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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 3m

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1006m):

We start with the maiden sprinters. Bel Esprit three-year-old 3. Bow is bred to fly, and has impressed at the trials for a Coffs stable who likes to get them ready.

Dangers: Watch the betting on Territories filly 10. Star Of The North who debuts behind a forward trial with a claim; while 7. Sherriff Cody resumes and goes into exotics.

How to play it: Bow to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 OPEN HCP (1181m):

Always fiercely contested battles for the more experienced sprinters. Keen on consistent five-year-old mare 1. Zac Attack fresh, despite not officially trialing. Hasn't started since a good closing run behind a star country sprinter in early November, but comes to hand quickly and draws well.

Dangers: Coffs mare 3. Northern Wilderose second-up over a bit more ground from a soft draw. Expect progressive local three-year-old 8. Andy to be getting home second-up down sharply in weight jumping from his own age in metropolitan company to open country class.

How to play it: Zac Attack to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1410m):

The market will have a strong say here on the top two saddlecloths, but going with lightly raced Gold Coast four-year-old 2. Who Loves To Dance who was very good closing off late first-up, despite having to stop and start a couple of times in a muddling run affair, and there was a big gap back to third. Already a proven weight carrier, and the bigger track is key.

Dangers: Talented four-year-old 1. Allora Enzo is bursting to break through and gets blinkers added. Has only missed a place once in six starts, including going under narrowly as a hot favorite at the Sunshine Coast nine days ago, but will still have a task carrying 61.5kg from a wide draw. Gap to the rest headed by honest local 4. Seaczar fourth-up.

How to play it: Who Loves To Dance to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1410m):

Open and modest affair for a Heat of the Rising Star. Like home track four-year-old 7. Ultimate Man after hitting the line late resuming here in a similar grade. Drawn out, but carries 1.5kg less after the claim, and generally at his best second-up.

Dangers: Improving seven-year-old 2. Delete is a fast-finishing threat fourth-up, and can settle a little closer from a better gate. Keep safe too Taree mare 4. But I Know who drops in grade after doing her best work late first-up off a long spell. Include 1. Edge Of Darkness who comes back a notch in class, and won third-up last prep; while both 8. Flying Pretty and 11. King Farouk will settle back, but capable of running home into a place.

How to play it: Ultimate Man to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1710m):

A maiden lacking quality. Improving four-year-old 6. Royal Sky can reboot strong fourth-up after being beaten a long way into a place at Ballina when forced a long way back from the gate. Sits much closer this time over more ground, and ready to break through.

Dangers: Honest stablemate 2. Daedalus has been in and around the money over a long and drawn out prep. Went close at Lismore 16 days ago, and is looking for this extra journey now. Gap to the rest headed by improving three-year-old 11. Vandini who will find this easier at his third start; while 14. Door Into Summer third-up; and 9. Consento who is fit; can both contest the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Royal Sky to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2200m):

A trying and open staying affair, with most on show having very plain records. Tough mare 8. Anatolian Charm has been working to the line okay this prep in races with more depth, and from a good trailing draw, she's well and truly over the odds.

Dangers: Gold Coast mare 7. Hayate is desperate for this trip now after working home in her last couple, and draws to get a soft run. Honest five-year-old 1. Helmet Head shoots up sharply to 59kg, but this is the weakest race he's contested since late spring, and just needs to find early cover. Age hasn't stopped nine-year-old 5. Kilmarnock who snuck completely under the market radar to win a similar race here at huge odds nine days ago. Keep safe improving 9. Go Ferrando third-up; while 3. Fior The Tiger was run over by Kilmarnock, but previous form was sound, and he can be ridden quieter from the wider barrier.

How to play it: Anatolian Charm each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES CLASS 1 HCP (1181m):

Back to a sprint journey for the boys, and keen on local five-year-old 1. Hidden Trust who was dominant first-up after stalking the speed, and this isn't much tougher although has drawn the outside barrier.

Dangers: Keep safe improving three-year-old 3. Hot Profit fifth-up; while 5. Taikun Tommy hit the line late first-up in a handy Class 1.

How to play it: Hidden Trust to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 FILLIES & MARES CLASS 1 HCP (1181m):

The girls' edition wraps up the meeting, and it shapes well for honest five-year-old 5. Sailing who can peak second-up. Was heavily backed working home into a place in that same race as our previous top selection, and a much stronger and superior rider takes control.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by new stablemate four-year-old 1. Martini Special who is fifth-up and having her first run for the new Ballina yard after a quick switch from Victoria. Took on much deeper opposition late last year; while 3. Shirazzle third-up is the clear best of the rest.

How to play it: Sailing to win and quinella 1 and 5. Odds and Evens: Odds

BEST BETS:
R2 1. ZAC ATTACK
R5 6. ROYAL SKY

BEST VALUE:
R6 8. ANATOLIAN CHARM

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Grafton meeting

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