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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track improving to Good 4 and rail out 4.5m from 1200m to WP & True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1720m):

Middle distance affair for the maidens to get us underway on a surface drying out all the time. A little drop in grade over a significantly longer journey augurs well for progressive Gold Coast three-year-old 10. Singer Sargent who is ready to win third-up. Has attacked the line late in two Qld runs to announce his career, and settling back from the wider draw, he can unleash on a suitably bigger track.

Dangers: Honest 2. Consensio prefers dry ground, and has beaten all bar the winner here in his last two.

How to play it: Singer Sargent to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 2 OPEN HCP (1420m):

Capable six-year-old 1. Aheadofhistime is suited getting back over more ground here after not having a lot of luck finishing from well back in the Jacaranda Cup 16 days ago. Not badly treated after the rider's claim, and had finished well in some stronger form races earlier in the prep.

Dangers: Last start Gold Coast winner 2. Lasting Kiss is a clear threat from a good trailing draw. Big market watch on 5. Pepper's Ghost second-up after charging home late in metropolitan company, first run for the new Ballina stable since switching from Victoria. Placed in his last three, 3. See It Thru draws to get a charmed run just behind the speed; while improving 7. Kingstar Bullet is over the odds second-up from a nice cover draw.

How to play it: Aheadofhistime each way and trifecta 1,2,5/1,2,3,5,7/1,2,3,5,7
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1115m):

Improving mare 3. Ausbred Yahoo hit the line well first-up over an unsuitably much shorter dash, and is primed here in a race that's lost any quality.

Dangers: Keep safe honest mare 10. Not Taking It who has been up for a long time, but draws to get a soft run; while 1. Tyrol resumes in blinkers from a handy draw.

How to play it: Ausbred Yahoo to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1115m):

Very tricky sprint. Locally-trained mare 5. Miss Daurian can finally break through fifth-up behind a sharp drop in weight. Was collared after leading here last time, but facing a little less depth this time.

Dangers: Home track five-year-old 1. Noble Mission has beaten all but the winner in two runs back from a long lay-off, ridden on speed or from midfield. Bursting to break through third-up but still threatens to jump under the odds given he concedes 4kg to the top selection. Watch the betting on 6. Allay who resumes for a strong country yard without any official trials. Another one resuming without publicly trialling, 9. Khumbu is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Miss Daurian to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2200m):

Plenty of chances in this modest battle for the restricted stayers. No reason why improving four-year-old 2. Gulf Of Tomini can't make it two straight wins a month between runs. Appreciated finally starting on firm footing when surging home to beat a similar field here last time, and has been kept up to the mark with a quiet recent trial.

Dangers: Lucas Cranach five-year-old 3. Lucamour won a weak BM 65 over the border nine days ago, although poorly weighted carrying 6kg more here. Honest mare 6. Electric Miss has more to offer than her winning strike rate from 39 starts says, and should find a handy trail just off the speed. Hard to believe 9. The Houseman has won only once from 29 attempts, but he's shown steady improvement right through this prep, and gets down to his lightest weight since mid September.

How to play it: Gulf Of Tomini to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1420m):

One of the more wider and tougher races on the card, and given most are still early in their first prep, the betting should have a big say. Bull Point filly 13. Pointillism almost got under the market's guard on debut, rattling home at big odds to finish less than a length from the winner. Steps out in distance carrying 1kg less from the same wider barrier, and importantly with blinkers being added, are all ingredients for a winning recipe.

Dangers: Drawn even further out, progressive Vancouver filly 14. Vandaceous will also look to settle back and finish hard after hitting the line second-up. Big watch at odds on 12. Light Of Dubai who gets a stack of gear adjustments third-up, including the addition of blinkers and pacifiers. The rest are passengers.

How to play it: Pointillism to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 3 HCP (1420m):

Any number of chances lining up in this one. Like the value about Dissident mare 8. Squeeze Dis who has won two of her last three in Qld by settling back and charging over the top. This is a bit tougher, but she draws to get ideal cover one off the fence around midfield, and produce a superior closing sprint. Two of her three career wins have come on firm ground.

Dangers: Progressive mare 5. Byron Eyes is drawn to make it three straight on her preferred firm surface. Underrated 3. Scorpius can figure second-up over further and back on top of the ground after working home well fresh. Tough five-year-old 6. Four Egos rarely runs a bad one, digging in hard to win a CL2 here two starts ago. More depth and quality in this, but he does get handy weight relief; while 1. Look A'like goes in exotics.

How to play it: Squeeze Dis each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1215m):

Back down in class we go, and from an ideal draw tracking the speed, emerging filly 10. Maroon Magic can repeat the dose after scoring on debut here as a short-priced favourite 16 days ago.

Dangers: Still they strive for that long-awaited second career win with tough mare 13. Continuum ahead of her 40th start. She has played the "bridesmaid" in six of her last seven runs stretching back to early September, and has 17 overall career placings. Draws to roll forward again and park right behind the speed, and one thing seems clear, she never gets sick of racing. Keep safe 1. Bow second-up after finishing well fresh when blowing the start. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Maroon Magic to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 9 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1720m):

A wide and open closer as well, but sets up okay for hard fit six-year-old 3. I Shot The Sheriff to make it two straight. Had been mixing his form on mainly rain-affected ground for most of the prep before sweeping home on firmer footing to win a similar graded race 11 days ago. Ready for the extra journey.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by honest 1. Full Press who has a good record at the track, and draws to find a decent trail off the speed. Watch on 10. Seething Seb who draws to get a cosy run inside, although up in quality after consecutive wins in weaker grades.

How to play it: I Shot The Sheriff to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

BEST BETS:
R6 13. POINTILLISM
R8 10. MAROON MAGIC

BEST VALUE:
R2 1. AHEADOFHISTIME

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Grafton meeting

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