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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 & Rail True:

Race 1 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRE MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Intriguing betting sprint for the boys to open. Leaning to home track three-year-old 7. He's All Style at the value peaking fourth-up, with winkers being added. Has kept gradually improving this prep, and again draws to get a nice trip just behind the speed, with top country jockey sticking solid.

Dangers: No question early favourite and still improving 2. Canny Prospect is bursting to break through fourth-up. Ran home into a place in handy maiden fields before charging late to miss by under a length at Taree in soft 7 ground. Should relish settling back here on a big and spacious track, and some showers wouldn't hurt either. Clear threat, although a shade under the odds. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Cheap Gas who ran above his big price on debut; while 4. Platinum Warrior is the best of the rest.

How to play it: He's All Style to win and quinella 2 and 7

Race 2 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Now the girls' turn, and can't go past lightly raced filly 6. Choice Witness who is ready to win second-up in her second prep, with blinkers going on. Went under narrowly as a hot favourite when resuming, but fitter now and switching to a bigger track is the key to breaking through.

Dangers: Watch the betting on local filly 11. Grand Oyster by Territories who debuts with a light weight behind a steady trial. Stablemate to the top selection, 12. Verendy is also a market watch on debut, having not been publicly seen since a very quiet metro trial last autumn. At bigger odds, include 3. Painite with gear changes in exotic plays.

How to play it: Choice Witness to win

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Peaking third-up from a soft draw, consistent four-year-old 1. Medinah is the one to beat, although he was accepted for the Muswellbrook meeting as well. Worked home strongly as a well backed favourite at Scone nearly four weeks back, and the extra 100m is a plus.

Dangers: Expecting sharp improvement from 4. Dances With Hooves after working home okay from a long way back on debut when rock solid in the market. Improving 5. Freewheeler is also in the hunt fourth-up from the inside barrier, and dropping significantly in weight. Gap to the rest headed by 7. Mission Mummabear who is trained on the track, and draws to get plenty of cover behind the speed; while improving local filly 10. The Git Up is also capable of running into the money third-up.

How to play it: Medinah to win

Race 4 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Improving home track three-year-old 9. Rothgate who can make it two from his last three fourth-up. Surged late for a narrow win as a hot favourite two starts ago before failing to run home from just behind the speed 18 days ago. Ready now for this longer trip, and he can roll forward in a race where there doesn't look to be much speed.

Dangers: Naturally from a low draw off a fast finishing first-up maiden win, 12. Erelle will be hard to hold out, although wouldn't want to drift too far back jumping up 300m in trip. Another one who can peak fourth-up over more ground is 3. Hallowed Star, although will likely be forced a long way back from the wide gate. Gap to the rest headed by 11. Thunderbolter third-up.

How to play it: Rothgate to win

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Resuming and lightly raced local three-year-old 4. Plenitude can strike fresh. Hasn't started since a barnstorming win here over the hot favourite and talented Hellfire Express in the Silver Goblet, and no public trials, but will come to hand quickly for a leading stable.

Dangers: Keep very safe lightly raced 5. Dancedes down in weight second-up; while 1. Destiny's Bounty third-up; and an improving local 10. Wasted Days from a soft trailing draw; are both capable of running into the money.

How to play it: Plenitude to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Now for the feature and opening heat of the Summer Sprint Series, and it shapes ideally for promising and speedy local three-year-old 6. Devine Chops who can go back-to-back in his first full prep. Bounced to the front and gave nothing else a chance first-up off a long break at Orange, and back at home from a soft on-speed draw, he can put them to the sword again.

Dangers: Progressive 3. Apollo Star has a sound record at this track, and hits peak fitness fourth-up staying at the short distance. Resuming 1. Keep On Going hasn't officially trialled, but reportedly has been working well, and is over the odds from the fence draw. At good odds, improving local mare 2. My Odette goes into wider exotic bets. Expect a big fresh run from underrated home tracker 5. Sin City Belle at big odds; while 9. Simply Better is also a worthy inclusion in trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Devine Chops to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

Open race to close the card, although progressive mare 8. Adelsun rates on top third-up and significantly on a seven day turnaround. Charged home from the back in similar company last time, and getting back on a more suitable bigger track, and with a stronger jockey taking over, she only needs to get out in clear air from the 400m.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for 13. Divine Rendezvous at good odds third-up after hitting the line hard in weaker company here three weeks ago. Drawn wide third-up, 7. Pants On Fire will need the early breaks, but steps up from a dominant win here in weaker company. Include in all exotics, 1. Celtic Harp down in grade on a quick back-up; 3. Dream Game fourth-up; and 6. Owhata Crumpet who has been freshened off an upset win in similar company.

How to play it: Adelsun to win

BEST BETS:
R3 1. MEDINAH
R6 6. DEVINE CHOPS

BEST VALUE:
R5 4. PLENITUDE

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Dubbo meeting

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