a lengthy break, Better Than Ready-sired 7. Coco Rox was well forward in a recent trial, and drew to get a nice trail. Improving 10. Miss Miraculous was given little or no peace in front on debut here two weeks back when heavily fancied. Fitter, and with that experience, she can give another big sight. Watch the betting on 11. Super Dooper who debuts off two progressive trials from a low draw. Included in exotics 13. Wonderwhen third-up.

How to play it: White House Girl each way and trifecta 7,10,12/7,10,11,12,13/7,10,11,12,13. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 JACARANDA CUP (1100m):

Feature battle of the day should see good speed on all the way, and that augurs well for ultra smart home track mare 2. Tara Jasmine who is in the best form of her career. Has sailed home from well off the speed to win three of her last four in almost effortless fashion, and again only needs a clear pathway from the 400m.

Dangers: Capable mare 4. Zac Attack did her best work late resuming behind the top selection in the Jacaranda Prelude after getting a long way back. Will need to hold her position better from the inside barrier, but she can also peel off a big final sprint. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Pride Of Pyingerra and 6. Bel Academy who are included in wider exotics.

How to play it: Tara Jasmine to win and quinella 2 and 4. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1175m):

Moderate affair to finish looks the domain of emerging three-year-old 4. Thunder Moon who led all the way comfortably on debut, and draws to repeat the dose from the inside gate.

Dangers: Both locals 2. In Fiore and 3. Old Timing Man should be running into the finish; while at bigger odds 1. Harnova can peak fifth up with a 3kg claim.

How to play it: Thunder Moon to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R4 1. BOLD CONTENDER
R8 4. THUNDER MOON

BEST VALUE:
R6 12. WHITE HOUSE GIRL

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Ballina meeting

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