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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 900m to 400m & true the remainder

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2200m):

We start a terrific feature country meeting over the staying journey on a surface that should improve to Soft 5 or even a fraction firmer. Improving five-year-old 1. Do This All Day is ready to peak fourth-up at this longer trip. Closed off well under a similar weight three weeks back, and getting on to a much bigger circuit is the key.

Dangers: Tough mare 4. Croatian Madame swept home to win two starts back before not getting a lot of room when finishing late in a provincial BM 58. Also better off on a bigger track on the seven day back-up. Keep safe 5. Raiding who is bred to stay, and gets first use of the inside stepping up sharply in distance. Hard fit and last start winner 3. Weave That Web is on the next line, although faces a deeper race.

How to play it: Do This All Day to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Promising three-year-old 2. Eagledge reloads after missing the abandoned Tamworth meeting last Friday, with key gear changes in play. Impressive on debut, working across to trail the speed and kept surging to only go under by a half head. Back 100m in trip, but from a softer trailing draw, he only needs clear air from the 300m to open his account.

Dangers: Doubt there are any if the top fancy jumps cleanly, but resuming 4. Theremin can run the quinella behind a quiet trial; while 8. Finding Alice dropping back from provincial company; and 10. Kilkivarn third-up; are both capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Eagledge to win and quinella 2 and 4
Odds and Evens: Evens a special

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Same set-up again, and keen at very big odds on lightly raced local mare 10. Soul Night who can strike here second-up over 100m further. Ran home late here 17 days ago, and a slightly bigger field with more pace on up front is the recipe to finish over the top.

Dangers: Promising filly 8. Maryland Bridge is the natural clear threat. Just missed on debut in that same race as the top selection, despite being unwanted in betting, and the top country hoop takes over here. Improving 2. Guitar George; and 9. Painite resuming with gear changes; can all add plenty of value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Soul Night each way and quinella 8 and 10
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 4 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m):

Always testing and tricky affairs at this level, especially over a mile trip. If ever one is primed to break through, it's capable home track six-year-old 5. Smooth Esprit very well placed back in class second-up off a month's break. Beaten only a length in much deeper Highway grade 16 days ago when charging home from the back, and returns home for this over 100m further carrying just 1.5kg more.

Dangers: Expect 2. The Mediator to be running home again up in distance behind a nice BM 58 win here; while 1. Foodie King who is honest and very fit; and 7. Rebel's Edge who also comes back from that Highway after dropping right out from on-speed; are both capable of finishing in the minor money.

How to play it: Smooth Esprit to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Plenty of chances in this maiden headed by local mare 7. Kirameki, who is bursting to break through deep into the prep, Hasn't had much luck placed in two of her last three, but she has a superior closing 400m dash on the limit weight, and only needs early cover from a wider gate.

Dangers: Improving 3. A Boy Named Soo is ready to win fifth-up in his first full prep after hitting the line hard three weeks back. Gets good weight relief for this, but threatens to jump under the odds from a tough draw. Keep safe as well 11. Camp Cove who is still chasing a breakthrough win at her 49th attempt, but has placed 14 times, and did run home well from the back here 17 days ago. Watch the betting on Shamus Award four-year-old 1. Orcym Busby who debuts behind an easy trial; while stablemate 5. Aero Nautica is best of the rest, also fifth-up from a softer draw.

How to play it: Kirameki to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

Now the feature Winter Country Classic Final, and it shapes nicely for smart home track mare 2. Starlink who can make it three straight, and book a metro assignment. Swept home to win a handy CL2 two runs ago before even more impressive when forced to weave through from well back & find better ground wider out to win the girls' qualifying edition here 17 days ago. Thrives in soft ground, and is the one to beat.

Dangers: Progressive 8. Feirme Prince is breathing all over this fourth-up after sailing home late to miss narrowly in the boys' qualifier. Local four-year-old 9. Starane comes through that same race as the former when holding his ground okay, but was ridden way too close that day. Big watch too on underrated 3. Brogan's Creek who is hard fit, and was only run down late in that same boys' qualifier. From the inside barrier, 13. Top End Mikki is next best having finished just over a length from the top selection in the qualifier.

How to play it: Starlink to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

All aboard talented mare 3. Pliskova who resumes off a near 10 month break for a strong combination. Broke through at third start last spring in a good quality maiden before being turned out, but prepared for this via a smart open class trial win three weeks ago.

Dangers: Lightly raced mare 9. Life's A Party is a clear threat 17 days after sticking on well in a handy CL1 here. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Devilicious who showed speed to score a deserved second-up win as a hot favourite, but won't get such luxuries here on a tougher and bigger track. Included in exotics 8. Candid who has only been out of a place once in her last five.

How to play it: Pliskova to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Always been a fan of tough and lightly raced local six-year-old 1. Castlebar Road, who is ready to win again third-up, despite drawing off the track. Was stiff not to win fresh here when only collared in the final strides after doing plenty of early work before again being swamped late in a handy CL2. Back at home over the five furlongs is his go.

Dangers: Naturally plenty at very backable odds in a sprint like this headed by that first-up CL2 winner 3. Electric Storm who is over the odds from a good trailing draw. Capable mare 5. Kora Magic is well placed third-up dropping in grade, and entitled to have a smarter record than only two wins, having placed a further 10 times from 19 starts. Keep safe too 7. Kimmylee second-up off a six week break, with a key jockey switch; while 6. Hampton Cove second-up behind a gallant effort in the Gulgong Cup; and 9. Lady Lucilla resuming; are both worthy exotic candidates.

How to play it: Castlebar Road to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 9 CLASS 2 HCP (1400m):

Another very open affair to finish. Like the placement here of six-year-old 6. Daksha who can strike fifth-up in a race of slightly less depth. Has been hitting the line late from well back all prep in generally deeper company, and crucially can park a little closer here from a better draw. Suited on this spacious course.

Dangers: Improving three-year-old 7. Vis I Do is over the odds from a good draw and shooting for a third straight win despite tackling a stronger race. Improving 4. Crop Duster is also over the mark third-up on a quick turnaround from deeper Highway company; while 2. Press Forward shooting for a third straight win from a wide draw and up in class; and 10. East Harlem beaten a whisker by the former third-up; can both run into the minor money.

How to play it: Daksha to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 1. DO THIS ALL DAY
R7 3. PLISKOVA

BEST VALUE:
R9 6. DAKSHA

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Dubbo meeting

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