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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail true:

Race 1 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1200m):

Always one of the more competitive levels of benchmark racing gets us underway, with two runners here rating clear of the pack. Settled on home track five-year-old 1. Rylan's Pick who is building a smart record, and comes off a dominant win in similar grade, although in a race of less depth. Has a 40 percent win rate from only 15 starts, and the drop back a furlong in distance off-sets a five week freshen-up.

Dangers: Honest 4. Impact Star is a serious threat from an ideal trailing draw. Came through a strong provincial form race before finishing close-up here in similar company 13 days ago, and a far superior rider takes over. Gap to the rest headed by another local 5. Watch Me Rumble who also comes back in distance fourth-up off a five week break and tougher grade; while 2. Titled Tycoon third-up with blinkers back on from the inside draw; and 6. Jet Packs second-up with blinkers off again; can both run into the minor money.

How to play it: Rylan's Pick to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

All aboard improving and hard fit three-year-old 5. Freewheeler who is ready to strike fifth-up in a race lacking depth. Couldn't drag in the winner last start, but a longer journey on a much bigger track is the key.

Dangers: From the fence draw, keep safe local 2. High Charge who can settle closer in the run this time at his fourth start. Expecting further improvement from home track filly 6. Warrior's Kiss who ran on fairly behind a smart winner here, and a stronger jockey takes charge. Include 10. Lumin fifth-up in exotic plays.

How to play it: Freewheeler to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 3 HCP (1400m):

Plenty of chances here headed by tough home track six-year-old 1. Hit The Rim who is well placed deep into the prep. Has been finding the line from well back in deeper races, and back on a suitably spacious track, he can settle back behind a handy speed and finish over them.

Dangers: Honest three-year-old 12. Johnny Dash draws to get a sweet run, and afforded a significant weight drop fifth-up for the rises in class. Riverina visitor and last start CL2 winner 6. I Am Richenuff is a knock-out threat third-up. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Hit The Rim to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Back over the sprint trip, and nicely bred emerging four-year-old 4. Patron Of Power can break through 15 days after running home nicely on debut.

Dangers: Both home track 7. Venatic fifth-up; and at bigger odds 14. Wandering Cloud second-up from a soft draw; can fight for the quinella position.

How to play it: Patron Of Power to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

Back up in class now over the same trip, and it shapes well for progressive home tracker 8. Beau Factor second-up with blinkers going on. Chased hard all the way here resuming in a slightly deeper race, and top country jockey sticking is a further lead.

Dangers: Must respect tough mare 2. Billabong Isle who draws inside second-up with a 2kg claim on a five day back-up. The market will be a handy guide with provincial-based 1. Rejinsky who hasn't started since last spring, but given two trials, and all three career wins from 12 starts have come first-up. Improving 7. Clifton Springs dropping in weight; heads the rest.

How to play it: Beau Factor to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Behind a dominant fourth-uo maiden win here, progressive three-year-old 2. Just An Upstart can go back-to-back. Had come through very handy provincial races before rounding them up in a twinkling 13 days ago and careering away to win easily. Again draws to sit back with cover, and is destined to win much better races than this. The one to beat in a weakened affair.

Dangers: Home track mare 7. Din bolted in her maiden here two starts ago before running home okay in similar company. Would need to find a length or two, but the eight day back-up is a positive sign, especially back on the bigger home circuit. Undoubtedly, 1. Destiny's Bounty will need some early luck from the draw, but he's run home well in three starts this prep, and is capable of carrying big weights.

How to play it: Just An Upstart to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Maiden battles over tye mile are never easy, but there's very good value here aboard improving home track filly 13. Raiding third-up. Hit the line hard from well back three weeks ago, and back at home on the bigger track, she can peak over a furlong further again suited under the set weight scale after the claim.

Dangers: Naturally, metro filly and likely hot favourite 14. Tot Of Rum back in class after a string of third placings is the big threat. Was scratched from a deeper race last week, and gets blinkers added, but still threatens to go around under the odds. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Big Time Charlie who is hard fit and hit the line impressively in a handy maiden last time, but draws off the track. Include 5. Raven Scout from a much better draw in trifecta plays.

How to play it: Raiding each way and quinella 13 and 14
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

The restricted milers close the card, and it's by far the most open race of the day. Tough local mare and hard fit 8. Avalicious can bounce back after being easily run down from the front in a CL2 19 days ago. Was backed from $2.80 into $2.25, but went too hard in front, and a superior jockey has been booked for this.

Dangers: A stack of them headed by capable mare 7. Adelson who has been mixing her form in deeper races. From the inside draw third-up, keep safe 6. Chowdah up in trip fourth-up; while 1. Cherry Blue deep into his prep; 3. Hemsted who won a similar graded race at big odds two starts back; and 15. Harley Fat Boy who finished best to win a BM 58 here last start; are all capable of running into the money at big odds.

How to play it: Avalicious to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 1. RYLAN'S PICK
R6 2. JUST AN UPSTART

BEST VALUE:
R5 8. BEAU FACTOR

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Dubbo meeting

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