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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 5m from 800m to 400m & 3m the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1710m)

Tactical middle distance battle for the maidens to start. Improving filly 3. Bright The Sun has run home okay in two starts back from a break, and can peak getting to this longer trip, settling closer to the speed from a soft draw.

Dangers: Qld colt 1. King's Warrior held his ground fairly when resuming in a similar race over the border, and while fitter now with blinkers on for the first time, is still under the odds from a tricky gate. Both 7. Magic Sorcerer and 8. Moon Treaty are hard fit well into the prep, and down 1.5kg in weight coming through the same Armidale race.

How to play it: Bright The Sun to win

Race 2 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2270m)

Rare do we see this grade of galloper competing over a staying journey, but it stacks up ideally for Gold Coast-based five-year-old 2. The Irish who finds a thinner race fourth-up. Hit the line strongly from well back in consecutive BM 64s at Eagle Farm before again doing his best work late when pushed out to an even longer trip. Carries only 1kg more in weaker company, and a little drop back in distance is nicely off-set given 20 days between runs. The one to beat.

Dangers: Keep safe 1. Zaynudin, who charged home to win a weaker grade over further third-up, and also served well for this lesser trip, with three weeks between runs. 4. Giddy Gan's Joy hadn't finished further back than second in three strong closing runs before failing to run home in a deeper race at Doomben. Gap to the rest headed by 9. Italian Tune who adds value into the first four plays.

How to play it: The Irish to win

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1006m)

Tricky maiden sprint with a few chances. Overshare three-year-old 8. Olivershare can strike on debut from the inside draw. Trialled well enough over the border on a Soft 7, and has been working well either side.

Dangers: Lightly raced 7. Neil returns for just his second start since failing as a two-year-old on debut at Doomben in early winter. Won the second of two lead-up trials over the border. Stablemate 13. Lucky Neko was beaten under a length first-up in heavy ground. Watch the betting on lightly raced and ex-Qld four-year-old 3. Prince Of Prophets resuming behind a narrow trial win for the new Coffs stable; while 6. Church Rock second-up goes in wider exotic plays.

How to play it: Olivershare to win

Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1006m)

Not much between the leading contenders here, but settled on improving Gold Coast filly 9. Indubitably who is well placed to pounce second-up. Won her maiden easily at third start over the border before outclassed in tougher two-year-old company at Doomben, then spelling. Sat off the speed and ran home well to be beaten a long head fresh at Beaudesert in a deeper class first-up, and a more experienced and stronger jockey goes on here.

Dangers: Must keep safe 7. Thrownunderthebus who is shooting for two wins from her last three, down in weight, and can position up right behind the speed from a low draw. The market will tell a big story with lightly raced and Gold Coast-based 1. Darkley, resuming off a 16-month spell and recent trial. Over the odds is 4. Laser Beam reloading off a four week break and coming back in distance; while dominant first-up maiden winner 8. Got The Smarts can also run into minor money.

How to play it: Indubitably to win

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1410m)

Lightly raced and progressive filly 13. Chillcuz can break through at her second start for the Gold Coast arm of the Kris Lees stable. Liked the way she attacked the line when finally clear on debut at Kempsey, and even better placed here, drawn further out where she'll get more room to balance and finish off. The drying track is a further plus.

Dangers: Emerging 4. Pierre Cardinnigan showed on debut he could easily be the most talented runner in this race charging home to miss by a neck after being backed from $3.30 into $2.90. But over more ground and drawn right off the track, he's under the odds. Conversely well over the mark is 2. Caracoron who worked home okay first-up here in a handy maiden over the same trip. 5. Risk For Rewards gets a soft run inside, but needs to improve; while 10. Kobaytera peaks fourth-up over more ground.

How to play it: Chillcuz to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1410m)

Another one from the strong Matthew Dunn stable, improving three-year-old 4. Saxinoue is the one to beat second-up over more ground, with blinkers added. Bolted in from off speed at her second start back in early June befores spelling, then failing to attack the line after tracking the speed here fresh. Bred to get much further, and this is a far better distance to show his wares, settling a few lengths off the pace.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for consistent 2. Stoinka who is versatile from any draw, and hasn't finished further back than third in his last five stretching back to July. 3. Hardley Grey has been up for a while, but placed in three of his last four, and continues to hit the line. 1. Draft Day who drops in grade; 7. I Am Convincing fourth-up from a let-up; and 8. The Coat Hanger coming off a third-up win in a weaker race; all go through wider exotics.

How to play it: Saxinoue to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1410m)

Same grade and trip here, and an unfashionable mare at huge odds can cause an upset fifth-up from a better draw. 10. Revontulet has done next to nothing in four runs this prep; but her latest run while beaten seven lengths came in a deeper line-up, and was run in record time. Better suited against this lot, and drawn to park a little closer in the run, she can turn things around abruptly, and claim a third career win.

Dangers: Progressive mare 7. Ellro is hunting two straight wins this campaign after finishing best to claim a Super Maiden here 19 days ago. Locally trained 1. Silver Canvas is as honest as they come. Only beaten a long neck in similar company here three weeks back, and draws to get a softer run this time. 2. Mychyna represents each way value getting to this trip third-up; while sparingly raced 4. Salamancas has been freshened via a trial; and 8. Icon Of Style drops sharply in weight for the jump in grade.

How to play it: Revontulet each way

Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1610m)

A moderate and wide open battle, with naturally many chances headed by progressive 1. Second Sun who is tracking to peak third-up. Carried 60kg to claim his maiden over the border before spelling, then returned with two strong closing efforts in deeper fields at Doomben. That form reads well for this, staying over the trip.

Dangers: 6. Desert Mint is drawn in the car park fourth-up, but has enough tactical speed to get across, and is the best weighted runner after the claim. Over the odds is 7. True Fairy desperate for more ground second-up; while consistent 11. Maple Door stepping up from a CL2 win over the border, 15. Three Graces given five weeks since winning her maiden here; and 19. Rothsay's Ruby if she gets a run; are all capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Second Sun to win

Race 9 BENCHMARK 82 HCP (1206m)

A higher graded sprint closes the meeting, and it stacks up well at the value for 3. Single Touch who has never raced better, and shoots for a third consecutive win up a little in distance. Worked home into the places twice before being ridden quieter and charging home to claim the Jacaranda Cup Preview here, then complete that Cup double, sitting closer and driving home late. Back up in weight, but rock hard fit and has a 40 percent winning strike rate from eight starts at this track.

Dangers: 8. Preemptory can naturally improve sharply second-up after trailing them home in the Jacaranda Cup as a well backed favorite. Keep safe capable mare 9. Strapparsi back a shade in distance deep into the prep; while 4. Maximum Vortex and 13. Critical Time both improving second-up; head the rest.

How to play it: Single Touch to win

BEST BETS:
R4 9. INDUBITABLY
R5 13. CHILLCUZ

BEST VALUE:
R3 8. OLIVERSHARE

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Grafton meeting

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