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Neil Evans' Tips For Goulburn (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 3m

Race 1 CLASS 2 HCP (1500m):

We start over a middle distance, and keen on improving four-year-old 3. I'm Not Leaving deep into the current prep. Came off two handy efforts to lead for a long way in a BM 58 carrying 61kg, and the step up in distance comes at the right time. Has enough tactical speed to roll across and control the race.

Dangers: Home tracker 1. Jalmari has gone back to the trials after doing it tough from a wide draw first-up in a much tougher Highway. After finishing in the placings in consecutive runs, honest 2. Final Comment finally nailed a second career win from just off the speed at the Sapphire Coast. Hard fit, but more depth in this. Included in exotic bets, local 6. Ribeauville from the inside barrier fourth-up via a soft trial; and 7. Diamond Carat 25 days between runs.

How to play it: I'm Not Leaving to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Same trip for the maidens augurs well for home track three-year-old 6. Kenichi who is ready to strike third-up. Didn't fire when resuming despite being well backed before settling near last here 11 days ago & charging home to only miss by a neck, and probably wins if he doesn't lay in over the final furlong. Stable has reacted by putting winkers on, and the dry track is right up his alley.

Dangers: Rival local 7. Quizy is also knocking on the door fourth-up finishing just in front of the top selection in that same recent race, and gets a nice trail just behind the speed. The third of the main chances, 11. Flying Flossy did her best work late second-up in a handy maiden two weeks ago, and the extra furlong is an obvious plus. Big gap to the rest headed by 2. Galaxy Reign who gets a soft run around midfield.

How to play it: Kenichi to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2120m):

Tough staying affair here, given the early favorite shapes under the odds. Like the value about 2. Stylebender who is ready to snap a long wait for a second career win. Hit the line hard from the back in a BM 60 two starts ago before again doing his best work late in deeper provincial company 15 days ago. Looks well treated in this line-up, especially back on a bigger track where he can settle a little closer from the draw and be saved up for a final 400m burst.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by well bred metro colt 5. Vaguer who comes off a dominant CL1 win. Has the class factor, but wouldn't be diving into too short a quote from a trickier draw here carrying 2.5kg more. Keep safe another metro-based and last start provincial maiden winner in 3. Doutelle who goes up sharply in trip. Similarly, progressive mare 11. Thoughtful Woman steps up carrying 1.5kg less after a strong closing effort second-up over the mile.

How to play it: Stylebender to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

A stack of chances here in this restricted sprint. Like tough and improving provincial three-year-old 8. Jackyy Dee who is primed to make it two wins from his last three. Stalked the speed before finishing best to claim his maiden in the country, then again hit the line late in a CL1 despite being unwanted in betting. That was a good pointer for this, drawn to get lovely cover right behind the speed, with a superior jockey taking over.

Dangers: Very forgiving of 1. Battle Abbey last start in a tougher grade when doing plenty of work to get over from a wide barrier. Had previously swept home to win a similar graded race here in heavy going, and despite shooting back up in weight, draws to find a nice trail just behind the speed. Watch the betting closely with 6. Rupertson resuming off two progressive trials, with blinkers back on. At bigger odds, keep safe too local 3. Bleue's Choice who resumes from the inside draw, and has twice been in the placings from four fresh runs; while home track stablemates 5. Rent A Rock deep into the prep; and 10. My Blue Jeans dropping in class on an 11 day back-up; both go in exotic plays.

How to play it: Jackyy Dee to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Now the girls' edition, and settling on the value aboard Hellbent filly 3. Hell's Value who returns off a long spell for just her fourth start, and first for the new Bjorn Baker stable at Warwick Farm. Was good enough to debut in city company last July, and progressed into a third start country maiden win. Given two quiet metro trials to prepare, and from a good draw, will be very strong late.

Dangers: Watch the market on tough 1. Continuum who flooded home to win a similar race first-up off a four week break for the new stable, and big weight has been off-set with a 4kg claim. Improving mare 2. Lunar Solar makes the long trip over the border also off a fresh BM 58 win at her Wodonga home, with a 3kg allowance in play. Must respect too consistent filly 7. Artieos first-up with gear changes off a handy provincial trial.

How to play it: Hell's Fury to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):

Improving metro three-year-old 2. Emancipist can overcome a wide gate, and break through fourth-up. Never got warm in a couple of deeper provincial races when trapped in the worst part of very chopped up tracks, but found his best thundering home into a place at Newcastle on dry ground. Will again settle back from the draw, but watch for a superior final 300m burst.

Dangers: Tough and consistent 1. Dark Vador draws to park right behind the speed, and has beaten all but the winner in three of his last four. Improving two-year-old 10. Denman Star hit the line well first-up here behind a dominant winner, but that two-year-old then went under as a raging odds-on favorite in the Silver Goblet at Dubbo. Provincial colt 11. Invaida Prince can improve at his second start.

How to play it: Emancipist to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Still with the maidens back in distance, and it's a tricky albeit weakened affair. This augurs well for tough metro four-year-old 1. November Rhythm who is bursting to break through third-up having missed by a long head here 11 days ago.

Dangers: Debutant and provincial-based Deep Field filly 6. Ausbred Mimosa; and 7. Deephar off a tidy debut run here, and drawn to roll forward; can all fight out the minor placings.

How to play it: November Rhythm to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m):

The toughest and widest race of the day is saved for last. Like the value of lightly raced five-year-old 4. Trooper Knuckle second-up. Worked home okay resuming here under a hefty 62kg, stays at the distance, and importantly carries 2kg less after the claim.

Dangers: Coming out of that same race when finding the line well fourth-up, 5. Cool Lad will again drift back from a wide draw, but can finish hard. Tough local 2. Charlemagne has scored dominant back-to-back wins in this grade, beating both the former, but has a tough task carrying 2.5kg more from a wide barrier. Gap to the rest

How to play it: Trooper Knuckle each way
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 6. KENICHI
R4 8. JACKYY DEE

BEST VALUE:
R5 3. HELL'S FURY

All the entries, form and replays for Friday's Goulburn meeting

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