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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 6 and rail out 6m from 1000m to 400m & True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1618m):

A tactical maiden over the mile gets us rolling on a track that will continue to improve. Like 1. Aussie Pharoah who has been in and around the money right through tthis first full prep. Couldn't be fitter nudging back out to a more suitably longer trip, and the top country jockey keeps the ride.

Dangers: Big watch at odds on locally-trained 2. High Charge also deep into the prep, with a more senior and experienced rider taking over. No doubting 5. A Boy Named Soo has more than enough ability to win. Held his ground into the placings in a slightly deeper maiden last time after working over from a wide draw. Gap to the rest headed by 9. I'm Scarlett fourth-up; and at much bigger odds 6. No Guarantees over more ground from a soft draw.

How to play it: Aussie Pharoah to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 CLASS 2 HCP (1618m):

Got plenty of time for lightly raced six-year-old 2. Daksha who has been hitting the line from well back all prep, and bursting now for this longer journey. Didn't have a lot of luck when weaving through from a mile back here in similar company two weeks ago, and he's the best weighted runner after the junior rider's 4kg claim. The more the track dries out the better placed he is.

Dangers: Progressive 1. East Harlem capped some consistent and close-up form by finishing best to win that same last-start race as the top selection. Draws to get a soft run right behind the speed, but threatens to go around a little under the odds, up to 60kg. Keep safe 4. Charlotting, who flopped in that same race here, but had beaten all bar the winner in three straight runs prior, and Aaron Bullock takes over in the saddle. Both honest 3. Chowdah fifth-up from a good cover draw; and improving 5. Second Half third-up; can run into the money.

How to play it: Daksha to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1018m):

Keen on home tracker 4. Vanoureuce who continues to bang on the door deep into the prep. Right at home on soft ground, and ran home strongly here into a place last time in a sound form race where the second placed runner then won her next start.

Dangers: The market will be a good guide too for debutant Redwood three-year-old 3. Superabundant who starts his career off two very quiet trials. At bigger odds include 8. Tokoyo first-up; 10. Rebel Flyer on debut as a gelding wearing blinkers; and local filly 14. Carrana Anne, resuming off a nice trial behind the smart Maryland Bridge; in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Vanoureuce to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1318m):

One of the more open and tougher races on the program. Despite drawing the outside barrier, this stacks up well for improving filly 7. Kilkivarn fourth-up. Drops down to only half kilo over he minimum weight after chasing home a smart winner here two weeks back.

Dangers: Ex-Qlder 3. Invahir backs up in just nine days for the new local yard after transferring down where his provincial form was fair, but also draws wide. Keep safe, improving mare 9. Painite who flooded home first-up running Maryland Bridge to under a length. Gets a key jockey change too, but from a wide gate will be forced a long way back again. Include 10. Keys To Love from a soft draw; and 6. Clendenning back from provincial level second-up, and drawn to get a soft run.

How to play it: Kilkivarn to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1318m):

Can't go past promising local filly 3. Maryland Bridge who justified her hot quote here a fortnight back finishing too well from midfield. Still looks to have plenty of scope to improve, and the extra furlong is right up her alley.

Dangers: Watch for any market moves aboard 1. Powderfinger up in distance with a crucial 4kg claim. Did her best work late here second-up behind a dominant winner. Last start maiden winner 5. Chestime is on a fitness peak, and will roll forward from a low draw. Honest 6. L'esperance Rock has more to offer than her winning strike-rate suggests, and draws to get plenty of cover around midfield. Local mare 7. Arion Story heads the rest coming off a dominant last start maiden win leading all the way.

How to play it: Maryland Bridge to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 BENCHMARK 74 (1018m):

Testing and deep sprint batte for this grade. Like lightly raced and talented five-year-old 4. Boom Boom Basil first-up for 11 weeks. Unbeaten here at home, with a very solid fresh record, and crucially the blinkers go back on.

Dangers: Promising mare 11. Sussu is ready to strike third-up after working home late into a place in CL3 Highway company three weeks back. Already a smart soft track winner, and given her overall form, she looks supremely weighted only half kilo over the limit weight here. Another one very fresh, 7. Pure Fuego hasn't started since early last spring, but two progressive trials up to 1000m suggests she's forward enough. Gradual improver 2. Beauchamp has enough tactical speed, and should be right at his peak now fourth-up. Underrated mare 10. Billabong Isle is over the odds fourth-up down in weight, and with blinkers coming off.

How to play it: Boom Boom Basil to win and box exacta 4,7,11
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1118m):

This shapes well for honest local filly 2. D'arpano reloading off a nine week break. Hasn't been far away in much deeper company in her last three, and saluted when last tackling this grade. Well treated at the weights coming back from BM 74 level, especially with a couple of others likely to come out after racing at Wellington on Saturday.

Dangers: Watch the betting on 1. River Rocket first-up for 10 weeks from the inside draw, with a 4kg allowance off-setting the big weight; while 8. Hamish The Swift back on the turf and drawn well; heads the rest. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: D'arpano to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1118m):

Same grade and trip, although the market will change if as expected second reserve 13. Sussu goes to that earlier race. Keen to back home track mare 1. Memories returning for her first run since late December, especially with a vital 3kg claim. Hit the line continually in tougher races last time, comes to hand early in the prep, and is a reliable big weight carrier.

Dangers: No doubting 2. Kimmylee was impressive running down a tough sprinter here second-up, but she doesn't win often and now asked to carry 61kg. Watch the market with 3. Keep On Going first-up from a softer draw; while 7. Venatic off a dominant front-running maiden win; is clear best of the rest.

How to play it: Memories to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 9 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1418m):

Open battle to finish. Like 1. Toulon Factor up in distance second-up off a six week break. Loved the way he kept chasing home fresh in a tougher grade, and the eight day back-up is a sure sign he's continued to do well. Well used to carrying weight, and with enough speed on, he can produce a superior final 400m finish.

Dangers: Local mare 2. Starlink ran on well from a near impossible position in the Winter Classic Final here after two impressive fast-finishing wins in and around this level. Loves soft ground, but again the inside draw late in the day may come against her. Included in trifecta and first fours, 9. Our Blue Moon coming out of that same race as the top selection; 10. Sin City Belle fifth-up; and 12. Lady Riz who drops back in distance.

How to play it: Toulon Factor to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 2. DAKSHA
R5 3. MARYLAND BRIDGE

BEST VALUE:
R8 1. MEMORIES

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Dubbo meeting

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