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Neil Evans' Tips For Goulburn (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 7 and rail out 10m from 900m to 380m into a cut/away and 6m the remainder

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

We start over the mile on a track that will likely stay well into soft range. Not much between the leading few here, although after breaking through second up at this track, metro three-year-old 3. Brynner can go right on with it. He came from near the back in heavy ground to beat handy maiden opposition, and has solid enough form up to 2000m.

Dangers: Improving filly 6. Spellz is better placed coming back 400m in distance, and she's developed a real liking for this circuit. Provincial mare 4. Classic Train hit the line well last start when ridden much quieter, although not well in at the weights rising 4kg.

How to play it: Brynner to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2150m):

Wouldn't be diving into too short a price about capable Randwick filly 6. Auspicious Cloud, but she's the one to beat fourth up after a good closing effort at Canberra. Surged home to win her maiden at only previous start at this track, and from a good trailing draw with a far superior and stronger jockey taking over, she's got more upside than the rest.

Dangers: Keep very safe 9. Makadeel who was well beaten behind the top selection here three starts back, but she's continued to improve, and also gets back down to the minimum weight. Canberra five-year-old 1. Epizeel took 26 starts to break his maiden at home before sticking on okay in stronger country grade. Up sharply in weight, but a senior rider takes over, and there's a few here just going around for practice.

How to play it: Auspicious Cloud to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)

Open contest for the maidens at set weights. Talented three-year-old 2. Hotsep bumped into a smart one on debut in heavy ground at Newcastle, and has more than enough ability to win this, with blinkers coming off. Was scratched from Hawkesbury on Sunday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Watch the betting on well-bred metro two-year-old 11. Let's Roll coming off a fair debut run 18 days ago; while local filly 6. Crazy Ladies goes in all exotic bets.

How to play it: Hotstep to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Progressive metro three-year-old 1. Lady Fraulein is ready to break through third-up in her first real prep. After flopping first-up in much tougher company when leading, was ridden quieter at Gosford four weeks back and finished off well. The handicapper hasn't missed her with 60kg, but first time back at country level, and bred to thrive in soft ground, she's the class factor.

Dangers: Home tracker 6. Negation failed to run on in a deeper metro field first-up, but has since bolted in a trial, and this is far more to her liking. Expecting sharp improvement down in grade second-up from 3. Mad Darcey who was only beaten three lengths behind a promising one who then saluted at Rosehill on Saturday; while big watch on American Pharaoh two-year-old debutant 9. Pavitra behind two trials. At big odds, 10. Poppy's Girl is worth including in exotics coming back from four runs in provincial company, and blinkers going on.

How to play it: Lady Fraulein to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Tough local four-year-old 3. Master Joe is primed after chasing home two very handy winners to start his career. Winkers have been applied and the decision to stay at this distance, with good tactical speed from the draw, is a vote of confidence from the trainer.

Dangers: Promising filly 6. Selfie Time resumes for a third start, and was close-up in a turf trial before an even trial on the synthetic 10 days ago. Big gap to the rest headed by 7. Glint Of Silver third-up.

How to play it: Master Joe to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

Metro mare 8. Red Hot resumes without officially trialling in a weakened race, and generally comes to hand quickly. Won both starts at this track last prep, and handles rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Rival Randwick filly 10. Squiggles is also first-up with blinkers off behind two quiet trials; while 13. One Pose comes off a first-up BM 58 win here, and both career wins from six starts have come in soft going.

How to play it: Red Hot to win and box exacta 8,10,13
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

Keen on metro three-year-old 2. Cinque Torri second-up and six weeks between runs, with blinkers removed. Looked sharp bolting in a recent trial, and this is the ideal distance and ground for a galloper capable of winning much better races.

Dangers: Home track five-year-old 8. Newtown Braveheart is third-up and likes rain-affected ground; while 10. Miss Barty's Party is also third-up.

How to play it: Cinque Torri to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R4 1. LADY FRAULEIN
R5 3. MASTER JOE

BEST VALUE:
R1 3. BRYNNER

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Goulburn meeting

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