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By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 6 and rail out 3m from 900m to 400m & True the remainder

We open up over the long journey on a track that will likely start in soft range, but could easily end closer to heavy if the forecast rain arrives. Progressive four-year-old 4. Leather Jacket Lew gets a key gear change after over-racing second-up. Still wasn't beaten far, steps out to the longer trip now, and should find a nice trail just off the speed.

Dangers: Tough mare 5. Forever Spotted is on the six day back-up after being run down at Tamworth in similar grade; while the rise in distance from the inside draw might finally spark 6. Arcadia Power who has been nothing but terribly disappointing all prep.

How to play it: Leather Jacket Lew to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Former metropolitan mare 10. Silver Scissors produced a much better close run first-up for the new local stable off a six week break. While disappointing in her last prep when often in the market, she looks to have found her right home, and this is weak.

Dangers: Ultra honest five-year-old 4. Flashlin should be able to find the front, and give a big sight. Has placed in his last couple under the same weight at this track. Expect third-up improvement from 5. Foxwell coming back in class; while 8. Smooth Esprit has hit the line in his last two, although again will be forced well back from the wide draw.

How to play it: Silver Scissors each way. Odds and Evens: Evens

Very tricky maiden for the girls, with a few unlikely to go around having raced inside the last four days. Emerging filly 5. Rubick Sun returns for a new local stable for only her second start. No public trials, but reportedly been working well.

Dangers: Watch the betting on four-year-old mare 2. Arimathea who resumes for a new yard without having officially trialled. Keep safe improving filly 8. Billabong Isle who draws the inside second-up; while 11. Sizzling Love didn't fire a shot at her third start and can improve sharply, although won't want it much worse than a Soft 6.

How to play it: Rubick Sun to win. Odds and Evens: Split

The boys' edition is seemingly more cut and dried, with tough Your Song three-year-old 2. Rhythmic Song primed to break through fourth-up. Has stuck on strong in consecutive and deeper maidens here, and bred to be the superior wet tracker.

Dangers: Ex-Victorian four-year-old 7. No Debt resumes off a seven week break for the new local stable, with notable gear changes. Draws to get cover, but his form down south was only fair. Big watch on Astern three-year-old 4. Centurion on debut behind a quiet trial; while included in wider exotics 8. Sumo who finished off nicely third-up.

How to play it: Rhythmic Song to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Plenty of chances in this one, with the speed on. Expecting home track five-year-old 1. Castlebar Road to return with a bang off a near six month spell. Won twice here in heavy going before going to the paddock, and is one of those classic heavy track sprinters.

Dangers: Talented four-year-old 3. Ranuncula is a big threat first-up for six weeks off a smart trial win. Always shown his best when on the fresher side, and swept home to win at this track two starts back. Improving mare 2. Our Blue Moon was a dominant BM 58 winner first-up and normally carries that form into her next run, although will have to tuck in from a wide barrier. Lightly raced six-year-old 5. Pass The Card has very solid form in and around this class, and is unbeaten from two starts on soft ground.

How to play it: Castlebar Road to win and box trifecta 1,2,3,5. Odds and Evens: Split

Out to a middle distance for another very open contest, and by this stage any rain and pattern may have a big say. Local eight-year-old and former Victorian 1. Honeywine has been campaigning effectively enough in this grade all prep on both sides of the border. Hit the line impressively in a deeper field at Tamworth, and with a clear liking for rain-affected ground, he will take plenty of holding out. Bolted in his only previous start at this track.

Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 5. Winter Moon is working through the grades nicely having won two of his last four, although a query if the track gets too wet. Included in exotics 3. Coulpa who won a weaker race here five weeks ago; while 7. Polished Penny is also worthy of trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Honeywine to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Keen on under-rated local five-year-old mare 11. Tells Tails who can continue a terrific record at home. Was heavily backed when surging late to win a similar grade here two starts ago before again making up ground behind a smart sprinter. Carries 2kg less after the claim and is bred to handle any downgrades in track rating.

Dangers: Honest mare 8. Denace hasn't won for a while, yet been in and around the placings all prep. Back up in grade, but the drop in weight and distance come at the right time, and in ground she loves can surge forward from an ideal draw. No doubting local five-year-old 2. Daredevil has the first-up class to score, although the inside ground under 61kg may prove a burden. Loves the trip and has trialled strongly. Tough mare 5. Mornay can pick and choose her races, but relishes soft ground, and draws the inside.

How To Play It: Tells Tails each way and box exacta 2,8,11. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 4. LEATHER JACKET LEW
R4 2. RHYTHMIC SONG

BEST VALUE:
R7 11. TELLS TAILS

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Dubbo meeting