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Neil Evans' Tips For Goulburn (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 7 and rail out 8m

Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2150m):

Plenty here who like to go forward, and that augurs well for five-year-old import 2. New World Tapestry who can park in behind from a soft draw, and run over the top of this lot. Has shown steady improvement in three runs here in much tougher grades, and only needs a clear run from the top of the straight.

Dangers: Improving mare 3. Outlook is the immediate threat up in distance second-up; while 8. So Incisive can drive into the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: New World Tapestry to win and trifecta (in order) 2,3,8. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Back to the mile in an open albeit weak affair. Like the value around four-year-old 3. Tip Top Timing who's been competitive enough across smarter provincial fields, and has an edge back on rain-affected going.

Dangers: Metro mare 7. Waihora Jewel can peak third-up out to the mile after working home nicely in consecutive CL1s. Like most in this field, 4. Butch'n'bugs is honest, and comes back from a midfield finish in a much stronger provincial BM 64. Metro five-year-old 2. Rodrick's Secret worked home okay in a handy CL2 when dropping back sharply in trip, although poorly weighted under 61kg staying at the distance; while 9. St Anton goes in wider exotics.

How to play it: Tip Top Timing each way and box exacta 3,4,7. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Talented metro mare 6. Songbird Serenade can resume with a bang. Came to hand quickly early enough in her first prep winning over a mile, and has been fitted with two trials, importantly up to 1200m.

Dangers: Another one returning off a lengthy break and two trials, 3. Think Straight will be running home strong, and looms as the quinella runner.

How to play it: Songbird Serenade each way and quinella 3 and 6. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Moderate but testing maiden with a few hopes. Improving filly 9. Mistaken Identity is ready to win third-up back on a bigger track, and with blinkers coming off. Hit the line hard at Nowra, and will come in several places from the wider draw after scratchings.

Dangers: Progressive filly 10. Allande did her best work late on debut, although may need one more run before peaking. Expect sharp improvement from 8. Jac's Legacy third-up after finishing unplaced as a hot favorite at Orange; while watching the betting on Sebring three-year-old 6. Willinga Stirling on debut behind two recent trials.

How to play it: Mistaken Identity to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):

Like metro mare 3. Silver Scissors who can strike fourth-up in a suitable race after working home hard in a deeper provincial maiden. Was easy in betting that day, but has always shown plenty of ability in work.

Dangers: Improving filly 6. Festival Dancer will appreciate getting on to a bigger circuit after hitting the line late in his last couple; while 2. Who Loves To Dance is best of the rest second-up.

How to play it: Silver Scissors to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

This shapes as the pure domain of talented provincial three-year-old 9. Verbek who missed by a whisker resuming in a better race, and dropping 3kg from that effort makes him one of the better weighted runners of the meeting. Was ultra competitive attacking the line in much stronger company across his first prep, and trainer has removed the blinkers.

Dangers: Doubt there are any, but improving four-year-old 1. Spats Pav Bowie made an encouraging debut at big odds.

How to play it: Verbek to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Good speed here sets up nicely for lightly raced Canberra mare 7. Glamour Runs Deep who resumes with significant gear changes. Hasn't publicly trialled, but that's not uncommon for the stable, and she took on much better opposition in her first prep, zooming away in heavy ground to win by more than five lengths at only her second start. The one to beat.

Dangers: Improving mare 8. London Gal was solid enough when resuming in a CL1, and has her first outing at home; while 10. Silk Tie returns for only her third start off a quiet trial.

How to play it: Glamour Runs Deep to win. Odds and Evens: Split a special

Race 8 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m):

Open battle to finish, although keen on four-year-old provincial mare 12. Role Play who has won her last two sweeping home from well off the pace. Loves rain-affected going, and this isn't much harder.

Dangers: Metro mare 9. Elveena can hit back third-up after dropping out badly here 10 days ago. Was preferred here to an earlier race. Another city-based four-year-old 5. Mystic Vein dropped out last start at the provincials, but better served coming back to this distance. Keep safe 6. Eurosay who draws well, and will find this a little easier than his last few.

How to play it: Role Play to win.

BEST BETS:
R4 9. MISTAKEN IDENTITY
R8 12. ROLE PLAY

BEST VALUE:
R3 6. SONGBIRD SERENADE

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's meeting at Goulburn

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