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Neil Evans' Tips For Goulburn (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 6 and rail True:

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

We start over the mile on a track likely to slip back to a Soft 6, and that augurs well for progressive Pierro three-year-old 5. Don Pedro at just his fourth start. Came off a fair maiden effort in tougher provincial company to destroy country opposition by more than seven lengths 17 days ago. Can roll forward or take a sdit form this gate, and naturally bred to thrive in rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Watch the betting on metro stablemate 3. Midori Burly who finished well at the provincial three starts back to claim his maiden before being solid enough in his last two. Metro mare 2. True Valentine fifth-up and back in grade can run into the money; while last start Albury winner 4. Taliano adds further value into exotic returns.

How to play it: Don Pedro to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 2 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m):

Competitive country short-course affair for this grade. Keen on Randwick-based Deep Field filly 8. Ningaloo Star first-up behind a soft track trial win. Yet to place fresh in the past, but she's much stronger now, comes back to weaker company this time, and only previous run here surged home to comfortably win a Class 1.

Dangers: Metro filly 2. Lunar Rocks has enough tactical speed, draws well, and is suited back to this shorter journey third-up. Was preferred here to Wyong on Sunday. Watch the betting on resuming home tracker 6. Charlemagne who has trialled okay, gets through soft ground, and the stable if having a cracking run.

How to play it: Ningaloo Star to win
Odds and Evens: Evens a special

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Two three-year-olds drawn low and alongside each other can fight this out, with Warwick Farm filly 4. Estilette getting the nod resuming off two forward and progressive trials, and with blinkers coming off. Begins her second prep in an ideal race, and only previous start here bounced to the front in similar ground and gave nothing else a chance.

Dangers: Randwick-based 3. Pennypacker is five runs into the prep, and swept home to win his maiden two weeks ago from the same barrier. Yet to prove himself on rain-affected ground, but bred to handle it, and gets a nice run with cover midfield. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Change Is Coming fourth-up with blinkers going on; while 5. Jasiri third-up and down in grade is capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Estilette to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 COUNTRY C'SHIP PREVIEW - CLASS 4 HCP (1300m):

Now the feature race for Country C'ship hopefuls, and warming nicely to local five-year-old 2. Unique Prince who resumes off a quiet trial, with winkers removed. Very honest in and around the money last prep against slightly deeper opposition, and stable is ultra keen to fire having relocated from Canberra late last year.

Dangers: No doubting progressive mare 3. Iconic Dame is a threat third-up in suitable ground and dropping back from two handy Highway runs. Keep safe Canberra five-year-old 7. The Pres who can run a big race fresh in conditions he loves; while 1. Dragons Breath behind a tough front-running CL3 win; and home tracker 4. Our Baez back in class and drawn the inside; can both be included in trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Unique Prince to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Open and testing maiden, with plenty of chances, especially if the track is downgraded. Tough South Coast mare 5. Aspired has beaten all but the winner in two runs this prep, but can peak here on much softer ground. gets a nice weight advantage too after the rookie rider's 3kg claim.

Dangers: Big watch on local filly 9. Dolce Bella on debut behind a handy trial, and bred to handle the conditions by Sebring. Keep safe too rival local 2. Stand In Line who improves sharply at his second start; while lightly raced 1. Cab Perrio and 11. Trianon after four runs this prep; are best of the rest.

How to play it: Aspired to win and box exacta 2,5,9
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Very keen on Exosphere three-year-old 9. Pure Hydrogen third-up after two solid closing efforts against much deeper metro opposition. Drawn to stay wider out where the best ground is likely to be, and winkers have been added.

Dangers: Another one drawn wider, 2. Savvy Smart can progress off a fast-finishing debut run at the provincials; while Russian Revolution gelding 5. Crazy Russian starts his career behind three trials for a leading metro yard.

How to play it: Pure Hydrogen to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

The fillies' edition closes the card, and it stacks up nicely at good odds for metro three-year-old 13. Queen Astrid who can peak third-up at only her third start. Will likely thrive with the sting out of the ground being by Sebring, and ran home well on a firmer surface 12 days ago against metro opposition.

Dangers: At bigger odds keep safe 4. Majeedis who led until the final couple of strides at Canberra third-up, but this is tougher; while 5. Amberina third-up and 9. Light Press both go in the exotic numbers.

How to play it: Queen Astrid to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 5. DON PEDRO
R7 13. QUEEN ASTRID

BEST VALUE:
R2 8. NINGALOO STAR

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Goulburn meeting

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