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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 8 & Rail out 6m from 1000m to 400m & True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1620m):

Improving four-year-old 3. Jeffo is tracking to peak fourth-up getting out in distance. Wasn't overly suited on the tighter track when running home late as an easing favourite before again hitting the line impressively via a checkered run in heavy going here over 1400m. Drawn to get cover off the fence with some nice weight relief, and striking peak fitness over a much-needed longer trip; he's ready to win.

Dangers: 6. Hot Gospel is the immediate threat also fourth-up after hitting the line into a place in consecutive maidens that had more depth. Gap to the rest headed by 1. Bledisloe who is hard fit, but finding it hard to break through, although the extra trip is a plus; while 5. Amantaka is on a seven day back-up from a deeper Super Maiden.

How to play it: Jeffo to win

Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2220m):

Tough mare 1. Raiding ran home evenly in three straight runs at this track before attacking the line late in a deeper BM 66. Tracking to peak now getting out to the longer and more suitable trip; and well weighted carrying only 2kg more after the jockey's claim for the drop in grade.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for 4. Love Rules who gets in light after the claim and is suited over further. Expecting a better run from 3. Rufus Winright who had little chance last time settling a mile back, and then going through the slower part of the track in the straight; while 2. Foxy Baroness fifth-up is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Raiding to win

How to play it: Raiding to win

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1320m):

Lightly raced 2. Air Combat peaks big second-up, with winkers going on. Showed solid improvement across his initial prep earlier in the year culminating in a strong closing run at deeper provincial level over 100m further. Did his best work late when resuming here over too short a distance, but this shapes as the right trip now, settling in the 2nd half of the field.

Dangers: Big watch on tough and consistent 8. High Charge who is very fit, sound in the going and draws to get good cover off speed. Keep safe at bigger odds 11. Oojah Capow deep into his prep.

How to play it: Air Combat to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1020m):

Plenty of chances in a good quality sprint, but talented 5. Aquarter is best suited up in grade & aiming for back-to-back wins third-up. Was stiff when resuming getting home hard against BM 66 opposition before a dominant win here when slicing through the field & powering over the top in heavy ground. Right up to this level, and again settles back midfield with cover before being given his head around the 400m. Well in at the weights after the 2kg claim.

Dangers: 1. Custo has plenty of class when fresh, and looks well tuned for this after a smart trial win at Scone. Big watch on local mare 6. Starlink who resumes without officially trialling, but comes to hand quickly and was a dominant winner at BM 66 level last prep. 4. Castlebar Road fourth-up with a claim boasts tactical speed and can give a big sight for a long way.

How to play it: Aquarter to win

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1020m):

Having his first run for the new home track stable off a two month break, 3. Great Southernland can strike fresh, especially with the track drying out. Hit the line from well back in a handy Super Maiden before again doing his best work late in a strong race at Scone over 1300m. Has a rock solid record when on the fresher side; and key gear changes including blinkers coming off are further pointers he's ready to go. Will naturally settle off speed & come with a sustained late run.

Dangers: Emerging 12. Wicked Testimony is well suited if he gets a run. Has attacked the line impressively in his last two, and his natural off speed pattern off-sets the wide draw. Keep safe too 4. He's All Style who improves sharply second-up; while lightly raced 2. Erion at his fourth start; and improving 8. Lots Of Fiddees who relishes rain-affected round; both go into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Great Southernland to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1120m):

Local five-year-old 2. Midnight Dream drops sharply in class fourth-up. Ran home okay when fresh here after being backed from $4.80 into $4.00 before again hitting the line from much further back over 1100m. Went to deeper Saturday Highway grade at Randwick, and held his own back in the field behind one of the more exciting gallopers in NSW. Back at home now in this company on a 9-day turnaround over a shorter trip, and with the jockey's allowance, he's ready to claim a fourth career win at 27th start.

Dangers: Hard fit and drawn the fence, 8. Climate Control is reliable in all conditions, and has been placed behind some smart winners this prep. Watch the betting on emerging filly 9. Ishamashi who was solid enough through the line first-up here in heavy going; while 5. Obey improves second-up over a longer trip. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Midnight Dream to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1120m):

Progressive 3. Giving Delight comes back in distance five weeks between runs. Has been right behind the placegetters in three of his last four, each time powering home late, and twice as a clear favorite when not getting much luck in transit. Both his career wins so far have come at this bigger track. Will also find this a bit easier than his last outing here, and freshened up; nothing will be finding the line stronger.

Dangers: Watch the market closely aboard 8. Rothgate who resumes with no official trials for a leading local stable, and normally comes to hand quickly. Home tracker 1. Pyromania continues to race well, and draws inside, although the handicapper hasn't missed him with 63kg. Keep safe 2. Starane who relishes this trip; while 4. Feirme Prince and at bigger odds 6. Barcoo River can both add plenty of value into wider exotic plays.

How to play it: Giving Delight to win

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 (1420m):

Local mare 7. Sports Page has never raced better, winning her last two, including the Winter Country Classic Final here. Drawn out, but thrives in the going in what is now a weakened race.

Dangers: Over the odds is 6. Turnaway third-up with blinkers back on. 5. Dreambender also relishes wet tracks, and represents value fifth-up; while 2. Skyforger and 8. Cheap Shot, both fourth-up; go in all exotic plays.

How to play it: Sports Page to win

BEST BETS:
R3 2. AIR COMBAT
R4 5. AQUARTER

BEST VALUE:
R6 2. MIDNIGHT DREAM

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Dubbo meeting

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