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Neil Evans' Tips For Dubbo (Friday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 7 and rail True.

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

We start a giant 10-race card with the maidens in a market that could chop and change right up to the jump. Local mare 3. Irene Of Athens has taken a long time to get to the track, but looked sharp bolting in a recent trial.

Dangers: Scone filly 4. Afewchoicewords comes back to an easier level fifth-up in her first prep; while both 6. Lady Aubrey and 2. All Things Great second-up; can run into the minor end of the money.

How to play it: Irene Of Athens to win and quinella 3 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Take two over the distance in what looks a slightly deeper field, but very open. Provincial filly 9. First Secret has an unflattering record and is likely to jump at double figure odds, but showed sharp improvement finishing hard from near the back 17 days ago. Has always shown a liking for rain-affected ground, and much better suited on the bigger track here. Over the odds.

Dangers: Improving three-year-old 4. Conversations has hit the line nicely in three runs back, and gets a nice weight advantage here after the claim. Include 10. Mishani Vandal and 14. The Cave in exotics.

How to play it: First Secret each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Back to the short course now, and there's any numbers of chances in a likely ultra wide market. Like the big value of Flying Artie filly 12. So Fly Baby who had no luck first-up off a long break when badly checked after a runner fell. Still picked up okay and finished off, and with that experience coupled with blinkers back on, she's a mile over the odds.

Dangers: Gulgong-based 1. Rhythmic Song is one of a few well over the mark. Stuck on strong to miss narrowly in heavy ground third-up, and despite being poorly treated at the weights, reaches peak fitness. Monitor the market too on Vancouver three-year-old 4. Strathcona on debut behind a smart soft track trial win. Include in wider exotics 10. Ready For Lift Off on debut off a recent trial win; and 11. Peniche resuming for only her second start.

How to play it: So Fly Baby each way and take the first four 1,4,12 to win from:
1,4,10,11,12 / 1,4,10,11,12 / 1,4,10,11,12
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 CLASS 3 HCP (1000m):

Tough Headwater four-year-old 1. Akaka Falls finds a suitable sprint third-up. Carried 61kg to win narrowly fresh before just missed in a handy CL2 from off the speed under the same weight. Back down to 58.5kg after the claim and right at home on soft ground.

Dangers: Capable 3. Impact Star resumes without publicly trialling, but was scratched from a winnable race at Tamworth earlier in the week to run here. Keep safe 6. Tidal Rush who is smart fresh, and returns off a quiet trial; while 4. Lady River also has plenty of first-up ability, and comes off a typical quiet trial with several key gear changes.

How to play it: Akaka Falls to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1400m):

Another open contest with plenty of chances. Like the placement of home track four-year-old 6. Morgenstern in a race with ample chances, but limited quality. Rushed home fresh to win a weaker grade carrying 59kg, and while this is tougher, he drops down to 56kg on preferred soft going.

Dangers: Rival local 1. Ferus drops in grade and weight six weeks between runs, and the big weight has been off-set by a 4kg claim. Resuming four-year-old 3. Reach Beyond is over the odds from a soft draw; while 4. McNair has more than enough ability deep into his prep, but drawn off the track.

How to play it: Morgenstern to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1200m):

One of the tougher and more open battles on the card. Keen on ultra honest four-year-old 3. Beauchamp who can make it two straight on his home track. Had to work across from the outside gate before holding them off here in a similar race two weeks ago, and with a much softer on-speed draw, will take a power of beating.

Dangers: Stablemate 5. Hit The Rim is drawn to find a nice trail, and second-up form is strong for a race like this. Keep very safe talented three-year-old 10. Arkus who didn't fire last start, but previous CL2 effort sailing home from midfield was full of merit; while tough mare and last-start CL3 winner 11. Wine Time is best of the rest.

How to play it: Beachchamp to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Testing maiden at set weights, but provincial filly 9. Cristalino can break through second-up. Was beaten a long way into a place behind a smart winner resuming in heavy ground at Mudgee, but much better suited here, and was competitive in deeper races last prep.

Dangers: Improving 5. Mojo Classic is ready to peak fourth-up a month between runs with key gear changes, but will need to slot in from an outside barrier. Another one banging on the door is tough mare 10. Elegant Poetess who has hit the line hard into a place in her last two; while both 4. McLellan and 7. Sindagar go in wider exotics.

How to play it: Cristalino each way
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Provincial mare 13. L'esperance Rock has gradually kept improving in four runs this prep. Did her best work late in a handy CL1 three weeks back, and a little drop in weight and much bigger circuit are timely plusses here.

Dangers: Keep safe 4. Martian Queen who can mix her form, but relishes soft tracks. Include 8. Spritza Seritza who is still chasing a second win ahead of her 20th start, but she's been hitting the line consistently this prep, and will appreciate the bigger track; while 10. Kneze goes in all exotics.

How to play it: L'Esperance Rock each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 9 WELLINGTON CUP (1600m):

The transferred feature race looks at the mercy of talented four-year-old import 4. Sibaaq after an impressive first Australian run hitting the line late in BM 78 company at the Gold Coast. Before leaving the UK won two of his last three up to a UK 90 rating level, and two of his bigger rivals have been scratched.

Dangers: Must keep safe last start provincial Midway winner 5. Knight who steps up in trip; while 1. Regal Stage heads the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Sibaaq to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 10 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Open sprint to finish, but no bigger value than tough and consistent three-year-old 3. Greek Tycoon who dug in hard after changing course to win his maiden at Albury fourth-up.

Dangers: Progressive 6. Minimal held his ground okay resuming in deeper class three weeks back. Both 10. Briefly third-up; and 11. Penny Halfpenny second-up; can both run into the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Greek Tycoon each way
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R6 3. BEAUCHAMP
R9 4. SIBAAQ

BEST VALUE:
R2 9. FIRST SECRET

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Dubbo meeting

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