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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 3m from 900m to 400m & True the remainder:

Race 1 3YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

We start the feature Showcase meeting with the older maidens. Like improving home track four-year-old 8. Break Over third-up. Led until the last couple of strides at Wellington 12 days ago, and fitter here, can again control the race from a better draw.

Dangers: Improving local 1. Vanoureuce is on the cusp of breaking through fifth-up in his first full prep, and is a stablemate of the top selection. Has enough tactical speed to overcome the wide draw, and was only collared late by the hot favorite at Wellington 12 days ago. Similar for consistent 2. Hot Extraction who has been in the placings last three, and will also look to slide across from a wider barriere arly. Include debutant Pariah filly 3. Maryland Bridge who is trained here and comes off a trial win; and another local 12. Soul Night who resumes for a second prep from the inside draw with a handy weight drop.

How to play it: Break Over to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):

Lightly raced 1. Aussie Pharoah can make enough improvement here to break through at his third start. Did his best work late from well back last time, and an extra 100m and switch to a bigger track are natural plusses.

Dangers: Keep safe 4. Magic Prophet who finds a thinner contest second-up; while 2. Bon Zipper second-up; and 14. Priding deep into her prep; can both add value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Aussie Pharoah to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 OPEN HCP (1000m):

Back to the five furlongs for the open class sprinters, and it shapes well for fit and progressive home track four-year-old 6. Dubbo Wanderer back 100m in trip five weeks between runs. Looks superbly weighted after the claim coming back from a much deeper Listed sprint over the Scone carnival, and draws to get a soft run midfield on the fence. Only needs a clear run from the 350m.

Dangers: Must keep safe honest 2. Dalavin five weeks between runs from a soft draw, and with a 3kg claim to off-set the weight. Liked the first-up effort of 5. Beauchamp when running home into a place, and afforded a big weight drop here, although this is tougher. From a handy draw, 7. Foreign Brother also has a claim fourth-up after narrowly missing in his last two in and around similar company. Gap to the rest, although xpect sharp second-uip improvement from 8. Ranuncula after being unwanted in betting here 20 days ago.

How to play it: Dubbo Wanderer to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 SILVER GOBLET - 2YO HCP (1100m):

The feature dash for the two-year-olds is often an intriguing betting affair, but off an impressive debut win when sweeping home from midfield, hard to see emerging gelding 1. Hellfire Express getting beat. Had gone into that win off a dominant Randwick trial on soft ground, and from this draw, he can park even closer.

Dangers: Home tracker 2. Plenitude can run the quinella after finishing hard on debut here in a handy juvenile sprint. Include in all exotics bets, debutant fillies 5. Aunty Maree by Smart Missile; and 10. Staffa by Mendolssohen behind an encouraging provincial trial win.

How to play it: Hellfire Express to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Plenty more chances in this competitive sprint headed by improving three-year-old 5. East Harlem who can claim a second win third-up. Drawn okay with winkers going on, and prefers drier ground.

Dangers: Watch the betting around 10. Life's A Party who resumes for only her second start off an easy debut win late last year as an even money favourite. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Ida's Rules who will roll forward from a soft draw third-up, and winkers come off.

How to play it: East Harlem to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

The girls' edition of the Winter Country Classic Qualifier is an open affair, although the stand-out value is progressive local mare 5. Starlink who can go back-to-back deep into the prep. was luckless charging home late in a BM 58 two starts ago before too strong coming from well back in a CL2. Never raced better, and the weight hike has been off-set with a 2kg claim.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for improving local 7. Pants On Fire who is hard fit, and steps up from a dominant front-running CL1 win. From a soft trailing draw, 2. Hammoon Money should be right in the finish third-up, although does rise sharply in weight. Must include in all exotic bets, 4. Sea Princess who backs up in seven days from a tougher CL3 here; and 10. Art Angel second-up.

How to play it: Starlink to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m):

The boys' qualifier is an even tougher affair, with many chances. Like the value around home track four-year-old 9. Starane who was only edged out late in a BM 58 at Wellington by one finishing hard in far superior ground. Continues to hit the line with market support, and the extra furlong with winkers back on here are key.

Dangers: Honest 2. The Mediator has been campaigning well for most of the prep on wet tracks, so any rain will be a plus coming back 300m in trip 26 days between runs via an easy trial win. Stepping up in distance, keep safe 5. Brogan's Creek who draws the fence with a senior rider back aboard; while 11. Feirme Prince peaking third-up over a longer trip; and 14. Metal Bar progressing off a CL1 win; are both capable of running into the minor money.

How to play it: Starane to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 OPEN HCP (1600m):

Another very testing battle over the mile to finish. Like progressive local mare 10. Majority who can snap a run of four straight placings up to BM 74 grade, each time hitting the line from well off the speed. While this is tougher, she has a strong weight argument staying on the limit 55kg while some of her rivals have to carry plenty more. Further advantaged if the track does drop well into soft range.

Dangers: Tough six-year-old 2. Rich And Shameless got under the market guard somewhat charging home to win a provincial BM 64 over this trip, but even against open country opposition, looks poorly treated up to 61kg. Another one rising in weight, 3. Sea Of Flames has been placed in three from four runs this prep across benchmark Country Cup races; while 4. Athena's Lad second-up from a long break; heads the rest.

How to play it: Majority to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

BEST BETS:
R3 6. DUBBO WANDERER
R6 5. STARLINK

BEST VALUE:
R5 5. EAST HARLEM

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Dubbo meeting

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